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雁翔云天
2021-07-28

Jim Rogers' Crisis Response Handbook

投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。来源丨巴伦周刊任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":803350027,"tweetId":"803350027","gmtCreate":1627424036869,"gmtModify":1703489494517,"author":{"id":3554543753250021,"idStr":"3554543753250021","authorId":3554543753250021,"authorIdStr":"3554543753250021","name":"雁翔云天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6198a1f9650cf49bbb49ecd27d0876f2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>j</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>j</body></html>","text":"j","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803350027","repostId":1109053454,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109053454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627394793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109053454?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jim Rogers' Crisis Response Handbook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109053454","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。\n\n\n来源丨巴伦周刊\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方","content":"One of the most classic lessons in the investment world is that when everyone around you fails to invest, opportunities come.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb340175a4c52ccc61fe1cd88143e62b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source | Barron's WeeklyAny common sense must reverse dramatically every fifteen yearsWhen the crisis comes, how should we respond?First, completely change the way you perceive a crisis. Crisis, according to a certain frequency, is bound to happen every once in a while. And a lot of common sense you believe in now may be deeply wrong fifteen years from now.Let's look back at history again. What became of common sense, which everyone thought was absolutely true in 1930, in 1945? Obviously it can no longer be what it was in 1930, because World War II has changed everything.It can be seen that for our world, change is the norm, but unchanged is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.That's why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and respect history. There is an old Chinese saying, \"Taking history as a mirror, you can know the ups and downs\", which is what it means.Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense doesn't have to be fifteen years. Sometimes maybe ten years, sometimes maybe twenty-five years. However, when we trace the vast amount of historical data, we will find that roughly every ten to fifteen years, a huge change will come. This is a high probability event.Give an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This was almost unthinkable ten years ago in 1981. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"red empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared in just two years. Affected by this, many people assert that capitalist ideology has achieved a historic \"ultimate victory\", and its result is irreversible. The most representative one is the \"conclusion of the end of history\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. But only fifteen years later, it was precisely capitalism itself that had a serious crisis, while many socialist countries represented by China were thriving and prosperous. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and America out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.From this, I can assert that everything we think is common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this point. This is by no means exaggerated, let alone sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, it is important to understand this deeply.So, what is the opportunity for common sense reversal? Simple, it's a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, even a good thing, and it is the perfect opportunity.In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"crisis\" and \"opportunity\", which means that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, which go hand in hand and complement each other.When the \"social economy\" section of a newspaper is covered with horrible headlines and news of the crisis, you may instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others may think differently. They will think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"Not bad. Whether it is a man-made disaster like the \"9.11\" incident or a natural disaster like the \"Japanese tsunami\", all disasters are sad things for our world and all mankind, but for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be hugely different. Harness these differences rather than be engulfed by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what the true brave and wise do.Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despairRemember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of depression and despair, the opportunity for the phoenix to survive will always exist. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the heavier and fuller the happiness when the opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful people in this world are, the deeper and unbearable despair they have experienced. Never, never exceptionally.Therefore, to those who have experienced crisis and are pessimistic and world-weary, I want to say this: \"It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. More than that, it will completely change in fifteen years, and then it will be your chance to be reborn.\"That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crisis, no matter how depressed and desperate your mood is, you must live tenaciously. As long as you live, you will usher in a turning point. This is the normal state of life and the law of nature. As the old Chinese proverb goes: \"If you keep the green hills, you will not be afraid of running out of firewood.\"My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a good friend who chose suicide because he was abandoned by his wife. I myself have been in a long-term depression due to divorce, but now I am thanking God for his gift every day. Because after fifteen years of divorce, I bathed in happiness again and lived a happy life every day. My experience is by no means unique. The same people and things happen around us every day, but you just don't realize it.In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate for some reason at some stage in their lives. But all pessimistic misanthropes must have one thing in common, that is, ignorance of history, that is, ignorance of \"one's life will be completely different in fifteen years\". Imagine that if you give up the idea of suicide, there may be a wonderful life waiting for you in the future.According to the data of the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around the age of 20. This is really a shame. If they didn't die, fifteen years from now, when they were thirty-five, the world would be very different, and their lives would be very different. This is definitely a high probability event. It's worth at least expecting it and waiting for once. Again, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it brings to you, wait a minute, the future will be different.Take Japan, for example. When the Nikkei crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, after that, Japan was resurrected with blood in a very short period of time, and it ushered in the peak of prosperity in 1980. It's exactly fifteen years.The same goes for the United States. In the United States in 1930, how many people committed suicide because they lost everything in the unprecedented \"Great Depression\", but if they had chosen to live tenaciously at that time, they would have ushered in a dramatic turn of fate until 1945. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the heyday of the United States' national strength was unprecedented.It's another fifteen years. Warren Buffett, the stock god, has a famous saying: \"Never short America, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I also want to borrow flowers to Buddha and say to everyone who is deeply in despair: \"Never short your own life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not a comfort, it is a fact.The first priority in dealing with the crisisSo what is the number one priority in dealing with the crisis?Simple, to have a clear understanding of what is happening in the world.Unfortunately, the vast majority of people can't do this. There are too many people who are indifferent to the countless signs of crisis around them, and can't actively explore the profound meaning behind these signs. Therefore, we must always keep a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the operation mechanism of this world and all the appearances caused by it.For example, what happened to India's financial system must be explored for all clues. No matter what you find or see, be sure to keep this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that you should never try to consult others when you are doing this. Be sure to maintain independence and avoid relying on others. Otherwise, when a problem happens, you will suffer-those who can't think with their own heads and only know to dance with the will of others will act completely blinded and at a loss once the progress doesn't go well.Therefore, when it comes to investment, it is only suitable for choosing things you are familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something that you don't even understand, if something goes wrong, it will be difficult not to be fooled.This is the so-called truth of \"don't do it if you are not familiar with it\".Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive intelligence\". Especially for a veteran investor like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me, and they all want to say from me, \"Dude, buy this! It's definitely a guaranteed profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they become incompetent people themselves.So again: trust your head and only spend money on what you know and what you are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.Think about the question this way: Suppose you only have twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? Not surprisingly, you will be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard from so-and-so about an excellent investment project!\"-This kind of whimsical thought will not happen again, will it? We won't search all over the world for what is available or what is not available or so-called \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\", right?That's the truth.To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, it's better to stay in the world you are familiar with and do nothing than to jump into the world you are unfamiliar with, at least you won't lose everything.In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they can't figure out the situation, they will choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly for an investment target to appear that can really convince them. Once they find something like this, they will cling to it tightly, track its development track closely, and don't put it into action until they are sure that it is foolproof.Once the real money is thrown in, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate. That's right, what you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason why you have this patience is that you have the confidence and clearly know where and when the selling point (selling your investment target) will appear.As long as it is a field you are familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether good or bad, you can immediately figure out the situation and take it calmly. The opposite is also true. If your investment is to follow the advice of others, you have no idea at all. That is to say, you can't figure out the most basic situations of what you are investing in and why you bought it in the first place. Understand, then if something goes wrong, you will only be blind.Whether you are buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this truth applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get favorable trading terms and buy good quality and cheap things than others.One of the most classic lessons in the investment world is: when everyone around you fails to invest, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment target will eventually appreciate, and it will appreciate significantly.It is because so many people fail that there is a chanceWhile most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can handle it with ease. The more poor the economy is and everyone is discouraged, pessimistic and disappointed, the higher the return will be for those who seize the opportunity to make decisive moves when the economy recovers.So I want to emphasize repeatedly: the iron law of investment is not to do it if you are unfamiliar with it. Never make an exception or take any chances.As long as you can do this, you don't have to worry about not making a lot of money.Of course, before investing, we must do a good job of investigation and research on the investment object. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information collection. On the contrary, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, putting your money in the bank and waiting for the opportunity is the only reasonable choice.However, even putting money in the bank does not mean absolute safety. Give an example. In 2006 and 2007, quite a few people realized that the economy was out of order, because the subprime mortgage problem was getting worse at that time, but most people did nothing and watched their money in the bank and real estate go up in smoke.Therefore, when the crisis comes, which bank is more reliable to put money in is also a question that needs great attention. Specifically, the bigger the bank, the better. The focus is not on scale, but on financial soundness. Be sure to give your hard-earned money to those financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.I personally have quite a few Russian bonds on hand. In addition to the high interest rate, the ratio of Russia's total government debt to GDP is not too high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very appealing to me and reassuring. But that doesn't mean that you can buy Russian bonds even if you don't even know where Russia is on the map, because Jim Rogers did.In short, ignore the advice of \"buy Russian bonds\" issued by someone in the newspaper or on the Internet. No matter what reason that advice is and whether it is correct or not, it has nothing to do with you. Because you don't understand this thing yourself. And as long as it is something you don't understand yourself, any investment behavior is wrong.Take myself for example. I not only know the position of Russia on the map, but also know how to find Russian brokers (middlemen) like the back of my hand. As for visiting Russia in person, it is even more a cinch. So, if someone asks me: \"How should I invest in Russia?\" My answer must be: \"You shouldn't invest in Russia without knowing how to invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.If you have the spare time to find a way to invest in Russia, it is better not to invest in Russia.Investment is risky, and decisions must be made carefully. Even myself, who has been investing in the 1970s for nearly half a century, has not always been a victorious general.Which assets must be held in a crisisWhat assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?Simple, dollars. I hold a lot of dollars myself.Now that's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the largest debtor country in the world, and the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and the situation is worsening day by day? In that case, why hold dollars?Let's break down the matter. First of all, it is necessary to understand what most people think and do. When a crisis breaks out, people tend to think, \"The dollar is a safe haven.\" Yes, it is precisely because there is danger that people must find a safe place for their property, and their preferred safe haven is the dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more crisis there is, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.The more severe the crisis is, the more exaggerated people's fanaticism for the US dollar and the extent of its appreciation is-note that this is a typical signal, don't miss it. And my approach is very simple, that is, decisively sell the dollar and buy something else worth investing in.Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe haven. How to avoid risks in times of crisis is ultimately related to what kind of crisis has occurred. However, it is also true that most currencies, except the US dollar, depreciate when a crisis occurs. As for gold, although it also has investment value, generally speaking, the price of gold tends to fall in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is very simple. A crisis will cause a shortage of cash. People who are short of money on hand often sell gold in a hurry and start cash for emergencies-note, this is another investment signal. In a high probability event, I will sell the appreciated US dollar in my hand and buy the depreciated gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at that time, and the practice will be different with different situations.Note that in the initial stage of the crisis, even if the price of gold will fall, it will rebound quickly. When people realize that there is something wrong with their country's economy, the situation is deteriorating day by day, and the currency is constantly depreciating, the first reaction in their minds is often to buy gold and silver-history has proved this countless times.Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon a little incredible. They may think that gold and silver can't be eaten as a meal, have no use value, and have poor liquidity compared with currency. It is a typical layman's practice to buy gold and silver to avoid safety. No need to mind, though. Most people are not experts, just ordinary people. This is what they do, that is, they want to buy gold and silver in times of crisis. Therefore, experts and adults can let these common people go and buy whatever they like!As for me personally, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and I bought more not long ago. In my opinion, if the price of gold and silver goes down, it will simply provide another opportunity to buy, not the other way around. The reason why I think so is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls for a while, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how experts, professors and central banks clamor for \"the uselessness of gold and silver\", I believe most people will turn a deaf ear and flock to the counter selling gold and silver again. I, too, have bought a lot of gold and silver now, and I am fully prepared for the future.In particular, gold is the favorite of Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and the price was extremely high. In addition, most people didn't have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare thing and out of reach. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold is already extremely simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime and anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures, and you can even buy gold bars in the business hall of the Bank of China branch.This shows the investment potential of gold.However, again, the most taboo thing about investing is to rely on others. Other people's opinions are not important, what matters is your own investment philosophy and opinions. And my investment opinion is that the reason why I want to buy gold and silver in times of crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or safety, but because most people instinctively think that these things are financially sound and safe.The same goes for the dollar. When the crisis breaks out, people will instinctively think that compared with the pound and euro, the US dollar is more reliable. Note that this is still only a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. But it doesn't matter whether it is objective or not, because people are bound to act according to subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there must be results-this is what provides inspiration for investors.What companies should do to deal with the crisisIn terms of dealing with the crisis, what can enterprises do to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen?Simply, first of all, you should drastically reduce your debt. You should not only reduce your own debt, but also pay more attention to your customers' debt situation. Because once a crisis occurs, those customers who are in poor financial situation and are ridden in debt will definitely implicate you and cause you great trouble. At least payment recovery will become a big problem.No business is willing to easily ostracize or give up any customer. I can totally understand that. But the problem is that customers with too much debt are a hot potato. Once something goes wrong, the situation often deteriorates quickly and catches you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt shows that he already has problems, and it is obviously not harmful to you to be aware of these problems and be prepared in advance.In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you cannot be underestimated. To take a step back, even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of individual customers will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is only for the reason of being responsible to your customers, you should pay full attention to this matter, and always be highly vigilant against those debt-ridden transactions.Not only that, but which country your customer is an enterprise is also very important, and it needs to be strictly monitored by the above principles. Because dealing with enterprises in high-risk countries, the probability of getting into trouble is much higher than that in low-risk countries.Another important point is to focus on the business that your enterprise is best at and has the most advantages, and try not to look forward to Shu and change your mind. Especially in times of crisis, we must not blindly pursue the so-called diversified management. Because they failed to quickly enter new business fields and implement diversification strategies, too many enterprises were criticized for \"lack of sense of speed\", and this evaluation was obviously unfair. The reason is simple, it is dangerous to blindly enter the unknown. Compared with the potential opportunities, I'm afraid the possibility of encountering more problems is greater. In fact, the more companies choose a diversified business model, the easier it is to get involved in all kinds of troubles and fall into all kinds of traps, thus leading to the continuous deterioration of business performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.In short, the more difficult the period is, the more enterprises must focus on the business they are familiar with and good at, and must not be half-hearted; At the same time, we should vigorously reduce debt and avoid dealing with enterprises that owe too much debt. In addition, it is also a good strategy to develop the habit of taking stock of assets in times of crisis, find out those assets that are not necessary, and then sell them to increase your cash reserves on hand.Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because the crisis is extremely difficult to predict but it is bound to come, it is the king way to deal with the crisis to prepare enough cash in advance to prevent problems before they happen.The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in time and use the money to repay debts to reduce the financial burden of enterprises; Then, focus entirely on what you do best in your core business area.As long as you can do this, no crisis can beat you or even hurt you.","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Rogers' Crisis Response Handbook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Rogers' Crisis Response Handbook\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯美股2021-07-27 22:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOne of the most classic lessons in the investment world is that when everyone around you fails to invest, opportunities come.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb340175a4c52ccc61fe1cd88143e62b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source | Barron's WeeklyAny common sense must reverse dramatically every fifteen yearsWhen the crisis comes, how should we respond?First, completely change the way you perceive a crisis. Crisis, according to a certain frequency, is bound to happen every once in a while. And a lot of common sense you believe in now may be deeply wrong fifteen years from now.Let's look back at history again. What became of common sense, which everyone thought was absolutely true in 1930, in 1945? Obviously it can no longer be what it was in 1930, because World War II has changed everything.It can be seen that for our world, change is the norm, but unchanged is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.That's why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and respect history. There is an old Chinese saying, \"Taking history as a mirror, you can know the ups and downs\", which is what it means.Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense doesn't have to be fifteen years. Sometimes maybe ten years, sometimes maybe twenty-five years. However, when we trace the vast amount of historical data, we will find that roughly every ten to fifteen years, a huge change will come. This is a high probability event.Give an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This was almost unthinkable ten years ago in 1981. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"red empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared in just two years. Affected by this, many people assert that capitalist ideology has achieved a historic \"ultimate victory\", and its result is irreversible. The most representative one is the \"conclusion of the end of history\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. But only fifteen years later, it was precisely capitalism itself that had a serious crisis, while many socialist countries represented by China were thriving and prosperous. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and America out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.From this, I can assert that everything we think is common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this point. This is by no means exaggerated, let alone sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, it is important to understand this deeply.So, what is the opportunity for common sense reversal? Simple, it's a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, even a good thing, and it is the perfect opportunity.In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"crisis\" and \"opportunity\", which means that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, which go hand in hand and complement each other.When the \"social economy\" section of a newspaper is covered with horrible headlines and news of the crisis, you may instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others may think differently. They will think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"Not bad. Whether it is a man-made disaster like the \"9.11\" incident or a natural disaster like the \"Japanese tsunami\", all disasters are sad things for our world and all mankind, but for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be hugely different. Harness these differences rather than be engulfed by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what the true brave and wise do.Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despairRemember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of depression and despair, the opportunity for the phoenix to survive will always exist. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the heavier and fuller the happiness when the opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful people in this world are, the deeper and unbearable despair they have experienced. Never, never exceptionally.Therefore, to those who have experienced crisis and are pessimistic and world-weary, I want to say this: \"It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. More than that, it will completely change in fifteen years, and then it will be your chance to be reborn.\"That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crisis, no matter how depressed and desperate your mood is, you must live tenaciously. As long as you live, you will usher in a turning point. This is the normal state of life and the law of nature. As the old Chinese proverb goes: \"If you keep the green hills, you will not be afraid of running out of firewood.\"My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a good friend who chose suicide because he was abandoned by his wife. I myself have been in a long-term depression due to divorce, but now I am thanking God for his gift every day. Because after fifteen years of divorce, I bathed in happiness again and lived a happy life every day. My experience is by no means unique. The same people and things happen around us every day, but you just don't realize it.In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate for some reason at some stage in their lives. But all pessimistic misanthropes must have one thing in common, that is, ignorance of history, that is, ignorance of \"one's life will be completely different in fifteen years\". Imagine that if you give up the idea of suicide, there may be a wonderful life waiting for you in the future.According to the data of the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around the age of 20. This is really a shame. If they didn't die, fifteen years from now, when they were thirty-five, the world would be very different, and their lives would be very different. This is definitely a high probability event. It's worth at least expecting it and waiting for once. Again, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it brings to you, wait a minute, the future will be different.Take Japan, for example. When the Nikkei crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, after that, Japan was resurrected with blood in a very short period of time, and it ushered in the peak of prosperity in 1980. It's exactly fifteen years.The same goes for the United States. In the United States in 1930, how many people committed suicide because they lost everything in the unprecedented \"Great Depression\", but if they had chosen to live tenaciously at that time, they would have ushered in a dramatic turn of fate until 1945. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the heyday of the United States' national strength was unprecedented.It's another fifteen years. Warren Buffett, the stock god, has a famous saying: \"Never short America, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I also want to borrow flowers to Buddha and say to everyone who is deeply in despair: \"Never short your own life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not a comfort, it is a fact.The first priority in dealing with the crisisSo what is the number one priority in dealing with the crisis?Simple, to have a clear understanding of what is happening in the world.Unfortunately, the vast majority of people can't do this. There are too many people who are indifferent to the countless signs of crisis around them, and can't actively explore the profound meaning behind these signs. Therefore, we must always keep a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the operation mechanism of this world and all the appearances caused by it.For example, what happened to India's financial system must be explored for all clues. No matter what you find or see, be sure to keep this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that you should never try to consult others when you are doing this. Be sure to maintain independence and avoid relying on others. Otherwise, when a problem happens, you will suffer-those who can't think with their own heads and only know to dance with the will of others will act completely blinded and at a loss once the progress doesn't go well.Therefore, when it comes to investment, it is only suitable for choosing things you are familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something that you don't even understand, if something goes wrong, it will be difficult not to be fooled.This is the so-called truth of \"don't do it if you are not familiar with it\".Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive intelligence\". Especially for a veteran investor like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me, and they all want to say from me, \"Dude, buy this! It's definitely a guaranteed profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they become incompetent people themselves.So again: trust your head and only spend money on what you know and what you are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.Think about the question this way: Suppose you only have twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? Not surprisingly, you will be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard from so-and-so about an excellent investment project!\"-This kind of whimsical thought will not happen again, will it? We won't search all over the world for what is available or what is not available or so-called \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\", right?That's the truth.To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, it's better to stay in the world you are familiar with and do nothing than to jump into the world you are unfamiliar with, at least you won't lose everything.In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they can't figure out the situation, they will choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly for an investment target to appear that can really convince them. Once they find something like this, they will cling to it tightly, track its development track closely, and don't put it into action until they are sure that it is foolproof.Once the real money is thrown in, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate. That's right, what you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason why you have this patience is that you have the confidence and clearly know where and when the selling point (selling your investment target) will appear.As long as it is a field you are familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether good or bad, you can immediately figure out the situation and take it calmly. The opposite is also true. If your investment is to follow the advice of others, you have no idea at all. That is to say, you can't figure out the most basic situations of what you are investing in and why you bought it in the first place. Understand, then if something goes wrong, you will only be blind.Whether you are buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this truth applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get favorable trading terms and buy good quality and cheap things than others.One of the most classic lessons in the investment world is: when everyone around you fails to invest, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment target will eventually appreciate, and it will appreciate significantly.It is because so many people fail that there is a chanceWhile most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can handle it with ease. The more poor the economy is and everyone is discouraged, pessimistic and disappointed, the higher the return will be for those who seize the opportunity to make decisive moves when the economy recovers.So I want to emphasize repeatedly: the iron law of investment is not to do it if you are unfamiliar with it. Never make an exception or take any chances.As long as you can do this, you don't have to worry about not making a lot of money.Of course, before investing, we must do a good job of investigation and research on the investment object. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information collection. On the contrary, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, putting your money in the bank and waiting for the opportunity is the only reasonable choice.However, even putting money in the bank does not mean absolute safety. Give an example. In 2006 and 2007, quite a few people realized that the economy was out of order, because the subprime mortgage problem was getting worse at that time, but most people did nothing and watched their money in the bank and real estate go up in smoke.Therefore, when the crisis comes, which bank is more reliable to put money in is also a question that needs great attention. Specifically, the bigger the bank, the better. The focus is not on scale, but on financial soundness. Be sure to give your hard-earned money to those financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.I personally have quite a few Russian bonds on hand. In addition to the high interest rate, the ratio of Russia's total government debt to GDP is not too high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very appealing to me and reassuring. But that doesn't mean that you can buy Russian bonds even if you don't even know where Russia is on the map, because Jim Rogers did.In short, ignore the advice of \"buy Russian bonds\" issued by someone in the newspaper or on the Internet. No matter what reason that advice is and whether it is correct or not, it has nothing to do with you. Because you don't understand this thing yourself. And as long as it is something you don't understand yourself, any investment behavior is wrong.Take myself for example. I not only know the position of Russia on the map, but also know how to find Russian brokers (middlemen) like the back of my hand. As for visiting Russia in person, it is even more a cinch. So, if someone asks me: \"How should I invest in Russia?\" My answer must be: \"You shouldn't invest in Russia without knowing how to invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.If you have the spare time to find a way to invest in Russia, it is better not to invest in Russia.Investment is risky, and decisions must be made carefully. Even myself, who has been investing in the 1970s for nearly half a century, has not always been a victorious general.Which assets must be held in a crisisWhat assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?Simple, dollars. I hold a lot of dollars myself.Now that's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the largest debtor country in the world, and the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and the situation is worsening day by day? In that case, why hold dollars?Let's break down the matter. First of all, it is necessary to understand what most people think and do. When a crisis breaks out, people tend to think, \"The dollar is a safe haven.\" Yes, it is precisely because there is danger that people must find a safe place for their property, and their preferred safe haven is the dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more crisis there is, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.The more severe the crisis is, the more exaggerated people's fanaticism for the US dollar and the extent of its appreciation is-note that this is a typical signal, don't miss it. And my approach is very simple, that is, decisively sell the dollar and buy something else worth investing in.Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe haven. How to avoid risks in times of crisis is ultimately related to what kind of crisis has occurred. However, it is also true that most currencies, except the US dollar, depreciate when a crisis occurs. As for gold, although it also has investment value, generally speaking, the price of gold tends to fall in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is very simple. A crisis will cause a shortage of cash. People who are short of money on hand often sell gold in a hurry and start cash for emergencies-note, this is another investment signal. In a high probability event, I will sell the appreciated US dollar in my hand and buy the depreciated gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at that time, and the practice will be different with different situations.Note that in the initial stage of the crisis, even if the price of gold will fall, it will rebound quickly. When people realize that there is something wrong with their country's economy, the situation is deteriorating day by day, and the currency is constantly depreciating, the first reaction in their minds is often to buy gold and silver-history has proved this countless times.Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon a little incredible. They may think that gold and silver can't be eaten as a meal, have no use value, and have poor liquidity compared with currency. It is a typical layman's practice to buy gold and silver to avoid safety. No need to mind, though. Most people are not experts, just ordinary people. This is what they do, that is, they want to buy gold and silver in times of crisis. Therefore, experts and adults can let these common people go and buy whatever they like!As for me personally, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and I bought more not long ago. In my opinion, if the price of gold and silver goes down, it will simply provide another opportunity to buy, not the other way around. The reason why I think so is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls for a while, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how experts, professors and central banks clamor for \"the uselessness of gold and silver\", I believe most people will turn a deaf ear and flock to the counter selling gold and silver again. I, too, have bought a lot of gold and silver now, and I am fully prepared for the future.In particular, gold is the favorite of Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and the price was extremely high. In addition, most people didn't have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare thing and out of reach. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold is already extremely simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime and anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures, and you can even buy gold bars in the business hall of the Bank of China branch.This shows the investment potential of gold.However, again, the most taboo thing about investing is to rely on others. Other people's opinions are not important, what matters is your own investment philosophy and opinions. And my investment opinion is that the reason why I want to buy gold and silver in times of crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or safety, but because most people instinctively think that these things are financially sound and safe.The same goes for the dollar. When the crisis breaks out, people will instinctively think that compared with the pound and euro, the US dollar is more reliable. Note that this is still only a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. But it doesn't matter whether it is objective or not, because people are bound to act according to subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there must be results-this is what provides inspiration for investors.What companies should do to deal with the crisisIn terms of dealing with the crisis, what can enterprises do to take precautions and prevent problems before they happen?Simply, first of all, you should drastically reduce your debt. You should not only reduce your own debt, but also pay more attention to your customers' debt situation. Because once a crisis occurs, those customers who are in poor financial situation and are ridden in debt will definitely implicate you and cause you great trouble. At least payment recovery will become a big problem.No business is willing to easily ostracize or give up any customer. I can totally understand that. But the problem is that customers with too much debt are a hot potato. Once something goes wrong, the situation often deteriorates quickly and catches you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt shows that he already has problems, and it is obviously not harmful to you to be aware of these problems and be prepared in advance.In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you cannot be underestimated. To take a step back, even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of individual customers will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is only for the reason of being responsible to your customers, you should pay full attention to this matter, and always be highly vigilant against those debt-ridden transactions.Not only that, but which country your customer is an enterprise is also very important, and it needs to be strictly monitored by the above principles. Because dealing with enterprises in high-risk countries, the probability of getting into trouble is much higher than that in low-risk countries.Another important point is to focus on the business that your enterprise is best at and has the most advantages, and try not to look forward to Shu and change your mind. Especially in times of crisis, we must not blindly pursue the so-called diversified management. Because they failed to quickly enter new business fields and implement diversification strategies, too many enterprises were criticized for \"lack of sense of speed\", and this evaluation was obviously unfair. The reason is simple, it is dangerous to blindly enter the unknown. Compared with the potential opportunities, I'm afraid the possibility of encountering more problems is greater. In fact, the more companies choose a diversified business model, the easier it is to get involved in all kinds of troubles and fall into all kinds of traps, thus leading to the continuous deterioration of business performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.In short, the more difficult the period is, the more enterprises must focus on the business they are familiar with and good at, and must not be half-hearted; At the same time, we should vigorously reduce debt and avoid dealing with enterprises that owe too much debt. In addition, it is also a good strategy to develop the habit of taking stock of assets in times of crisis, find out those assets that are not necessary, and then sell them to increase your cash reserves on hand.Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because the crisis is extremely difficult to predict but it is bound to come, it is the king way to deal with the crisis to prepare enough cash in advance to prevent problems before they happen.The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in time and use the money to repay debts to reduce the financial burden of enterprises; Then, focus entirely on what you do best in your core business area.As long as you can do this, no crisis can beat you or even hurt you.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nj-n4msY-SLHhQm_Sml6-g\">腾讯美股</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb340175a4c52ccc61fe1cd88143e62b","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nj-n4msY-SLHhQm_Sml6-g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109053454","content_text":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。\n\n\n来源丨巴伦周刊\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话“以史为镜，可以知兴替”，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓“红色帝国”便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的“终极胜利”，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的“历史终结论”。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，“危机”这个词是由“危”和“机”两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的“社会经济”版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：“上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！”可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：“感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！”\n不错。无论是“9·11”事件这样的人祸，还是“日本大海啸”这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：“没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。”\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：“留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。”\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对“十五年后自己的人生将截然不同”这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的“大萧条”中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：“永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。”我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：“永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。”这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓“不熟不做”的道理。\n所有人都喜欢“热点消息”“独家情报”。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点“内部消息”，都希望从我嘴里说一句“哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！”可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？“我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！”——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓“热点消息”“独家情报”了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择“按兵不动”，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的“购买俄罗斯债券”的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：“应该如何投资俄罗斯？”我的回答一定是：“如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。”就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：“美元是安全的避难所。”没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪“金银无用论”，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即“认为”这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到“缺乏速度感”的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：“现金为王”，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。\n而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2216,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}