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2021-08-16

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Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole

美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。

Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches, investors wait for the signal that the Federal Reserve may give about Taper at that time, and the market falls into a kind of quiet before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th, local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BAC":"美国银行","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2424,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}