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李欧8886
2021-08-28

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Looking through the situation of the Fed in one article, why is it inevitable for Powell to choose "dove voice"?

对于美联储来说，实施该机构历史上最宽松的货币政策已经很艰难，同样对于退出来说可能是更艰难的任务。美联储当下首要任务是缩减QE，这个是共识，其目前每月购买1200亿美元左右的债券，以刺激需求并压低长期

Looking through the situation of the Fed in one article, why is it inevitable for Powell to choose "dove voice"?

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cy8
·2021-08-28
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This is the consensus. It currently buys about $120 billion in bonds every month to stimulate demand and lower long-term interest rates. After that, the monetary policy path became more rocky. To some extent, the Fed will seek to raise short-term interest rates higher from the near-zero anchor, where they have been since March 2020. The Federal Reserve's last attempt to return to normal interest rates in 2015-18 didn't turn out well as it had to halt the rate hike in the middle of the economic downturn.</p><p>So markets can be forgiven for being at least a little nervous this time around, and the Fed understands it all too well. Not only must the Fed reverse its most aggressive easing policy ever, but it must do so with precision, and hopefully not destabilize any financial and economic stability in the process.</p><p>In fact, the U.S. economy is still in the process of a strong recovery from the worst of the pandemic. The pandemic caused the worst but shortest-lasting economic recession in U.S. history. But the rally appears to be stalling at the moment.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Citi Economic Surprise Index reached a record high in mid-July. But the index has now fallen to its June 2020 level. The Federal Reserve can see this.</p><p>Fed officials themselves expect growth to slow significantly over the next few years amid tightening of both monetary and fiscal policies. This raises more questions about whether Powell and his colleagues can quit correctly.</p><p>Such low interest rates have alarmed Fed officials, who have little leeway to ease policy in times of crisis. This is about where the funds rate was at the beginning of the pandemic crisis, a sharp drop from the 2.25%-2.5% target range of the Fed when it ended its last rate hike cycle in December 2018.</p><p>How to handle it all will fall on Powell's shoulders from a communication standpoint, and on the shoulders of other FOMC members from a practical mechanics standpoint.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Deepak Puri, Americas investment director at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, said, \"Tapering is important because it is not only a good measure of the Fed's credibility, but also its communication ability, its strategy is good and transparent.\" \"In 2013, the Fed made mistakes in how it communicated about tapering its quantitative easing.\"</p><p>Misra of TD Securities pointed out that the Fed has learned from earlier events and will therefore choose to gradually reduce its bond purchases. A 2013 statement by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was seen as a sudden, sending interest rates soaring and stocks trading lower for months.</p><p>\"In a sense, they're doing a good job, they're really trying not to surprise the market. This avoids the mistakes they made in 2013.\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi U.S. Consumer Wealth Management. \"But they're in a bit of a tough position right now because of the high delta variant uncertainty.\"</p><p>Rising hawkish tendencies among regional presidents such as Kaplan and James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, have clashed with more dovish members such as Lael Brainard and Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed. At this point, Powell needs a more \"dovish\" voice to \"fix the fragmented\" Fed.</p><p>On top of that, Powell and several other Fed officials will re-nominate in February, and Biden has yet to release his preferences. Powell already knows what it's like to be forced to keep interest rates low after experiencing something in the previous years. But to some extent, as the economic and epidemic situation changes, he will still have to consider some other factors. Charles Plosser, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said that the market is worried about the independence position of the Federal Reserve, and Powell is in a delicate position.</p><p>In his 2020 Jackson Hole speech, Powell outlined the Fed's policy shift in how it looks at inflation. The new framework reflects the desire to achieve full and inclusive employment, even if it means rising inflation. Some blame the policy for this year's spike in prices.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking through the situation of the Fed in one article, why is it inevitable for Powell to choose \"dove voice\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking through the situation of the Fed in one article, why is it inevitable for Powell to choose \"dove voice\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-27 23:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is already tough for the Fed to implement the loosest monetary policy in the agency's history, and it may be a tougher task for the exit.</p><p>The Fed's top priority now is to reduce QE. This is the consensus. It currently buys about $120 billion in bonds every month to stimulate demand and lower long-term interest rates. After that, the monetary policy path became more rocky. To some extent, the Fed will seek to raise short-term interest rates higher from the near-zero anchor, where they have been since March 2020. The Federal Reserve's last attempt to return to normal interest rates in 2015-18 didn't turn out well as it had to halt the rate hike in the middle of the economic downturn.</p><p>So markets can be forgiven for being at least a little nervous this time around, and the Fed understands it all too well. Not only must the Fed reverse its most aggressive easing policy ever, but it must do so with precision, and hopefully not destabilize any financial and economic stability in the process.</p><p>In fact, the U.S. economy is still in the process of a strong recovery from the worst of the pandemic. The pandemic caused the worst but shortest-lasting economic recession in U.S. history. But the rally appears to be stalling at the moment.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Citi Economic Surprise Index reached a record high in mid-July. But the index has now fallen to its June 2020 level. The Federal Reserve can see this.</p><p>Fed officials themselves expect growth to slow significantly over the next few years amid tightening of both monetary and fiscal policies. This raises more questions about whether Powell and his colleagues can quit correctly.</p><p>Such low interest rates have alarmed Fed officials, who have little leeway to ease policy in times of crisis. This is about where the funds rate was at the beginning of the pandemic crisis, a sharp drop from the 2.25%-2.5% target range of the Fed when it ended its last rate hike cycle in December 2018.</p><p>How to handle it all will fall on Powell's shoulders from a communication standpoint, and on the shoulders of other FOMC members from a practical mechanics standpoint.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Deepak Puri, Americas investment director at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, said, \"Tapering is important because it is not only a good measure of the Fed's credibility, but also its communication ability, its strategy is good and transparent.\" \"In 2013, the Fed made mistakes in how it communicated about tapering its quantitative easing.\"</p><p>Misra of TD Securities pointed out that the Fed has learned from earlier events and will therefore choose to gradually reduce its bond purchases. A 2013 statement by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was seen as a sudden, sending interest rates soaring and stocks trading lower for months.</p><p>\"In a sense, they're doing a good job, they're really trying not to surprise the market. This avoids the mistakes they made in 2013.\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi U.S. Consumer Wealth Management. \"But they're in a bit of a tough position right now because of the high delta variant uncertainty.\"</p><p>Rising hawkish tendencies among regional presidents such as Kaplan and James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, have clashed with more dovish members such as Lael Brainard and Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed. At this point, Powell needs a more \"dovish\" voice to \"fix the fragmented\" Fed.</p><p>On top of that, Powell and several other Fed officials will re-nominate in February, and Biden has yet to release his preferences. Powell already knows what it's like to be forced to keep interest rates low after experiencing something in the previous years. But to some extent, as the economic and epidemic situation changes, he will still have to consider some other factors. Charles Plosser, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said that the market is worried about the independence position of the Federal Reserve, and Powell is in a delicate position.</p><p>In his 2020 Jackson Hole speech, Powell outlined the Fed's policy shift in how it looks at inflation. The new framework reflects the desire to achieve full and inclusive employment, even if it means rising inflation. Some blame the policy for this year's spike in prices.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f96d5449880181797d6f852693cd97","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178241811","content_text":"对于美联储来说，实施该机构历史上最宽松的货币政策已经很艰难，同样对于退出来说可能是更艰难的任务。\n美联储当下首要任务是缩减QE，这个是共识，其目前每月购买1200亿美元左右的债券，以刺激需求并压低长期利率。在那之后，货币政策道路变得更加崎岖。在某种程度上，美联储将寻求将短期利率从近零的锚点上调高，自2020年3月以来一直处于这一水平。美联储在2015-18年试图恢复正常利率的最后一次尝试并没有取得好结果，因为它不得不在经济下滑的中期停止加息。\n因此，市场这次至少有一点紧张是可以原谅的，美联储也非常理解。美联储不仅必须扭转其有史以来最激进的宽松政策，而且必须精准地扭转，并希望在这一过程中不会破坏任何金融和经济的稳定性。\n事实上，美国经济仍处于从疫情最严重时期强劲复苏的过程中。疫情造成了美国历史上最严重但持续时间最短的经济衰退。但反弹似乎目前正在停滞。花旗经济意外指数(Citi Economic Surprise Index)在7月中旬创下历史新高。但该指数现在已跌至2020年6月的水平。这一点美联储是看得到的。\n美联储官员自己也预计，在货币和财政政策都将收紧的情况下，未来几年的经济增长将明显放缓。这引发了更多关于鲍威尔和他的同僚能否正确退出的问题。\n如此低的利率令美联储官员感到恐慌，因为在危机时期，他们几乎没有放松政策的回旋余地。这大约是在疫情危机开始时的基金利率水平，从美联储在2018年12月结束上次加息周期时的2.25%-2.5%目标区间大幅下降。\n从沟通的角度来看，如何处理这一切将落在鲍威尔的肩上，从实际机制的角度来看，则落在其他联邦公开市场委员会成员的肩上。\n德意志银行财富管理(Deutsche Bank Wealth Management)美洲投资总监Deepak Puri表示，\"缩减购债规模很重要，因为这不仅是衡量美联储可信度的一个很好的指标，也是衡量其沟通能力、策略的好坏和透明度的一个很好的指标。\"“2013年，美联储在如何就缩减量化宽松进行沟通方面就犯了错误。”\n道明证券(TD Securities)的Misra指出，美联储已经从早些时候的事件中吸取了教训，因此会选择逐步缩减购债规模。2013年时任美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的声明被视为突然，导致利率飙升，股市连续数月走低。\n“从某种意义上说，他们做得很好，他们真的在努力不让市场感到意外。这避免了他们在2013年犯的错误。花旗美国消费者财富管理投资策略主管Shawn Snyder表示。“但他们目前的处境有点艰难，因为delta变种不确定性很高。”\n卡普兰和圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德(James Bullard)等地区总裁的鹰派倾向不断上升，与莱尔•布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)和旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽•戴利(Mary Daly)等更为鸽派的成员产生了冲突。在这一点上，鲍威尔需要一个较“鸽派”声音来“修复四分五裂”的美联储。\n最重要的是，鲍威尔和其他几位美联储官员将在2月份重新提名，而拜登还没有公布他的偏好。鲍威尔在经历了之前几年一些事情后，已经知道了被逼着保持低利率是什么感觉。但在某种程度上，随着经济和疫情形势的变化，他仍将不得不考虑一些其它因素。费城联邦储备银行前总裁普洛瑟(Charles Plosser)表示市场都担心美联储的独立性位置，鲍威尔处在一个微妙的位置。\n鲍威尔在2020年的杰克逊霍尔演讲中概述了美联储在看待通胀方面的政策转变。新框架反映了实现全面和包容性就业的愿望，即使这意味着通胀加剧。一些人指责这项政策导致了今年价格的飙升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5671337,"commentId":"5671337","gmtCreate":1630109171025,"gmtModify":1663233009852,"authorId":3581664796192339,"author":{"id":3581664796192339,"idStr":"3581664796192339","authorId":3581664796192339,"name":"cy8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e0b4689f72344b9882519e0991e43e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":819796687,"objectIdStr":"819796687","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}