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金金在线
2021-08-22

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Even the analysts are confused! How will the US stock market go next? Wall Street divides widely

随着美股持续上涨，企业收益甚至超过最高预期的情况下，华尔街分析师对美股乐观程度达20年最高。但由于新冠变异病毒减缓经济复苏的进展，衡量通货膨胀的消费价格指数继续高于预期水平，美银美林全球投资策略师M

Even the analysts are confused! How will the US stock market go next? Wall Street divides widely

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How will the US stock market go next? Wall Street divides widely","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161774462","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着美股持续上涨，企业收益甚至超过最高预期的情况下，华尔街分析师对美股乐观程度达20年最高。\n但由于新冠变异病毒减缓经济复苏的进展，衡量通货膨胀的消费价格指数继续高于预期水平，美银美林全球投资策略师M","content":"<p>As U.S. stocks continue to rise and corporate earnings even exceed highest expectations, Wall Street analysts are optimistic about U.S. stocks at their highest level in 20 years.</p><p>However, as the new coronavirus slows down the progress of economic recovery, the consumer price index, which measures inflation, continues to be higher than expected. Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said:<b>Stocks will see negative returns in the second half of this year.</b>He expressed concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that,<b>U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction.</b>He predicted that the S&P 500 index would fear a 10% pullback/retracement by the end of the year.</p><p>Pessimistic analysts said that the recent decline in the U.S. bond yield curve, commodity prices have fluctuated and fallen, and small-cap stocks are being hit. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index has fallen nearly 8% from its all-time high in mid-March. In addition, The reduction of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve may also be the trigger for the decline in U.S. stocks.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, investors have been much more afraid of a sharp pullback/retracement recently than in the past few months, and the demand for hedging against the market crash has risen sharply in recent weeks. 84% of investors predict that the Federal Reserve will reduce QE before the end of the year, which makes most investors turn cautious.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Some Wall Street bulls also said that there are still good reasons to remain optimistic about U.S. stocks for the time being, believing that U.S. stocks will rise slightly.</b></p><p>They said it was too early to worry about the impact of the Delta variant on consumer spending and slowing economic growth. In addition, the market will be able to calmly deal with the Fed's tapering of bond purchases. At present, the Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining a weekly asset purchase program of $120 billion to maintain market liquidity and investor confidence.</p><p><b>Overall, Wall Street analysts have huge differences on the outlook for the U.S. stock market.</b>Of the 21 forecasting analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 12 analysts expect the S&P 500 to decline. Among them, the gap between the highest and lowest targets predicted is 24%.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Some analysts expressed uncertainty about the future trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Adam Phillips, general manager of portfolio strategy at Wealth Advisors, said:</p><p>We can point to some positives in the economy to support risky assets. But at the same time, there are still many problems that are difficult to judge. Just like flipping a coin, you don't know which side will land, and the prospects are hugely different. Due to the unpredictable trend of the U.S. stock market outlook and the fear that economic growth will suddenly slow down, investors have reinvested in U.S. bonds.</p><p>In early August, as U.S. bond prices rose sharply, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once fell to 1.13%, and the spread between it and the 2-year U.S. bond yield tended to flatten. In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Both lowered their year-end targets for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to 1.8% from 2% in May.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even the analysts are confused! 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How will the US stock market go next? Wall Street divides widely\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 13:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As U.S. stocks continue to rise and corporate earnings even exceed highest expectations, Wall Street analysts are optimistic about U.S. stocks at their highest level in 20 years.</p><p>However, as the new coronavirus slows down the progress of economic recovery, the consumer price index, which measures inflation, continues to be higher than expected. Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said:<b>Stocks will see negative returns in the second half of this year.</b>He expressed concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that,<b>U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction.</b>He predicted that the S&P 500 index would fear a 10% pullback/retracement by the end of the year.</p><p>Pessimistic analysts said that the recent decline in the U.S. bond yield curve, commodity prices have fluctuated and fallen, and small-cap stocks are being hit. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index has fallen nearly 8% from its all-time high in mid-March. In addition, The reduction of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve may also be the trigger for the decline in U.S. stocks.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, investors have been much more afraid of a sharp pullback/retracement recently than in the past few months, and the demand for hedging against the market crash has risen sharply in recent weeks. 84% of investors predict that the Federal Reserve will reduce QE before the end of the year, which makes most investors turn cautious.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Some Wall Street bulls also said that there are still good reasons to remain optimistic about U.S. stocks for the time being, believing that U.S. stocks will rise slightly.</b></p><p>They said it was too early to worry about the impact of the Delta variant on consumer spending and slowing economic growth. In addition, the market will be able to calmly deal with the Fed's tapering of bond purchases. At present, the Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining a weekly asset purchase program of $120 billion to maintain market liquidity and investor confidence.</p><p><b>Overall, Wall Street analysts have huge differences on the outlook for the U.S. stock market.</b>Of the 21 forecasting analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 12 analysts expect the S&P 500 to decline. Among them, the gap between the highest and lowest targets predicted is 24%.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Some analysts expressed uncertainty about the future trend of U.S. stocks.</b>Adam Phillips, general manager of portfolio strategy at Wealth Advisors, said:</p><p>We can point to some positives in the economy to support risky assets. But at the same time, there are still many problems that are difficult to judge. Just like flipping a coin, you don't know which side will land, and the prospects are hugely different. Due to the unpredictable trend of the U.S. stock market outlook and the fear that economic growth will suddenly slow down, investors have reinvested in U.S. bonds.</p><p>In early August, as U.S. bond prices rose sharply, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once fell to 1.13%, and the spread between it and the 2-year U.S. bond yield tended to flatten. In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Both lowered their year-end targets for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to 1.8% from 2% in May.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638533\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e574706ced777ba0af741c0072c424","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638533","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161774462","content_text":"随着美股持续上涨，企业收益甚至超过最高预期的情况下，华尔街分析师对美股乐观程度达20年最高。\n但由于新冠变异病毒减缓经济复苏的进展，衡量通货膨胀的消费价格指数继续高于预期水平，美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett的观点是：今年下半年股市将出现负回报。他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克•威尔逊也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他预测，年底标普500指数恐回撤10%。\n悲观的分析师表示，近期美债收益率曲线下降，大宗商品价格震荡下跌，以及小盘股正受到冲击，罗素2000小盘股指数较3月中旬的历史高点已跌去近8%，此外，美联储缩减购债规模也可能成为美股下行的导火索。\n彭博社称，投资者最近对大幅回撤的恐惧比过去几个月要大得多，针对市场大跌的对冲需求在最近几周急剧上升。有84%的投资者预测，美联储将在年底前缩减QE，这使得大部分投资者的操作转向谨慎。\n与此同时，也有华尔街多头表示，依旧有充分的理由暂时对美股保持乐观，认为美股将小幅走高。\n他们表示，现在担心Delta变种对消费者支出和经济增长放缓的影响还为时过早。此外，市场将能够从容应对美联储的缩减购债计划。目前，美联储承诺保持每周1200亿美元的资产购买计划以保持市场流动性和投资者信心。\n总的来看，华尔街分析师对美股后市的展望分歧巨大。在彭博追踪的21位预测分析师中，有12位分析师预计，标准普尔500指数将会下降。其中，预测的最高和最低目标之间的差距为24%。\n此外，还有一些分析师对美股后市走势表示不确定。Wealth Advisors投资组合策略总经理亚当•菲利普斯表示：\n\n 我们可以指出经济中的一些积极因素来支持风险资产。但与此同时，还有许多问题难以判断，就像抛硬币，你不知道哪一面落地，而前景则差异巨大。\n\n由于美股后市的走势变幻莫测，加之担心经济增速会突然放缓，投资者纷纷重新投资美债。\n8月初，随着美债价格大幅上涨，10年期美债收益率一度跌至1.13%，其与2年期美债收益率之间的利差趋于平缓。对此，摩根大通和高盛均下调了10年期美债收益率的年终目标，从5月的2%调降至1.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}