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2022-02-26

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How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the global economy? These are the most important issues

全球经济会陷入三年内的第二次衰退吗？

How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the global economy? These are the most important issues

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9039991754,"tweetId":"9039991754","gmtCreate":1645867410125,"gmtModify":1676534071562,"author":{"id":3569380120080661,"idStr":"3569380120080661","authorId":3569380120080661,"authorIdStr":"3569380120080661","name":"WilsonYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8169dc61cdf1f64665c91e38fa6c126","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.15%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":24,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>❗️</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>❗️</p></body></html>","text":"❗️","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039991754","repostId":2214809921,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2214809921","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645857978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214809921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the global economy? These are the most important issues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214809921","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球经济会陷入三年内的第二次衰退吗？","content":"<p><html><body>The Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe's worst since the end of World War II in 1945, has shattered hopes for a strong global economic recovery from the epidemic, at least in the short term.</p><p>These effects can be relatively limited or extremely severe.<strong>But if energy prices continue to soar, the global economy could easily fall into its second recession in three years.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Rabobank global strategist Michael Every said the combination of prolonged conflict and tough sanctions could bring \"the kind of shock we experienced during our time in COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p>From an industry perspective, experts have warned that Russia's military action against Ukraine could disrupt exports of key commodities and disrupt supply chains,<strong>Disruption to Russian exports will hit a wide range of industries from fertilizer makers to food, auto and aircraft makers</strong>, multinational companies operating in the region are preparing to deal with the impact.</p><p>Russia, like Ukraine, is a famous exporter of oil and gas and a major food supplier in the world.<strong>These two countries account for nearly a third of global wheat exports.</strong>In addition to this, Russia is an important source of manufacturing metals such as nickel, titanium, palladium and aluminum.</p><p>How hard this conflict ultimately hits the global economy will depend on its duration and scope, the severity of Western sanctions and how Russia acts.</p><p><strong>This article will elaborate on the impact of the war on various sectors of the economy, how it will affect commodities, inflation and central bank monetary policy, and how it will hurt various industries.</strong></p><p><h2>Will energy prices continue to rise?</h2>Russia, the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe, undoubtedly took the lead in bringing an impact to commodity markets.</p><p>Recently, European natural gas futures prices have soared, and the energy industry is facing supply disruptions; Oil prices also topped $100/barrel, reaching their highest level since 2014.</p><p>Financial pressures from soaring natural gas prices have forced several large metal producers to cut production and close smelters.</p><p>Russia is the third largest oil producer in the world, producing about 10 million barrels of crude oil per day. Trafigura, one of the world's largest commodity traders, said the price of Russian crude oil has been discounted, indicating that buyers' preference for Russian goods has begun to fade.</p><p>Investment Bank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Indicates,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>TotalEnergies is the European oil producer with the largest investment in Russia. BP owns nearly 20% of Rosneft, one of Russia's largest oil producers. Last year, the stakes generated more than $2.4 billion in profits for BP, from which it made $640 million in gains.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo said that one possible scenario is that,<strong>Ukraine's gas pipelines will be sabotaged, or Russia will stop gas pipelines through Ukraine.</strong>Last year, Ukrainian gas accounted for about 8% of Russia's total exports to Europe.<strong>Europe relies on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas supplies.</strong></p><p>Because Russia is also an important source of raw materials for manufacturing, manufacturing companies are bracing for rising costs and potential supply disruptions.</p><p>At the same time, Russia is also a major producer of platinum and palladium, two precious metals used to remove toxic emissions from automobile exhaust.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Natasha Kaneva said:</p><p>The risk of supply disruption from Russian platinum group is very high, which accounts for 12% of global platinum ore supply and 40% of global palladium supply.</p><p>Ukraine-based Ferrexpo is the world's third largest exporter of high-quality iron ore pellets. The company said its mining and processing facilities in central Ukraine are operating normally despite the government's suspension of rail shipments. The company's shares plunged 42.5 pc on Thursday, making it the biggest loser on the FTSE 250.</p><p><h2>U.S. inflation reaches 9%?</h2>The surge in energy costs accounted for more than half of the eurozone's record inflation rate in January. Economists believe that,<strong>Coupled with the impact of oil prices, the inflation rate in the euro zone may reach 3% by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, pointed out:</p><p>Our model shows that in a worst-case scenario, oil prices could rise to $120-$140 per barrel.</p><p>If this continues through the rest of the year, we see a corresponding increase in European gas prices, which would increase inflation by about 2 percentage points in advanced economies, higher in Europe and lower in the United States. So that's an additional squeeze on real revenue.</p><p>He added that the sanctions-triggered recession in Russia could also have other spillover effects. But the eurozone may emerge from recession, and the possibility of an ECB rate hike in December remains.</p><p>In the United States, rising gasoline prices and modest financial tightening will drag on economic growth. The U.S. is likely to ship more gas to Europe, driving up domestic prices.</p><p>Bloomberg analysis pointed out that as oil and gas continue to flow,<strong>U.S. headline CPI inflation may exceed 8% in February</strong>, close to 5% by the end of the year, compared with 3.3% previously believed by the market.<strong>Once the energy supply is disrupted, it may push the U.S. inflation rate to 9% in March and remain close to 6% by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>There is also a view that while the continued rise in oil prices will hit shale oil and gas producers, it will also hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Consumers, but overall, the United States will be relatively unaffected.</p><p><h2><strong>Are financial markets able to withstand geopolitical shocks?</strong></h2>Affected by geopolitical risks, major global financial markets fell sharply.</p><p>Shearing also noted that despite the sell-off in stocks, bond yields have fallen and credit spreads have not widened much,<strong>This shows that the market reaction is orderly, but it doesn't mean that the market expects a larger conflict in Europe.</strong></p><p>Many emerging economies have suffered more violent shocks. According to the Financial Times, Kevin Daly, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, pointed to the sharp sell-off in stocks in countries such as Ghana, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan as investors fled to safety from financially fragile countries.</p><p>Randy Kroszner, associate dean of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former Federal Reserve governor, said the risk of a recession will be reflected in the difference between investment-grade bond yields and non-investment-grade bond yields, which did not broaden widely on Thursday.</p><p>He added that the sovereign debt yields of countries geographically close to the crisis are a good indicator to judge whether the market is beginning to worry about a wider conflict.</p><p>At the same time, it is crucial to the global economy that,<strong>Whether households and businesses will be noticeably more cautious-spending less, saving more-in the face of Russia's actions.</strong></p><p>Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a slowdown in growth was inevitable:</p><p>Consumer confidence everywhere will weaken further... This necessarily means that,<strong>Economic growth in Europe, the United States and most emerging markets will be slower than expected.</strong></p><p>\"Depending on how long this crisis lasts, there could be a significant loss of confidence among businesses and consumers,\" said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p>There are also risks that are difficult to quantify, such as Russian cyber attacks. The New York Fed estimates that attacks on the payment systems of the five most active banks in the United States could affect 38% of the total assets of banks, leading to liquidity hoarding and bankruptcy in the worst case scenario.</p><p><h2>Macroeconomic risks-will the central bank still follow the rate hike step by step?</h2>Economists currently believe that if the crisis deals a major blow to global markets,<strong>Could increase pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.</strong></p><p>The worst outcome is a disruption of natural gas supplies in Europe, triggering an economic recession, while financial conditions in the United States will tighten significantly and economic growth will be hit harder,<strong>The Fed will be significantly more dovish and the pace of policy tightening will slow.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said the military operation<strong>\"Make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>The ability of central banks on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to achieve a soft landing in the face of widespread inflation surges is complicated '</strong>, he expects financial markets to lower expectations for central bank rate hike.</p><p>Still, it is likely that the Fed will look beyond temporary price shocks and continue with its plan to begin a rate hike in March, although probably not by as much as 50 basis points.</p><p>Cleveland Fed President Mester said Thursday:</p><p>Barring an unexpected turnaround in the economy, I think it is appropriate to raise Federal Funds rate in March and further rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>In the face of sanctions from the United States and Europe, Russia may retaliate by cutting off gas supplies to Europe.</p><p><strong>The European Central Bank estimates that a 10% natural gas supply shock may reduce euro zone GDP by 0.7%. If this ratio is expanded to 40%, it means that the European economy will shrink by 3%. That could see the ECB cancel the rate hike this year.</strong></p><p>Others, such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil exporters, may benefit. But for most emerging markets already experiencing a slow recovery, higher prices and capital outflows could deal a major blow and exacerbate the risk of a post-pandemic debt crisis. Turkey is an extreme case: as a major energy importer, before the Ukraine crisis, Turkey's currency had depreciated sharply and its inflation rate was soaring.</p><p><h2>Is the industry capable of withstanding this \"unprecedented disruption\"?</h2>From the perspective of the semiconductor industry, Russia and Ukraine are the main sources of C4F6 and neon, chemical gases that are crucial in semiconductor production.</p><p>If Ukrainian supplies are severely hindered for an extended period of time,<strong>Chipmakers are likely to be one of the most affected industries.</strong>Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers of large amounts of rare gases used in chip manufacturing, especially neon used in chips.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Richard Betzendahl, an independent consultant specializing in rare gases, said,<strong>Ukraine produces a quarter of the global total of neon.</strong>He added that the shortage of xenon and krypton, which are crucial to the semiconductor manufacturing industry, will also intensify.</p><p><strong>The crisis will undoubtedly also hit Russia's banking sector hard after sanctions were imposed by the EU and the United States.</strong></p><p>Shares in Austrian bank Raiffeisen, which makes more than a third of its profits from Russia, fell 20% on Thursday. UniCredit and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Societe Generale</a>Shares all fell by more than 11%.</p><p>FRANCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">Industrial Bank</a>Moscow-based subsidiary Rosbank has 550 branches and 3.1 million customers, while UniCredit has 103 branches and 2 million customers in Russia.</p><p>Russia accounted for 6% of UniCredit's profits and 4% of Societe Generale's profits last year, according to JPMorgan. Raiffeisen, Societe Generale and UniCredit are the 9th, 10th and 11th largest banks in Russia in terms of total assets, respectively.</p><p>All three banks said they were closely monitoring developments but insisted their operations in Russia were well capitalized to handle massive withdrawals from customers and said they would continue to operate in a \"fully compliant manner.\"</p><p><strong>In addition, the service industry is also facing unprecedented chaos.</strong></p><p>Law firms and consulting firms with offices in Russia are developing contingency plans in response to possible \"retaliation\" from Moscow over Western sanctions.</p><p>McKinsey & Company and Boston Consulting Group each have more than 400 employees in Moscow, while magic circle, five business law firms in the UK, have more than 150 lawyers in Russia.</p><p>Large international law firms in Ukraine, including CMS, Dentons and Baker McKenzie, temporarily closed their offices in Ukraine on Thursday morning and have been helping move employees to EU bases.</p><p>Dentons said it would move lawyers in Ukraine to other offices if requested.</p><p>Accounting and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which has three offices in Ukraine, said it was trying to keep its business running \"as normally as possible\" but on Thursday advised its 750 employees in Ukraine to stay home. Accountants firm KPMG said it \"remains committed to maintaining a local presence\". KPMG has 4,000 employees in Russia and 600 in Ukraine.</p><p>A person from a consulting company said:<strong>\"Letting people leave is absolutely unprecedented chaos.\"</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the global economy? 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These are the most important issues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-26 14:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>The Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe's worst since the end of World War II in 1945, has shattered hopes for a strong global economic recovery from the epidemic, at least in the short term.</p><p>These effects can be relatively limited or extremely severe.<strong>But if energy prices continue to soar, the global economy could easily fall into its second recession in three years.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Rabobank global strategist Michael Every said the combination of prolonged conflict and tough sanctions could bring \"the kind of shock we experienced during our time in COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p>From an industry perspective, experts have warned that Russia's military action against Ukraine could disrupt exports of key commodities and disrupt supply chains,<strong>Disruption to Russian exports will hit a wide range of industries from fertilizer makers to food, auto and aircraft makers</strong>, multinational companies operating in the region are preparing to deal with the impact.</p><p>Russia, like Ukraine, is a famous exporter of oil and gas and a major food supplier in the world.<strong>These two countries account for nearly a third of global wheat exports.</strong>In addition to this, Russia is an important source of manufacturing metals such as nickel, titanium, palladium and aluminum.</p><p>How hard this conflict ultimately hits the global economy will depend on its duration and scope, the severity of Western sanctions and how Russia acts.</p><p><strong>This article will elaborate on the impact of the war on various sectors of the economy, how it will affect commodities, inflation and central bank monetary policy, and how it will hurt various industries.</strong></p><p><h2>Will energy prices continue to rise?</h2>Russia, the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe, undoubtedly took the lead in bringing an impact to commodity markets.</p><p>Recently, European natural gas futures prices have soared, and the energy industry is facing supply disruptions; Oil prices also topped $100/barrel, reaching their highest level since 2014.</p><p>Financial pressures from soaring natural gas prices have forced several large metal producers to cut production and close smelters.</p><p>Russia is the third largest oil producer in the world, producing about 10 million barrels of crude oil per day. Trafigura, one of the world's largest commodity traders, said the price of Russian crude oil has been discounted, indicating that buyers' preference for Russian goods has begun to fade.</p><p>Investment Bank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies</a>Indicates,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>TotalEnergies is the European oil producer with the largest investment in Russia. BP owns nearly 20% of Rosneft, one of Russia's largest oil producers. Last year, the stakes generated more than $2.4 billion in profits for BP, from which it made $640 million in gains.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Jefferies analyst Giacomo Romeo said that one possible scenario is that,<strong>Ukraine's gas pipelines will be sabotaged, or Russia will stop gas pipelines through Ukraine.</strong>Last year, Ukrainian gas accounted for about 8% of Russia's total exports to Europe.<strong>Europe relies on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas supplies.</strong></p><p>Because Russia is also an important source of raw materials for manufacturing, manufacturing companies are bracing for rising costs and potential supply disruptions.</p><p>At the same time, Russia is also a major producer of platinum and palladium, two precious metals used to remove toxic emissions from automobile exhaust.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Natasha Kaneva said:</p><p>The risk of supply disruption from Russian platinum group is very high, which accounts for 12% of global platinum ore supply and 40% of global palladium supply.</p><p>Ukraine-based Ferrexpo is the world's third largest exporter of high-quality iron ore pellets. The company said its mining and processing facilities in central Ukraine are operating normally despite the government's suspension of rail shipments. The company's shares plunged 42.5 pc on Thursday, making it the biggest loser on the FTSE 250.</p><p><h2>U.S. inflation reaches 9%?</h2>The surge in energy costs accounted for more than half of the eurozone's record inflation rate in January. Economists believe that,<strong>Coupled with the impact of oil prices, the inflation rate in the euro zone may reach 3% by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, pointed out:</p><p>Our model shows that in a worst-case scenario, oil prices could rise to $120-$140 per barrel.</p><p>If this continues through the rest of the year, we see a corresponding increase in European gas prices, which would increase inflation by about 2 percentage points in advanced economies, higher in Europe and lower in the United States. So that's an additional squeeze on real revenue.</p><p>He added that the sanctions-triggered recession in Russia could also have other spillover effects. But the eurozone may emerge from recession, and the possibility of an ECB rate hike in December remains.</p><p>In the United States, rising gasoline prices and modest financial tightening will drag on economic growth. The U.S. is likely to ship more gas to Europe, driving up domestic prices.</p><p>Bloomberg analysis pointed out that as oil and gas continue to flow,<strong>U.S. headline CPI inflation may exceed 8% in February</strong>, close to 5% by the end of the year, compared with 3.3% previously believed by the market.<strong>Once the energy supply is disrupted, it may push the U.S. inflation rate to 9% in March and remain close to 6% by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>There is also a view that while the continued rise in oil prices will hit shale oil and gas producers, it will also hurt<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Consumers, but overall, the United States will be relatively unaffected.</p><p><h2><strong>Are financial markets able to withstand geopolitical shocks?</strong></h2>Affected by geopolitical risks, major global financial markets fell sharply.</p><p>Shearing also noted that despite the sell-off in stocks, bond yields have fallen and credit spreads have not widened much,<strong>This shows that the market reaction is orderly, but it doesn't mean that the market expects a larger conflict in Europe.</strong></p><p>Many emerging economies have suffered more violent shocks. According to the Financial Times, Kevin Daly, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, pointed to the sharp sell-off in stocks in countries such as Ghana, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan as investors fled to safety from financially fragile countries.</p><p>Randy Kroszner, associate dean of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former Federal Reserve governor, said the risk of a recession will be reflected in the difference between investment-grade bond yields and non-investment-grade bond yields, which did not broaden widely on Thursday.</p><p>He added that the sovereign debt yields of countries geographically close to the crisis are a good indicator to judge whether the market is beginning to worry about a wider conflict.</p><p>At the same time, it is crucial to the global economy that,<strong>Whether households and businesses will be noticeably more cautious-spending less, saving more-in the face of Russia's actions.</strong></p><p>Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a slowdown in growth was inevitable:</p><p>Consumer confidence everywhere will weaken further... This necessarily means that,<strong>Economic growth in Europe, the United States and most emerging markets will be slower than expected.</strong></p><p>\"Depending on how long this crisis lasts, there could be a significant loss of confidence among businesses and consumers,\" said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p>There are also risks that are difficult to quantify, such as Russian cyber attacks. The New York Fed estimates that attacks on the payment systems of the five most active banks in the United States could affect 38% of the total assets of banks, leading to liquidity hoarding and bankruptcy in the worst case scenario.</p><p><h2>Macroeconomic risks-will the central bank still follow the rate hike step by step?</h2>Economists currently believe that if the crisis deals a major blow to global markets,<strong>Could increase pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.</strong></p><p>The worst outcome is a disruption of natural gas supplies in Europe, triggering an economic recession, while financial conditions in the United States will tighten significantly and economic growth will be hit harder,<strong>The Fed will be significantly more dovish and the pace of policy tightening will slow.</strong></p><p>According to the Financial Times, Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said the military operation<strong>\"Make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>The ability of central banks on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to achieve a soft landing in the face of widespread inflation surges is complicated '</strong>, he expects financial markets to lower expectations for central bank rate hike.</p><p>Still, it is likely that the Fed will look beyond temporary price shocks and continue with its plan to begin a rate hike in March, although probably not by as much as 50 basis points.</p><p>Cleveland Fed President Mester said Thursday:</p><p>Barring an unexpected turnaround in the economy, I think it is appropriate to raise Federal Funds rate in March and further rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>In the face of sanctions from the United States and Europe, Russia may retaliate by cutting off gas supplies to Europe.</p><p><strong>The European Central Bank estimates that a 10% natural gas supply shock may reduce euro zone GDP by 0.7%. If this ratio is expanded to 40%, it means that the European economy will shrink by 3%. That could see the ECB cancel the rate hike this year.</strong></p><p>Others, such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil exporters, may benefit. But for most emerging markets already experiencing a slow recovery, higher prices and capital outflows could deal a major blow and exacerbate the risk of a post-pandemic debt crisis. Turkey is an extreme case: as a major energy importer, before the Ukraine crisis, Turkey's currency had depreciated sharply and its inflation rate was soaring.</p><p><h2>Is the industry capable of withstanding this \"unprecedented disruption\"?</h2>From the perspective of the semiconductor industry, Russia and Ukraine are the main sources of C4F6 and neon, chemical gases that are crucial in semiconductor production.</p><p>If Ukrainian supplies are severely hindered for an extended period of time,<strong>Chipmakers are likely to be one of the most affected industries.</strong>Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers of large amounts of rare gases used in chip manufacturing, especially neon used in chips.</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Richard Betzendahl, an independent consultant specializing in rare gases, said,<strong>Ukraine produces a quarter of the global total of neon.</strong>He added that the shortage of xenon and krypton, which are crucial to the semiconductor manufacturing industry, will also intensify.</p><p><strong>The crisis will undoubtedly also hit Russia's banking sector hard after sanctions were imposed by the EU and the United States.</strong></p><p>Shares in Austrian bank Raiffeisen, which makes more than a third of its profits from Russia, fell 20% on Thursday. UniCredit and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Societe Generale</a>Shares all fell by more than 11%.</p><p>FRANCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">Industrial Bank</a>Moscow-based subsidiary Rosbank has 550 branches and 3.1 million customers, while UniCredit has 103 branches and 2 million customers in Russia.</p><p>Russia accounted for 6% of UniCredit's profits and 4% of Societe Generale's profits last year, according to JPMorgan. Raiffeisen, Societe Generale and UniCredit are the 9th, 10th and 11th largest banks in Russia in terms of total assets, respectively.</p><p>All three banks said they were closely monitoring developments but insisted their operations in Russia were well capitalized to handle massive withdrawals from customers and said they would continue to operate in a \"fully compliant manner.\"</p><p><strong>In addition, the service industry is also facing unprecedented chaos.</strong></p><p>Law firms and consulting firms with offices in Russia are developing contingency plans in response to possible \"retaliation\" from Moscow over Western sanctions.</p><p>McKinsey & Company and Boston Consulting Group each have more than 400 employees in Moscow, while magic circle, five business law firms in the UK, have more than 150 lawyers in Russia.</p><p>Large international law firms in Ukraine, including CMS, Dentons and Baker McKenzie, temporarily closed their offices in Ukraine on Thursday morning and have been helping move employees to EU bases.</p><p>Dentons said it would move lawyers in Ukraine to other offices if requested.</p><p>Accounting and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which has three offices in Ukraine, said it was trying to keep its business running \"as normally as possible\" but on Thursday advised its 750 employees in Ukraine to stay home. Accountants firm KPMG said it \"remains committed to maintaining a local presence\". KPMG has 4,000 employees in Russia and 600 in Ukraine.</p><p>A person from a consulting company said:<strong>\"Letting people leave is absolutely unprecedented chaos.\"</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652852\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UNG":"美国天然气基金","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652852","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214809921","content_text":"俄乌这场自1945年二战结束以来欧洲最严重的冲突，至少在短期内打破了全球经济从疫情中强劲复苏的希望。\n这些影响可能相对有限，也可能极其严重。但如果能源价格继续飙升，全球经济很容易陷入三年内的第二次衰退。\n据英国金融时报报道，荷兰合作银行全球策略师Michael Every表示，长期冲突和严厉制裁的结合可能会带来“我们在新冠疫情期间经历的那种冲击”。\n从行业来看，专家警告称，俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动可能会扰乱关键大宗商品的出口并破坏供应链，俄罗斯出口的中断将打击从化肥制造商到食品、汽车和飞机制造商等众多行业，在该地区开展业务的跨国公司正准备应对这种影响。\n俄罗斯和乌克兰一样，都是著名的石油和天然气出口大国，也是世界上主要的粮食供应国。这两个国家占全球小麦出口的近三分之一。除此之外，俄罗斯还是镍、钛、钯和铝等制造业金属的重要来源。\n这场冲突最终对全球经济造成多大打击，将取决于其持续时间和范围、西方制裁的严重程度以及俄罗斯采取怎样的行动。\n本文将详细阐述战争对各个经济领域的冲击，它将如何影响大宗商品、通胀和央行的货币政策，以及又会对各个行业造成怎样的伤害。\n能源价格还会继续上涨吗？\n俄罗斯作为欧洲石油和天然气的主要供应国，这场危机无疑率先给大宗商品市场带来冲击。\n近日，欧洲天然气期货价格飙升，能源行业正面临供应中断的局面；油价也突破100美元/桶，达到2014年以来的最高水平。\n天然气价格飙升造成的财务压力已迫使数家大型金属生产商削减产量，并关闭冶炼厂。\n俄罗斯是世界第三大石油生产国，日产原油约1000万桶。全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一托克公司（Trafigura）表示，俄罗斯原油价格已经出现了折扣，表明买家对俄罗斯货物的偏好已经开始消退。\n投资银行杰富瑞表示，英国石油公司和道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）是在俄罗斯投资最多的欧洲石油生产商。英国石油公司拥有俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）近20%的股份，后者是俄罗斯最大的石油生产商之一。去年，这些股份为英国石油公司创造了超过24亿美元的利润，并从中获得了6.4亿美元的收益。\n据英国金融时报报道，杰富瑞分析师Giacomo Romeo表示，一种可能的情况是，乌克兰的天然气管道将遭到破坏，或者俄罗斯将停止通过乌克兰的天然气管道输送。去年，乌克兰天然气占俄罗斯对欧洲出口总量的8%左右，欧洲大约有40%的天然气供应依赖俄罗斯。\n因为俄罗斯还是制造业原材料的重要来源，制造业企业正准备应对成本上升和潜在供应中断的局面。\n与此同时，俄罗斯还是铂金和钯金的主要生产国，这两种贵金属用于去除汽车尾气中的有毒排放物。\n摩根大通分析师Natasha Kaneva表示：\n\n俄罗斯铂金集团供应中断的风险非常大，该国占全球铂矿供应的12%，占全球钯金供应的40%。\n\n总部位于乌克兰的Ferrexpo是全球第三大高质量铁矿石颗粒出口商。该公司表示，尽管政府暂停了铁路运输，但其位于乌克兰中部的采矿和加工设施仍在正常运营。该公司股价周四暴跌42.5%，成为富时250指数中跌幅最大的公司。\n美国通胀率达到9%？\n能源成本的飙升占了欧元区1月份创纪录通胀率的一半以上。经济学家认为，叠加油价的影响，欧元区的通胀率到年底可能会达到3%。\n据英国金融时报报道，凯投宏观（Capital Economics）首席经济学家Neil Shearing指出：\n\n我们的模型显示，在最坏的情况下，油价可能升至每桶120-140美元。\n如果这种情况持续到今年剩余时间，我们看到欧洲天然气价格相应上涨，这将使发达经济体的通胀率增加约2个百分点，欧洲的通胀率更高，美国的通胀率更低。所以这是对实际收入的额外挤压。\n\n他补充称，制裁引发的俄罗斯经济衰退可能还会产生其他溢出效应。但欧元区可能会摆脱衰退，欧洲央行在12月加息的可能性仍然存在。\n在美国，汽油价格上涨和适度的金融紧缩将拖累经济增长。美国可能会将更多的天然气运往欧洲，从而抬高国内价格。\n彭博分析指出，在石油和天然气继续流动的情况下，美国2月的整体CPI通胀率可能超过8%，到年底接近5%，而此前市场普遍认为是3.3%。而一旦能源供应中断，可能会将美国3月份的通胀率推高至9%，并在年底前保持在接近6%的水平。\n也有一种观点认为，尽管油价的持续上涨将打击页岩油气生产商，也会伤害到美国能源消费者，但总体而言，美国将相对不受影响。\n金融市场是否能够承受地缘政治冲击？\n受到地缘政治风险冲击，全球主要金融市场大幅下跌。\nShearing还指出，尽管股市出现抛售，但债券收益率下降，信用利差也没有扩大多少，这表明市场反应是有序的，还不能说明市场预期欧洲将爆发一场更大规模的冲突。\n许多新兴经济体遭受了更剧烈的震荡。据英国金融时报报道，安本资产管理公司（Aberdeen Asset Management）的投资组合经理Kevin Daly指出，加纳、土耳其、埃及和巴基斯坦等国的股市出现大幅抛售，原因是投资者纷纷从金融脆弱的国家逃往安全地带。\n芝加哥大学布斯商学院副院长、前美联储理事Randy Kroszner表示，经济衰退风险将体现在投资级债券收益率与非投资级债券收益率的差异上，后者在周四并没有大范围扩大。\n他补充称，地理位置上接近危机的国家的主权债务收益率，是一个很好的指标，来判断市场是否开始担心将爆发更大范围的冲突。\n与此同时，对全球经济至关重要的是，面对俄罗斯的行动，家庭和企业是否会明显变得更加谨慎——减少支出、增加储蓄。\nPantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Ian Shepherdson表示，增长放缓是不可避免的：\n\n各地的消费者信心将进一步减弱……这必然意味着，欧洲、美国和大多数新兴市场的经济增长将低于预期。\n\nHargreaves Lansdown高级投资和市场分析师Susannah Streeter表示：“根据这场危机持续的时间，企业和消费者可能会严重丧失信心。”\n还有一些难以量化的风险，比如俄罗斯的网络攻击。纽约联储估计，美国最活跃的五家银行支付系统受到的攻击，可能会波及到银行总资产的38%，在最坏的情况下会导致流动性囤积和破产。\n宏观经济风险——央行是否还会按部就班加息？\n目前经济学家认为，如果这场危机对全球市场造成重大打击，可能会增加各国央行提高利率的压力。\n最坏的结果是欧洲的天然气供应中断，引发经济衰退，而美国的金融状况将明显收紧，经济增长将受到更大打击，美联储将明显更加鸽派，收紧政策的步伐也将放缓。\n据英国金融时报报道，Evercore ISI副主席Krishna Guha表示，这次军事行动“使大西洋两岸的央行在大范围通胀飙升的情况下实现经济软着陆的能力变得复杂”，他预计金融市场将降低对央行加息的预期。\n尽管如此，美联储很可能会把目光放在暂时的价格冲击之外，继续执行其在3月份开始加息的计划，尽管可能不会提高50个基点之多。\n克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周四表示：\n\n除非经济出现意外的转机，我认为在3月上调联邦基金利率并在未来几个月内进一步加息是合适的。\n\n面对来自美国和欧洲的制裁，俄罗斯可能会通过切断对欧洲的天然气供应来进行报复。\n欧洲央行估计，10%的天然气供给冲击就可能会使欧元区GDP下降0.7%。如果将这一比例扩大到40%，意味着欧洲经济将萎缩3%。这可能会使欧洲央行今年取消加息。\n另一些国家，如沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾石油出口国，可能会从中受益。但对于大多数已经在经历缓慢复苏的新兴市场来说，价格上涨和资本外流可能会带来重大打击，并加剧疫情后债务危机的风险。土耳其就是一个极端个例：作为能源进口大国，在乌克兰危机之前，土耳其的货币已经大幅贬值，通胀率也在飙升。\n行业是否有能力抵御这种“史无前例的混乱”？\n从半导体行业来看，俄罗斯和乌克兰是半导体生产中至关重要的化学气体C4F6和氖气的主要来源。\n如果乌克兰的供应在很长一段时间内受到严重阻碍，芯片制造商可能是受影响最严重的行业之一。乌克兰是大量用于芯片制造的稀有气体的最大供应国之一，尤其是用于芯片的氖气。\n据英国金融时报报道，专门研究稀有气体的独立顾问Richard Betzendahl表示，乌克兰生产的氖气占全球总量的四分之一。他补充称，氙气和氪气的供应不足也将加剧，而这两种气体对半导体制造业至关重要。\n在欧盟和美国实施制裁后，危机无疑也会使俄罗斯银行业遭受重创。\n周四，奥地利银行Raiffeisen股价下跌20%，该银行超过三分之一的利润来自俄罗斯。意大利联合信贷银行和法国兴业银行的股价均下跌超过11%。\n法国兴业银行位于莫斯科的子公司罗斯银行（Rosbank）拥有550家分行和310万名客户，而意大利联合信贷银行在俄罗斯拥有103家分行和200万名客户。\n根据摩根大通的数据，俄罗斯去年占意大利联合信贷银行利润的6%，占法国兴业银行利润的4%。以资产总额计，Raiffeisen、法国兴业银行和意大利联合信贷银行分别是俄罗斯第9、第10和第11大银行。\n这三家银行均表示，它们正在密切关注事态发展，但坚称它们在俄罗斯的业务资本充足，足以应对客户的大规模提款，并表示它们将继续以“完全合规的方式”运营。\n另外，服务行业也正面临史无前例的混乱。\n在俄罗斯设有办事处的律师事务所和咨询公司正在制定应急计划，以应对莫斯科对西方制裁可能进行的“报复”。\n麦肯锡咨询公司和波士顿咨询集团在莫斯科各有400多名员工，而英国的五家商业律师事务所“魔术圈”（magic circle）在俄罗斯共有150多名律师。\n在乌克兰的大型国际律师事务所，包括CMS、Dentons和Baker McKenzie，周四上午暂时关闭了他们在乌克兰的办公室，并一直在帮助将员工转移到欧盟基地。\nDentons公司表示，如果有要求，它将把乌克兰的律师调往其他办事处。\n会计和咨询公司普华永道在乌克兰有三个办事处，该公司表示，正努力“尽可能正常”地保持业务运营，但周四建议其在乌克兰的750名员工留在家中。会计师事务所毕马威表示，该公司“仍致力于维持在当地的业务”。毕马威在俄罗斯有4000名员工，在乌克兰有600名员工。\n一家咨询公司人士表示：“让人们离开，绝对是史无前例的混乱。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"TNmain":0.68,"ZTmain":0.68,"DGAZ":0.6,"NGmain":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QGmain":0.6,"USO":0.68,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"ZNmain":0.68,"SSO":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ZFmain":0.68,"PAmain":0.63,"SH":0.6,"ZBmain":0.68,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"PLmain":0.63,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.68,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1450,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}