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TSwin2022
2022-01-06

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Nvidia VS Micron! The battle between market position and high-quality cheap stocks

作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股

Nvidia VS Micron! The battle between market position and high-quality cheap stocks

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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JoelSeah
·2022-01-07
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9008804632,"tweetId":"9008804632","gmtCreate":1641399723334,"gmtModify":1676533610823,"author":{"id":4101713019432660,"idStr":"4101713019432660","authorId":4101713019432660,"authorIdStr":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008804632","repostId":1141749236,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141749236","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1641384778,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141749236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-05 20:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia VS Micron! The battle between market position and high-quality cheap stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141749236","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股","content":"<html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business perspective, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership position make it more popular with investors. Micron's stock price, on the other hand, is relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.The bull market of the past few years has pushed Nvidia to become the most valuable semiconductor company to date. It is the eighth largest company by market capitalization in the world today, while among other semiconductor companies, only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) entered the top 25 of the market capitalization list.In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of \"Picks and Shovels\" (in the past gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners ended in failure, while those who sold picks, shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood here as investing in companies outside the industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processor units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Companies such as (FB.US) are ramping up investment in these areas, so widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a P/E that is much higher than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron's market value is US $104 billion, which is 14 times that of P/E. In comparison, Micron's revenue actually exceeds Nvidia's. In the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, while Nvidia's revenue was $24.3 billion.If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.From a business point of view, the two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GPU market shareNvidia is focused on its GPU products, with 83% of the GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>NAND Device Market ShareMicron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron doesn't seem to have obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute direct competition with the GPU. Micron is partnering with Nvidia on a variety of products, which will benefit both companies. Additionally, both companies highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industrial, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.Nvidia's future growth expectationsAccording to current analysts' forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit in the next two years, its earnings will grow at a compound annual rate of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its compound annual growth rate will reach 14%. Therefore, relative to historical levels, it is reasonable to expect the company's revenue growth rate to continue to increase in the context of the forecast that the economic growth rate will increase slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.It is understanded that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a compound annual revenue growth rate of more than 15%, is the first company to break through this threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a well-known investor, was once skeptical of any company growing more than 20% because it was difficult to maintain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 is close to 100 times, and the company's revenue base is also the largest in history, so it is difficult for it to maintain the trend of high revenue growth.However, Nvidia would have to grow at a CAGR well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E relative earnings growth ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth rate reached 34%, but in the second year of these two years, its growth rate plummeted to-16% and 21% respectively.On the other hand, Nvidia will also benefit from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to dig Bitcoin.Although it has not yet been proven that Bitcoin will fall in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually stealing Bitcoin's share of the cryptocurrency market. Since other altcoins don't require too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron will not be affected by altcoins and may be able to get a piece of the pie, mainly because miners need a lot of power and a lot of memory.The market is currently more perceived that Nvidia is benefiting from the shortage of GPUs related to the mining business, and if there is a crash in Bitcoin price, this could negatively impact Nvidia's stock.Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrencies, because it will have an adverse impact on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Revenue growth rates in other areasAgain, these areas have huge growth potential, which may be a factor driving Nvidia's revenue to continue to grow rapidly in the next few years.Micron's Future Growth ExpectationsIn terms of growth, Micron is not inferior.From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 10% (compared to Nvidia's compound annual growth rate of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest growing sub-field in the semiconductor field over the past 20 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Micron's revenue growth rate across segmentsMicron's segmentation of market segments is slightly different from Nvidia's, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. In addition, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate in the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its auto-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 40-50% in the next three years.The premise of Micron's projected EPS growth is based on its forecast of 16% revenue growth, which appears to be an achievable goal because the growth rate is only slightly higher than its historical growth rate of revenue. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation doesn't exceed expectations by a large margin and has a better chance of generating strong returns.Another reason why there is a view that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply-demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although peer Nvidia's revenue is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. And this is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also peaked in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the industry and the various developments since 2018, investors have reason to imagine the memory industry's revenue hitting another record high.In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements to work closely with customers, which is a big increase compared to 10% five years ago. In addition, as the memory industry has started an era of enterprise consolidation, it will bring companies more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply, and as part of the CHIPS Act (the Act to Create Beneficial Incentives for Chip Production), Micron can get federal support, which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (and therefore is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, which shows management's confidence in their continued cash flow.RiskWhat Tebi needs to explain is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.First of all, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.On the other hand, Nvidia has a large number of intellectual property rights, is the world's largest GPU manufacturer, and the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies may be affected by changes in the market environment in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from P/E's adjustment as Nvidia.sum upMicron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E falls back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.At the same time, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is more reasonable.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia VS Micron! The battle between market position and high-quality cheap stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia VS Micron! The battle between market position and high-quality cheap stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n智通财经APP \n2022-01-05 20:12\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business perspective, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership position make it more popular with investors. Micron's stock price, on the other hand, is relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.The bull market of the past few years has pushed Nvidia to become the most valuable semiconductor company to date. It is the eighth largest company by market capitalization in the world today, while among other semiconductor companies, only<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) entered the top 25 of the market capitalization list.In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of \"Picks and Shovels\" (in the past gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners ended in failure, while those who sold picks, shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood here as investing in companies outside the industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processor units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Companies such as (FB.US) are ramping up investment in these areas, so widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a P/E that is much higher than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron's market value is US $104 billion, which is 14 times that of P/E. In comparison, Micron's revenue actually exceeds Nvidia's. In the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, while Nvidia's revenue was $24.3 billion.If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.From a business point of view, the two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GPU market shareNvidia is focused on its GPU products, with 83% of the GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>NAND Device Market ShareMicron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron doesn't seem to have obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute direct competition with the GPU. Micron is partnering with Nvidia on a variety of products, which will benefit both companies. Additionally, both companies highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industrial, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.Nvidia's future growth expectationsAccording to current analysts' forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit in the next two years, its earnings will grow at a compound annual rate of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its compound annual growth rate will reach 14%. Therefore, relative to historical levels, it is reasonable to expect the company's revenue growth rate to continue to increase in the context of the forecast that the economic growth rate will increase slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.It is understanded that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a compound annual revenue growth rate of more than 15%, is the first company to break through this threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a well-known investor, was once skeptical of any company growing more than 20% because it was difficult to maintain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 is close to 100 times, and the company's revenue base is also the largest in history, so it is difficult for it to maintain the trend of high revenue growth.However, Nvidia would have to grow at a CAGR well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E relative earnings growth ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth rate reached 34%, but in the second year of these two years, its growth rate plummeted to-16% and 21% respectively.On the other hand, Nvidia will also benefit from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to dig Bitcoin.Although it has not yet been proven that Bitcoin will fall in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually stealing Bitcoin's share of the cryptocurrency market. Since other altcoins don't require too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron will not be affected by altcoins and may be able to get a piece of the pie, mainly because miners need a lot of power and a lot of memory.The market is currently more perceived that Nvidia is benefiting from the shortage of GPUs related to the mining business, and if there is a crash in Bitcoin price, this could negatively impact Nvidia's stock.Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrencies, because it will have an adverse impact on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Revenue growth rates in other areasAgain, these areas have huge growth potential, which may be a factor driving Nvidia's revenue to continue to grow rapidly in the next few years.Micron's Future Growth ExpectationsIn terms of growth, Micron is not inferior.From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 10% (compared to Nvidia's compound annual growth rate of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest growing sub-field in the semiconductor field over the past 20 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Micron's revenue growth rate across segmentsMicron's segmentation of market segments is slightly different from Nvidia's, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. In addition, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate in the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its auto-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 40-50% in the next three years.The premise of Micron's projected EPS growth is based on its forecast of 16% revenue growth, which appears to be an achievable goal because the growth rate is only slightly higher than its historical growth rate of revenue. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation doesn't exceed expectations by a large margin and has a better chance of generating strong returns.Another reason why there is a view that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply-demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although peer Nvidia's revenue is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. And this is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also peaked in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the industry and the various developments since 2018, investors have reason to imagine the memory industry's revenue hitting another record high.In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements to work closely with customers, which is a big increase compared to 10% five years ago. In addition, as the memory industry has started an era of enterprise consolidation, it will bring companies more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply, and as part of the CHIPS Act (the Act to Create Beneficial Incentives for Chip Production), Micron can get federal support, which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (and therefore is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, which shows management's confidence in their continued cash flow.RiskWhat Tebi needs to explain is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.First of all, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.On the other hand, Nvidia has a large number of intellectual property rights, is the world's largest GPU manufacturer, and the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies may be affected by changes in the market environment in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from P/E's adjustment as Nvidia.sum upMicron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E falls back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.At the same time, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is more reasonable.</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","MU":"美光科技","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4566":"资本集团","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141749236","content_text":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股价相对来说更便宜，因此或许是更好的投资选择。过去几年的牛市行情推动英伟达成为迄今为止市值最高的半导体公司。它是现今世界上第八大市值的公司，而在其他的半导体企业中，只有台积电(TSM.US)进入市值榜单的前25名。事实上，英伟达一直在玩一场“淘金先富卖铲人”（Picks and Shovels）的游戏(在过去在淘金热潮中，大多数想要成为矿主的淘金者都以失败告终，而那些向淘金者出售铁镐，铁铲，帐篷和牛仔裤的人却发了大财，这里可理解为投资于那些从高科技行业热潮中间接受益的非该行业的公司)。英伟达的GPU(图形处理器)在数据中心、加密货币挖矿和自动驾驶汽车等领域变得越来越重要，再加上Meta Platforms(FB.US)等公司都在加大在这些领域的投入，因此，广泛的需求导致英伟达的产品出现短缺，并推动了该公司股价走高。然而，英伟达的市盈率在2020年时曾跌至35倍，现在如今却接近100倍，这一市盈率远远高于其半导体同行。据了解，美光的市值为1040亿美元，市盈率为14倍，相比之下，美光的营收实际上超过了英伟达。在过去的12个月里，美光的营收达到277亿美元，而英伟达的营收为243亿美元。若美光拥有像英伟达那样的市盈率，其市值将达到7130亿美元，只比英伟达目前市值小5.6%。而从商业角度来看，这两家公司除了都设计半导体产品之外，并没有太多的相似业务。GPU市场份额英伟达专注于其GPU产品，截至2021年的第三季度，该公司拥有83%的GPU市场份额。NAND设备市场份额另一方面，美光的DRAM市场份额排在第三，而NAND市场份额上仅排在第五。而与英伟达不同的是，美光除了设计芯片外，在知识产权方面似乎并没有明显的优势。据了解，DRAM和NAND是两种存储芯片。而GPU则专注于快速执行大量操作，而内存芯片专注于存储大量信息。而内存芯片与GPU一起使用，因此并不构成与GPU的直接竞争。美光与英伟达在各种产品上进行合作，这将使两家公司受益。此外，两家公司都强调了在人工智能、5G、物联网、游戏、工业、区块链、元宇宙和汽车等领域开展研究，以推动公司未来的增长。英伟达未来的增长预期根据目前分析师对英伟达未来两年营收和利润的预测，其盈利复合年均增长率将达到16-18%。而从2005年到2020年，英伟达的营收以12%的复合年均增长率增长。若将2021年的历史业绩考虑进去，其复合年均增长率将达到14%。因此，相对于历史水平，在经济增速将略有提高的预测背景下，预计该公司的营收增长率将继续提高，是合理的。这种增长水平远高于行业的平均水平。据了解，自2008年以来，博通(AVGO.US)作为唯一一家营收复合年均增长率超过15%的大型半导体公司，是首个通过收购突破这一门槛的公司。著名投资者彼得•林奇(Peter Lynch)曾对任何增长速度超过20%的公司都持怀疑态度，因为维持这种增长是很困难的。半导体行业也没有例外，这也侧面证明该理论的正确性。英伟达在2021年的市盈率接近100倍，而且该公司的营收基数也是有史以来最大的，因此它很难维持住高营收增长的趋势。然而，英伟达的复合年增长率必须远远高于18%，才能证明其估值的合理性，因为18%的增长率将使其PEG指标(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)高于5。而如果英伟达能实现其预期的增长，其预期市盈率将为49倍。同样值得注意的是，半导体业务的营收是颇具周期性，所以这并不是英伟达第一次经历强劲增长。在2008年和2018年，英伟达的营收增长率都达到了34%，但这两年份的后一年，其增长率分别骤降至-16%和21%。而另一方面，英伟达在2021年还受益于加密货币热潮。但该公司曾表示，加密货币的需求对营收的影响究竟有多大，目前还不得而知。据了解，其产品一直被用于挖掘比特币。虽然目前尚未能证明在2022年里，比特币将走低。但其他包括以太坊在内的替代币正逐渐抢夺比特币在加密货币市场的份额。而由于其他替代币并不需要太多的算力，因此他们并不需要过多的用到英伟达的GPU产品。但美光并不会受到替代币的影响，并有可能能从中分一杯羹，这主要由于矿工需要大量电力和大量内存。市场目前更多的看法是，英伟达受益于与挖矿业务相关的GPU短缺，而如果比特币价格出现崩盘，这可能会对英伟达的股票造成负面影响。英伟达当然不会只专注于加密货币的业务，因为这对公司来说会产生不利的影响。而事实上，该公司在其他领域的业务营收也在快速增长:其他领域的营收增长率同样，这些领域都有着巨大的增长潜力，这可能会成为推动英伟达在未来几年营收继续快速增长的因素。美光未来的增长预期在成长性方面，美光也毫不逊色。从2005年到2020年，该公司的营收年均复合增长率为10%(相比之下，英伟达的年均复合增长率为12%)。据美光称，在过去20年里，存储器一直是半导体领域里增长最快的子领域。美光在各领域的营收增长率美光对细分市场的划分与英伟达稍有不同，但它的很多细分业务也都在快速增长。另外，该公司也在强调许多可以推动公司营收增长的业务。特别是，今年该公司预计其在物联网业务上的营收增长率将达到80%，公司还预计在未来三年，其与汽车相关的业务营收的复合年增长率为40-50%。美光预计的每股盈利增长的前提是基于其预测的16%的营收增长，而这似乎是一个可以实现的目标，因为该增长率仅略高于其营收的历史增长率。理想情况下，一项投资应该基于合理的盈利预期来进行公平估值，这样一来，一家公司的估值就不会大幅超出预期，也就更有机会获得强劲的回报。有观点认为美光的增长预期是可以实现的另一个原因是，它们所处的供需周期有利于该公司。我们可以了解到，尽管同行--英伟达的营收每个季度都在打破纪录，但美光目前的年度营收仍低于2018年。而这是一个全行业的问题，作为竞争对手SK海力士的营收也在2018年达到顶峰。但考虑到支撑该行业的强劲增长趋势，以及自2018年以来各种事态的发展，投资者有理由想象内存行业的营收将再创历史新高。此外，美光有75%的营收来自与客户密切合作的长期协议，这与五年前的10%相比，有了大大的提升。另外，在内存行业已开启企业整合的时代，会给各公司带来更多的议价能力以及更少的供应过剩风险，而且作为CHIPS法案（为芯片生产创造有益的激励措施法案）的一部分，美光可以获得联邦政府的支持，该法案也似乎更关注于芯片的制造而不是设计(因此不太可能惠及英伟达)。最近，美光开始派发股息，这表明管理层对他们的持续现金流的有信心。风险需要特比说明的是虽然美光未来几年的表现很可能会超过英伟达，但这并不意味英伟达的股价将会下跌。像英伟达这样的大公司可以在很长一段时间内保持较高的市盈率，因此做空英伟达并不是明智的选择。同样，美光最终的表现也可能会逊于英伟达，其原因有几个。首先，美光在市场的地位并不如英伟达强大。虽然美光的市场地位会有所改善，但即便如此，与三星相比，尽管它在低功耗DRAM产品方面处于市场领先地位，但其市场份额仍相对较小。这可能会对美光通过研发或行使定价权来推动创新构成一定的压力。而另一方面，英伟达拥有大量的知识产权，是全球最大的GPU厂商，也是研发预算最多的厂商。两家公司都曾从多次的扩张中获益。而不同之处在于，美光目前的市盈率为14倍，对于一家营收增速达10%以上的周期性公司来说，这是一个合理的倍数。而英伟达目前93倍的市盈率，对于一家未来几年有望实现30%以上的营收增长的高质量公司来说，也是一个合理的倍数。但这两家公司未来都可能受到市场坏境变动的影响，但美光在市盈率的调整中获得的好处可能并不如英伟达多。总结美光和英伟达都是不错的半导体公司，但就市场地位和利润率而言，英伟达可能是一家更好的公司。如果英伟达的市盈率回落至40-50倍之间，那么该股会更具投资吸引力。与此同时，美光是一家有着增长潜力的公司，其目前的股价也更为合理。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":100137803,"commentId":"100137803","gmtCreate":1641517260726,"gmtModify":1663242050226,"authorId":3585452666972742,"author":{"id":3585452666972742,"idStr":"3585452666972742","authorId":3585452666972742,"name":"JoelSeah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7209ed7c109a0f0d11e650747fe83336","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" 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