To The Moon

At yesterday's close, the three major indexes closed down collectively, with $DJIA(.DJI)$ down 0.82%, the$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ down 1.33%, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.88%. So far, in the first half of 2022, the S&P 500 has fallen by 20.58%, setting the worst first half performance since 1970. The Nasdaq has fallen by 29.51% and the Dow by 15.31%. At the same time, the "panic index"$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ jumped nearly 67%.Not only U.S. stocks, but the world's major stock indexes were bleak in the first half of the year. The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell .69% to top the list, and the Nasdaq index fell to the bottom with a 29.51% decline.

Five S&P industries fell by more than 20%, of which the information technology industry was at the bottom with a decline of 34.01%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 36% in half a year, $Apple(AAPL)$ fell 23%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ fell 24%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 25%, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 52%, and $Netflix(NFLX)$ fell 71%.

On the contrary, the energy industry rose 23.95% against the trend, and energy stocks performed very strongly. $Occidental(OXY)$ rose nearly 105%, $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ rose more than 44%, $ConocoPhillips(COP)$ and $Chevron(CVX)$ both rose more than 26%.

In the futures market, energy is also "unmatched", with Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both rising by more than 40%. Agricultural product futures rose one after another, and the "demon nickel" after the storm also rose by nearly 10%.

Similar to the situation where the S&P 500 fell by more than 15%, since 1932, it has only happened 5 times, and in these 5 cases, the S&P 500 rebounded in the second half of the year, with an average increase of 3.66%

So can U.S. stocks get out of the bear market in the second half of the year?

JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic, known as Wall Street's "dead bull", is quite optimistic:

Investors should brace for a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy for strong stock returns in the second half of 2022

George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris, believes that the bottom of the S&P 500 index should be around 3,100 points. The US stock market has not bottomed out yet, and investors should hold more cash.

Alan Sai, multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, said: "The market is stuck at best until we get a signal that inflation is peaking.

Which sectors are worthy of attention in the second half of the year?

JPMorgan Chase: Buy cyclical stocks including energy sector, avoid defensive stocks including consumer staples, utilities, small caps and growth stocks have opportunities.

Citi: Bullish on investment-grade bonds

Industrial Securities: Optimistic about A shares and Hong Kong stocks, focusing on new energy vehicles, Internet, property management, sports shoes, clothing, social services, catering and other industries

Tiger friends, do you think the U.S. stock market can get out of the bear market in the second half of the year?

Which industries, sectors, and stocks are worthy of attention in the second half of the year?

What do you think your earnings target for the second half of the year is?

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