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中丐股代盐人
2021-07-29

Value stocks are making a comeback! These 10 Stocks Can Beat the Market

就算成长股的每股收益增长了，但如果增幅低于市场目前的预期，其股价仍然会下跌。多年来，成长股持续跑赢价值股。2020年底价值股一度反超，但之后再次跑输成长股。不过价值投资者不必灰心，一项新研究显示

Value stocks are making a comeback! These 10 Stocks Can Beat the Market

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":808366263,"tweetId":"808366263","gmtCreate":1627558351052,"gmtModify":1703492334755,"author":{"id":4087812927016950,"idStr":"4087812927016950","authorId":4087812927016950,"authorIdStr":"4087812927016950","name":"中丐股代盐人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0593f3d09438ee24faf75aad976d22","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808366263","repostId":1135894112,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135894112","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1627557081,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135894112?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value stocks are making a comeback! These 10 Stocks Can Beat the Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135894112","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"就算成长股的每股收益增长了，但如果增幅低于市场目前的预期，其股价仍然会下跌。\n\n多年来，成长股持续跑赢价值股。2020年底价值股一度反超，但之后再次跑输成长股。\n不过价值投资者不必灰心，一项新研究显示","content":"Even if growth stocks grow their earnings per share, if the increase is lower than the market currently expects, their stock prices will still fall. Growth stocks have consistently outperformed value stocks over the years. Value stocks once overtook at the end of 2020, but then underperformed growth stocks again.But value investors need not be discouraged. A new study shows that there is increasing evidence that value stocks will outperform growth stocks in the next few years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c40db6879c789bc53508092b1e228bb\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Value stocks are those stocks that have fallen out of favor, and their share prices have relatively low ratios to indicators such as profits, sales and book value, while growth stocks have relatively high ratios to these indicators.While on average value stocks have outperformed growth stocks over the past century, they have uncharacteristically underperformed over the past 15 years. Value stocks began to make a comeback starting in the fall of 2020, but have begun to underperform in recent weeks after months of strong gains. Whether the value stock rally has ended, or whether there will be a period of continuous outperformance of growth stocks after the rally is paused is a question many people are thinking about.A new study from AQR Capital Management thinks the answer is the latter. Cliff Asness, the founder of the company, recently focused on the question in a seminar: Can fundamental factors explain that investors are currently valuing growth stocks much higher than value stocks? His answer was: \"No.\"To understand the importance of AQR's findings, the first thing to point out is that investors almost always expect higher profits from growth stocks than value stocks, which is what makes such stocks growth stocks. The question is how much more can growth stocks grow than value stocks? How much higher should the valuation be?First, let's look at valuation. It is worth pointing out that the previous overtaking of value stocks over growth stocks did not affect investors' collective preference for growth stocks. According to data from Yardeni Research, the average P/E of growth stocks in the S&P 500 is 11.7 points higher than the average P/E of value stocks, almost three times the average gap over the past 10 years. \"AQR uses different research methodologies and definitions of value stocks, all of which come up with similar valuation gaps,\" Asnis said.Next, let's look at profits. AQR's research found that the gap between growth and value stocks is not as wide as the P/E gap, looking at analyst forecasts for profits. Analyst forecasts show that the contrast between five-year EPS growth and value stocks is now essentially the same as historical averages for typical growth stocks. Specifically, growth stocks averaged 4.2 percentage points higher than value stocks in their five-year EPS estimates from 1990 to 2017. As of June 30, 2021, the gap was 2.6 percentage points. (The average is a weighted average of 2,000 global stocks.)These studies show that profit expectations can't explain why the valuation of growth stocks is so high compared with value stocks.Of course, profit growth isn't the only metric that can be used to distinguish growth stocks from value stocks, but in general, Asnis found that when AQR only looks at analysts' profit growth expectations, the conclusions are similar.As the fundamental gap between growth stocks and value stocks is expected to continue to be consistent with historical levels, and the valuation gap between the two is much higher than historical levels, Asnis believes that value stocks are \"far more attractive than growth stocks.\"AQR's research found that over the next five years, growth stocks are expected to increase annualized EPS by an average of 2.6 percentage points higher than value stocks. But higher profit increases don't necessarily translate into better stock price performance, because a stock's return depends on how well it performs relative to expectations. Even if growth stocks grow their earnings per share, if the increase is lower than the market currently expects, their stock prices will still fall.We can make the assumption that you can bet on any of 10 horses in a horse racing race, and assuming that the favorite horse ends up third and the horse expected to finish tenth finishes seventh, then you can make more money if you place your bet on the latter rather than the former, even though the former still runs much faster than the latter.It must be emphasized that while Asnis believes value stocks will outperform growth stocks in the next few years, he recommends that investors diversify their stock portfolios and consider other factors besides value, including quality and kinetic energy.For investors looking to increase their holdings in value stocks, ETFs may be the most convenient and cheapest way. Investors looking to pick large-cap value stocks can consider the Vanguard S&P 500 (VOOV), an ETF that is one of the cheapest in its class with a 0.10% fee rate. Investors who want to choose small and mid-cap value stocks can consider Vanguard Russell 2000 Value (VTWV), which has a 0.15% fee rate.In terms of individual stocks, the author sorted out the stocks recommended by the best-performing investment briefs in Hulbert Financial Digest. First, he selected all the stocks recommended by at least three of the best-performing investment briefs, and then excluded P/E, price-to-book ratio and stocks with higher price-to-sales ratios than the S&P 500 index.The 10 screened stocks listed in the table are arranged by the number of times they have been recommended from top to bottom.Here are 10 stocks recommended by the best-performing investment briefs<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e938b32abd7985bef9ae82b151179b6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: Data as of July 20, 2021SOURCE OF DATA Hulbert Ratings; FactSet","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value stocks are making a comeback! 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These 10 Stocks Can Beat the Market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBarrons巴伦 \n2021-07-29 19:11\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEven if growth stocks grow their earnings per share, if the increase is lower than the market currently expects, their stock prices will still fall. Growth stocks have consistently outperformed value stocks over the years. Value stocks once overtook at the end of 2020, but then underperformed growth stocks again.But value investors need not be discouraged. A new study shows that there is increasing evidence that value stocks will outperform growth stocks in the next few years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c40db6879c789bc53508092b1e228bb\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Value stocks are those stocks that have fallen out of favor, and their share prices have relatively low ratios to indicators such as profits, sales and book value, while growth stocks have relatively high ratios to these indicators.While on average value stocks have outperformed growth stocks over the past century, they have uncharacteristically underperformed over the past 15 years. Value stocks began to make a comeback starting in the fall of 2020, but have begun to underperform in recent weeks after months of strong gains. Whether the value stock rally has ended, or whether there will be a period of continuous outperformance of growth stocks after the rally is paused is a question many people are thinking about.A new study from AQR Capital Management thinks the answer is the latter. Cliff Asness, the founder of the company, recently focused on the question in a seminar: Can fundamental factors explain that investors are currently valuing growth stocks much higher than value stocks? His answer was: \"No.\"To understand the importance of AQR's findings, the first thing to point out is that investors almost always expect higher profits from growth stocks than value stocks, which is what makes such stocks growth stocks. The question is how much more can growth stocks grow than value stocks? How much higher should the valuation be?First, let's look at valuation. It is worth pointing out that the previous overtaking of value stocks over growth stocks did not affect investors' collective preference for growth stocks. According to data from Yardeni Research, the average P/E of growth stocks in the S&P 500 is 11.7 points higher than the average P/E of value stocks, almost three times the average gap over the past 10 years. \"AQR uses different research methodologies and definitions of value stocks, all of which come up with similar valuation gaps,\" Asnis said.Next, let's look at profits. AQR's research found that the gap between growth and value stocks is not as wide as the P/E gap, looking at analyst forecasts for profits. Analyst forecasts show that the contrast between five-year EPS growth and value stocks is now essentially the same as historical averages for typical growth stocks. Specifically, growth stocks averaged 4.2 percentage points higher than value stocks in their five-year EPS estimates from 1990 to 2017. As of June 30, 2021, the gap was 2.6 percentage points. (The average is a weighted average of 2,000 global stocks.)These studies show that profit expectations can't explain why the valuation of growth stocks is so high compared with value stocks.Of course, profit growth isn't the only metric that can be used to distinguish growth stocks from value stocks, but in general, Asnis found that when AQR only looks at analysts' profit growth expectations, the conclusions are similar.As the fundamental gap between growth stocks and value stocks is expected to continue to be consistent with historical levels, and the valuation gap between the two is much higher than historical levels, Asnis believes that value stocks are \"far more attractive than growth stocks.\"AQR's research found that over the next five years, growth stocks are expected to increase annualized EPS by an average of 2.6 percentage points higher than value stocks. But higher profit increases don't necessarily translate into better stock price performance, because a stock's return depends on how well it performs relative to expectations. Even if growth stocks grow their earnings per share, if the increase is lower than the market currently expects, their stock prices will still fall.We can make the assumption that you can bet on any of 10 horses in a horse racing race, and assuming that the favorite horse ends up third and the horse expected to finish tenth finishes seventh, then you can make more money if you place your bet on the latter rather than the former, even though the former still runs much faster than the latter.It must be emphasized that while Asnis believes value stocks will outperform growth stocks in the next few years, he recommends that investors diversify their stock portfolios and consider other factors besides value, including quality and kinetic energy.For investors looking to increase their holdings in value stocks, ETFs may be the most convenient and cheapest way. Investors looking to pick large-cap value stocks can consider the Vanguard S&P 500 (VOOV), an ETF that is one of the cheapest in its class with a 0.10% fee rate. Investors who want to choose small and mid-cap value stocks can consider Vanguard Russell 2000 Value (VTWV), which has a 0.15% fee rate.In terms of individual stocks, the author sorted out the stocks recommended by the best-performing investment briefs in Hulbert Financial Digest. First, he selected all the stocks recommended by at least three of the best-performing investment briefs, and then excluded P/E, price-to-book ratio and stocks with higher price-to-sales ratios than the S&P 500 index.The 10 screened stocks listed in the table are arranged by the number of times they have been recommended from top to bottom.Here are 10 stocks recommended by the best-performing investment briefs<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e938b32abd7985bef9ae82b151179b6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: Data as of July 20, 2021SOURCE OF DATA Hulbert Ratings; FactSet\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135894112","content_text":"就算成长股的每股收益增长了，但如果增幅低于市场目前的预期，其股价仍然会下跌。\n\n多年来，成长股持续跑赢价值股。2020年底价值股一度反超，但之后再次跑输成长股。\n不过价值投资者不必灰心，一项新研究显示，越来越多的证据表明未来几年价值股会跑赢成长股。\n\n价值股指的是那些失宠的股票，它们的股价与利润、销售额和账面价值等指标的比率相对较低，成长股股价与这些指标的比率则相对较高。\n虽然平均而言过去一个世纪价值股跑赢成长股，但过去15年却一反常态地跑输。从2020年秋季开始，价值股开始卷土重来，但在连续几个月的强劲上涨后，最近几周又开始跑输。价值股涨势是已经结束、还是涨势暂停后还会迎来一段持续跑赢成长股的时期是许多人在思考的一个问题。\nAQR Capital Management的一项新研究认为答案是后者。该公司创始人克里夫·阿斯尼斯(Cliff Asness)近日在一次研讨会上重点讨论了这样一个问题：基本面因素能否解释投资者目前对成长股的估值远高于价值股？他的回答是：“不能。”\n为了理解AQR的发现的重要性，首先要指出的是，投资者对成长股利润的预期几乎总是比价值股高，这正是让这类股票成为成长股的原因。问题是成长股的增长能比价值股高多少？估值应该高多少？\n首先来看估值。值得指出的是，价值股之前反超成长股并没有影响投资者对成长股的集体偏好。Yardeni Research的数据显示，标普500指数中成长股的平均市盈率比价值股平均市盈率高11.7个点，几乎是过去10年平均差距的三倍。阿斯尼斯说：“AQR使用了不同的研究方法和对价值股的定义，都得出了相似的估值差距。”\n接下来来看利润。AQR的研究发现，从分析师对利润的预测来看，成长股和价值股之间的差距并不像市盈率差距那么大。分析师的预测显示，目前典型成长股的五年每股收益增幅和价值股之间的对比与历史平均水平基本相同。具体来说，从1990年到2017年，成长股的五年每股收益预期增幅平均比价值股高出4.2个百分点。截至2021年6月30日，这一差距为2.6个百分点。（平均数是2000只全球股票的加权平均数。）\n这些研究表明，利润预期无法解释为什么和价值股相比目前成长股的估值如此高。\n当然，利润增长并不是唯一可以用来区分成长股和价值股的指标，但总的来说，阿斯尼斯发现，当AQR只研究分析师的利润增长预期时，得出的结论都是类似的。\n由于预计成长股和价值股在基本面方面的差距将继续和历史水平保持一致，而二者估值差距大大高于历史水平，因此阿斯尼斯认为价值股“远比成长股更有吸引力。”\nAQR的研究发现，未来五年，成长股的年化每股收益增幅预计平均将比价值股高出2.6个百分点。但更高的利润增幅并不一定会转化为更好的股价表现，这是因为股票的回报取决于它相对于预期的表现。就算成长股的每股收益增长了，但如果增幅低于市场目前的预期，其股价仍然会下跌。\n我们可以做这样一个假设：在一场赛马比赛中，你可以在10匹赛马中的任何一匹上下注，假设最被看好的马最终得了第三名，而预计将获得第十名的马得了第七名，那么如果你把赌注压在后者而不是前者身上，你就能赚更多钱，尽管前者仍比后者跑得快得多。\n必须要强调的一点是，虽然阿斯尼斯认为未来几年价值股将跑赢成长股，但他建议投资者的股票投资组合要多样化，除了价值之外还要考虑其他因素，包括质量和动能等。\n对于希望增持价值股的投资者，ETF可能是最方便、最便宜的方式。想选择大盘价值股的投资者可以考虑Vanguard S&P 500 (VOOV)，这只ETF是同类基金中最便宜的之一，费率为0.10%。想选择中小盘价值股的投资者可以考虑Vanguard Russell 2000 Value (VTWV)，该基金的费率为0.15%。\n个股方面，笔者对Hulbert Financial Digest中业绩最好的投资简报推荐的股票进行了梳理，首先挑选出所有被至少三份业绩最好的投资简报推荐的股票，然后剔除了市盈率、市净率和市销率高于标普500指数的股票。\n表格列出的筛选出的10只股票从上到下按被推荐的次数排列。\n以下是10只由业绩最好的投资简报推荐的股票\n\n注释：数据截至2021年7月20日\n资料来源：Hulbert Ratings；FactSet","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2297,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}