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2022-07-05

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U.S. e-commerce stocks are oversold! Time to buy the bottom?

曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The

U.S. e-commerce stocks are oversold! Time to buy the bottom?

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Time to buy the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248395818","media":"智通财经网","summary":"曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve  Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The  RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Well-known companies that once benefited from the dividends of the epidemic<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RVLV\">Revolve Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>Both have fallen by 50% or more so far this year. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENT\">Rent The Runway</a>Such small companies that rely on online shopping have not performed very well, with some of them falling by more than 80%, even e-commerce giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Not immune, its huge business covers many industries outside its flagship e-commerce business, but the company's sales still fell by more than 35% in the middle of this year.</p><p>At a time when these most popular stocks have experienced such alarming declines, considering the possible overreaction of the market, people began to have the idea of bargain-hunting e-commerce stocks. This article will explain whether the time has come for e-commerce stocks that plummeted in the first half of this year to buy bottoms.</p><p><b>Recession risks fuel market pessimism</b></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the U.S. inflation rate rose by 8.6% in May, the highest growth level in more than 40 years. In addition to inflation, a series of reports on consumer confidence and a potential recession continue to exacerbate pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191153342ac8ca45ef819851a0055e18\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 1</p><p>In addition, the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since the Great Recession in the most recent month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8702bde8cc3fd7eaf651082b434535\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2</p><p>Joanne Hsu, head of consumer surveys, commented on the latest survey results: \"Consumer (sentiment) across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stock holdings and housing status have all seen a sharp decline, and consumers Uncertainty about long-term inflation has also reached its highest level since 1991 and has continued to rise sharply starting in 2021.\"</p><p>The survey also showed that 79% of consumers expect a bad business environment in the coming year, and 47% of respondents attributed the decline in their living standards to inflation, which is also consistent with data from the \"Great Recession\" period.</p><p>It is understood that as inflation rises and oil prices continue to soar, it will lead to a decline in living standards. Even if a severe economic recession is avoided, consumers will tighten their belts to live. As a result, many analysts are even wary of the sharp decline in e-commerce stocks so far this year as a sign of a bottom.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>According to the data, the probability of a near-term recession has doubled since spring to 26%. Although the extent of the recession is still uncertain, the bank said that even the milder scenario of 2001 means that e-commerce stocks will continue to decline.</p><p>It is understood that the bank will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(EBAY.US) and Farfetch (FTCH.US) were downgraded to \"neutral\" from \"buy\", and Amazon, Etsy, the RealReal, StitchFix, ContextLogic and MYT Netherlands price targets were also lowered.</p><p>However, not everyone is pessimistic about the outlook for internet retail. In response to COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve has launched unprecedented stimulus measures to stimulate the economy, and personal savings of American consumers have also surged after the epidemic. According to Raymond James estimates, these measures have caused more than $2 trillion in excess savings to flow to American consumers. The bank estimates that in this staggering number, only about 10% of the excess money is used by new consumer groups.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63d9e9e649855550740c674bf2e7f02\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 3</p><p>In addition, unemployment is at an all-time low despite mounting uncertainty around the business and cautious statements from tech executives. In fact, over the past two years, the surge in unemployment rates seen during layoffs in COVID-19 pandemic has flipped sharply, bringing the labor market back to an incredibly tight state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70a6bf38c385521692a95a65f218918f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 4</p><p>If inflation starts to pull back from its peak, as more optimistic economists would expect, then taken together, these indicators suggest that consumers can be said to be relatively strong despite lower consumer confidence.</p><p><b>Can U.S. e-commerce stocks buy bottoms?</b></p><p>A recent McKinsey report noted that the market's potential overestimation of economic headwinds coincides with an underestimation of everyday online retail. According to the data of this consulting firm, during the epidemic control period, the use of e-commerce in the United States increased to 3.3 times the pre-epidemic average level, especially for European markets such as Spain and the United Kingdom, and the impact was even greater.</p><p>In addition, according to the company's latest report, at the beginning of the epidemic, people started shopping online in droves without many choices. But it turns out that many people love the convenience that e-commerce offers. Spending on online channels continues to climb even as brick-and-mortar stores reopen. Since the start of the pandemic, e-commerce spending has increased by 27% year-on-year and total penetration has increased by 33%, the data shows.</p><p>It follows that consumers are still resilient and online spending is higher than many expect. Therefore, the current sell-off scale of e-commerce stocks is likely to be an overreaction of the market.</p><p>Raymond James analyst Rick Patel said: \"The share prices of the nine companies we started covering are down 57% on average year-to-date, while the Nasdaq is down 26%. This leads us to believe that most of the bad news has been priced in by the market. We Based on a survey of about 600 consumers, an investment advice framework was created to determine which companies are oversold (whose future fundamentals are likely to improve).\"</p><p>Among the recommended stocks, Etsy, Revolve Group, realreal, ThredUp, Rent the Runway (RENT.US), and Brilliant Earth are rated as Buy. Medical apparel supplier Figs Inc. was rated a \"Strong Buy\" as the company's stock is believed to have been oversold far beyond what it should be.</p><p>In this regard, Patel concluded: \"Despite the macro uncertainty, this already heralds a dire situation, and we think the market has priced in a lot of bad news. In addition, we believe that the risk/reward is conducive to the upside, especially for those high-quality companies that meet the most conditions in our investment framework.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. e-commerce stocks are oversold! 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Time to buy the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-04 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Well-known companies that once benefited from the dividends of the epidemic<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">Etsy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RVLV\">Revolve Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>Both have fallen by 50% or more so far this year. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDUP\">ThredUp</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENT\">Rent The Runway</a>Such small companies that rely on online shopping have not performed very well, with some of them falling by more than 80%, even e-commerce giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Not immune, its huge business covers many industries outside its flagship e-commerce business, but the company's sales still fell by more than 35% in the middle of this year.</p><p>At a time when these most popular stocks have experienced such alarming declines, considering the possible overreaction of the market, people began to have the idea of bargain-hunting e-commerce stocks. This article will explain whether the time has come for e-commerce stocks that plummeted in the first half of this year to buy bottoms.</p><p><b>Recession risks fuel market pessimism</b></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the U.S. inflation rate rose by 8.6% in May, the highest growth level in more than 40 years. In addition to inflation, a series of reports on consumer confidence and a potential recession continue to exacerbate pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191153342ac8ca45ef819851a0055e18\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 1</p><p>In addition, the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since the Great Recession in the most recent month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8702bde8cc3fd7eaf651082b434535\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2</p><p>Joanne Hsu, head of consumer surveys, commented on the latest survey results: \"Consumer (sentiment) across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stock holdings and housing status have all seen a sharp decline, and consumers Uncertainty about long-term inflation has also reached its highest level since 1991 and has continued to rise sharply starting in 2021.\"</p><p>The survey also showed that 79% of consumers expect a bad business environment in the coming year, and 47% of respondents attributed the decline in their living standards to inflation, which is also consistent with data from the \"Great Recession\" period.</p><p>It is understood that as inflation rises and oil prices continue to soar, it will lead to a decline in living standards. Even if a severe economic recession is avoided, consumers will tighten their belts to live. As a result, many analysts are even wary of the sharp decline in e-commerce stocks so far this year as a sign of a bottom.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>According to the data, the probability of a near-term recession has doubled since spring to 26%. Although the extent of the recession is still uncertain, the bank said that even the milder scenario of 2001 means that e-commerce stocks will continue to decline.</p><p>It is understood that the bank will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(EBAY.US) and Farfetch (FTCH.US) were downgraded to \"neutral\" from \"buy\", and Amazon, Etsy, the RealReal, StitchFix, ContextLogic and MYT Netherlands price targets were also lowered.</p><p>However, not everyone is pessimistic about the outlook for internet retail. In response to COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve has launched unprecedented stimulus measures to stimulate the economy, and personal savings of American consumers have also surged after the epidemic. According to Raymond James estimates, these measures have caused more than $2 trillion in excess savings to flow to American consumers. The bank estimates that in this staggering number, only about 10% of the excess money is used by new consumer groups.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63d9e9e649855550740c674bf2e7f02\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 3</p><p>In addition, unemployment is at an all-time low despite mounting uncertainty around the business and cautious statements from tech executives. In fact, over the past two years, the surge in unemployment rates seen during layoffs in COVID-19 pandemic has flipped sharply, bringing the labor market back to an incredibly tight state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70a6bf38c385521692a95a65f218918f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 4</p><p>If inflation starts to pull back from its peak, as more optimistic economists would expect, then taken together, these indicators suggest that consumers can be said to be relatively strong despite lower consumer confidence.</p><p><b>Can U.S. e-commerce stocks buy bottoms?</b></p><p>A recent McKinsey report noted that the market's potential overestimation of economic headwinds coincides with an underestimation of everyday online retail. According to the data of this consulting firm, during the epidemic control period, the use of e-commerce in the United States increased to 3.3 times the pre-epidemic average level, especially for European markets such as Spain and the United Kingdom, and the impact was even greater.</p><p>In addition, according to the company's latest report, at the beginning of the epidemic, people started shopping online in droves without many choices. But it turns out that many people love the convenience that e-commerce offers. Spending on online channels continues to climb even as brick-and-mortar stores reopen. Since the start of the pandemic, e-commerce spending has increased by 27% year-on-year and total penetration has increased by 33%, the data shows.</p><p>It follows that consumers are still resilient and online spending is higher than many expect. Therefore, the current sell-off scale of e-commerce stocks is likely to be an overreaction of the market.</p><p>Raymond James analyst Rick Patel said: \"The share prices of the nine companies we started covering are down 57% on average year-to-date, while the Nasdaq is down 26%. This leads us to believe that most of the bad news has been priced in by the market. We Based on a survey of about 600 consumers, an investment advice framework was created to determine which companies are oversold (whose future fundamentals are likely to improve).\"</p><p>Among the recommended stocks, Etsy, Revolve Group, realreal, ThredUp, Rent the Runway (RENT.US), and Brilliant Earth are rated as Buy. Medical apparel supplier Figs Inc. was rated a \"Strong Buy\" as the company's stock is believed to have been oversold far beyond what it should be.</p><p>In this regard, Patel concluded: \"Despite the macro uncertainty, this already heralds a dire situation, and we think the market has priced in a lot of bad news. In addition, we believe that the risk/reward is conducive to the upside, especially for those high-quality companies that meet the most conditions in our investment framework.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/749143.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a9d56257006191bc6800facfd4bdb2","relate_stocks":{"W":"Wayfair","REAL":"The RealReal","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","TDUP":"ThredUp Inc.","RENT":"Rent the Runway, Inc.","RVLV":"Revolve Group, LLC","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/749143.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2248395818","content_text":"曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve  Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The  RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The  Runway这样依赖网购的小型公司的表现也不太好，其中一些公司的跌幅甚至超过80%，就连电商巨头亚马逊也未能幸免，其庞大的业务涵盖了其旗舰电商业务之外的众多行业，但该公司今年年中销售额下滑幅度仍超过35%。在这些最受欢迎的股票出现如此惊人的下跌之际，考虑到市场可能出现反应过度的情况，人们便开始有了抄底电商股的想法。本文将阐述今年上半年暴跌的电商股是否抄底时机已到。经济衰退风险加剧市场悲观情绪智通财经APP获悉，美国5月通胀率上升8.6%，创下40多年来的最高增长水平，除通胀外，消费者信心和潜在衰退的一系列报告继续加剧悲观情绪。图1此外，消费者信心指数在最近一个月下降到大衰退以来的最低水平。图2消费者调查主管Joanne  Hsu对最新调查结果评论道:“不同收入、年龄、教育程度、地理区域、政治党派、股票持有情况和住房状况的消费者(情绪)都出现了大幅下降，消费者对长期通货膨胀的不确定性也达到了1991年以来的最高水平，从2021年开始持续大幅上升。”调查还显示，79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业环境会很糟糕，47%的受访者将他们生活水平的下降归因于通货膨胀，这也与“大衰退”时期的数据一致。据了解，随着通货膨胀加剧和油价持续飙升，将导致生活水平的下降，即使避免了严重的经济衰退，消费者也会勒紧裤腰带过日子。因此，许多分析师甚至对今年迄今电商股的大幅下跌持谨慎态度，认为这是底部的迹象。根据瑞银的数据，自春季以来，近期经济衰退的可能性翻了一番，达到26%。尽管衰退程度尚不确定，但该行表示，即便是2001年那种较为温和的情景，也意味着电商股将持续下行。据了解，该行在一份研报中将eBay(EBAY.US)和Farfetch(FTCH.US)评级从“买入”下调为“中性”，亚马逊、Etsy、the  RealReal、StitchFix、ContextLogic和MYT  Netherlands目标价也被下调。然而，并非所有人都对互联网零售的前景感到悲观。为了应对新冠疫情，美联储为了刺激经济展开前所未有的刺激措施，而美国消费者的个人储蓄也在疫情后激增。据Raymond  James估计，这些措施导致逾2万亿美元的过剩储蓄流向美国消费者。该银行估计，在这个惊人的数字中，只有大约10%的过剩资金被新消费群体使用。图3此外，尽管业务的不确定性不断增加，科技公司高管也发表了谨慎的声明，但失业率仍处于历史最低水平。事实上，在过去两年中，新冠疫情裁员期间出现的失业率激增已经急剧翻转，使劳动力市场恢复到令人难以置信的紧张状态。图4如果通胀像更为乐观的经济学家所预期的那样开始从峰值回落，那么综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管消费者信心下降，但可以说消费者仍相对强劲。美股电商股能抄底吗?麦肯锡最近的一份报告指出，市场对经济逆风的潜在高估，与对日常在线零售的低估相吻合。根据这家咨询公司的数据，在受疫情管控期间，美国电子商务使用量增长到疫情前平均水平的3.3倍，尤其对于西班牙和英国等欧洲市场，影响甚至更大。此外，据该公司最新报告指出，疫情开始时，人们没有太多选择，就开始成群结队地在网上购物。但事实证明，许多人喜欢电子商务提供的便利。即使实体店重新开张，在线渠道的支出也在继续攀升。数据显示，自疫情开始以来，电子商务支出同比增长了27%，总渗透率增加了33%。由此可见，消费者仍有弹性，网上消费比许多人预期的要高。因此，当前电商股的抛售规模很有可能是市场反应过度。Raymond James分析师Rick  Patel表示：“我们开始报道的9家公司今年迄今股价平均下跌了57%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了26%。这让我们相信，大部分坏消息已被市场消化。我们根据对约600名消费者的调查，创建了一个投资建议框架，以确定哪些公司出现了超卖(这些公司的未来基本面可能会改善)。”在推荐的股票中，Etsy、Revolve Group、realreal、ThredUp、Rent the  Runway(RENT.US)和Brilliant Earth被评为“买入”。医疗服装供应商Figs  Inc.被评为“强力买入”，因为该公司的股票被认为出现了远远超出其应有水平的过度抛售。对此，Patel总结道：“尽管宏观上存在不确定性，但这已经预示着一种可怕的局面，而且我们认为市场已经消化了大量的坏消息。此外，我们相信风险/回报有利于上涨，尤其是对那些在我们投资框架中符合最多条件的高质量公司。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RVLV":0.9,"RENT":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"REAL":0.9,"TDUP":0.9,"SHOP":0.9,"W":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}