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金钱爱我我爱金钱
2021-07-28

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Bargain hunting? Wait a little longer

外资不怀好意经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。 A股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。港股

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金钱爱我我爱金钱
·2021-07-28
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":801372764,"tweetId":"801372764","gmtCreate":1627485339358,"gmtModify":1703490973181,"author":{"id":3585253530091052,"idStr":"3585253530091052","authorId":3585253530091052,"authorIdStr":"3585253530091052","name":"金钱爱我我爱金钱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df97d16e5df9b53484375824fa3acbfb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>123</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>123</body></html>","text":"123","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801372764","repostId":1187015717,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187015717","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1627476468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187015717?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 20:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bargain hunting? Wait a little longer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187015717","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股","content":"Foreign capital has experienced a two-day plunge with bad intentions, and today's market seems to be relieved.The three major A-share indexes have shown certain signs of stabilization. The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component Index only fell slightly by 0.58% and 0.05% respectively, while the ChiNext Index<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>It turned red under the leadership of, closing up 1.61%.Hong Kong stocks also ushered in a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.35% and the Hang Seng Technology Index closing up 2.75%.In terms of sectors and individual stocks, new energy has risen again, and consumer, pharmaceutical, and Internet companies have also rebounded to a certain extent. After a panic, the days seemed to go back to before, and music and dancing continued.However, the calm on the stage can't hide the undercurrent under the stage.1、Hong Kong A-shares collectively fellThis round of sharp decline was caused by policies, especially policies aimed at off-campus education, which almost wiped out the industry. There is no way. Under the national grand strategy of encouraging childbirth, it is inevitable that anyone who runs counter to this policy will be \"pulled and closed\". Education stocks on Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, even if they are delisted, don't think it's strange.But the strange thing is that this time it is not just education stocks, but the entire market has been brought down. Since last Friday, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by nearly 10% in the past three trading days; The single-day drop over the past two days has been more than 1,000 points. From the K-line chart, it can be called a \"diving\" market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This kind of falling \"landscape\" appeared in 2019 and 2020, but corresponding to the macro environment at that time, the first time was because the first draft of the Sino-US Trade Negotiation Agreement was overturned, and the second time was because Trump imposed tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and the US-China trade war expanded. In 2020, it was caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia and the global stock market crash.This time, there is neither a trade war nor a major disaster. Although the macro economy is under pressure, it is generally stable. The policy is negative one after another, which is explained to a certain extent as \"there are 10 birds on the tree, one is shot, and the others are all scared away\".But such a panic selling, in the absence of extreme natural and man-made disasters, can it only be attributed to capital panic?Others blame it on the fall of the Hang Seng Technology Index. In the past three trading days, the decline was as high as 16.6%. Yesterday, it once fell by more than 10% in intraday trading, directly falling below the point when it was established.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is true that the Hang Seng Technology Index is where Internet giants gather together, and these giants are also heavyweights of the Hang Seng Index. This year, the country's anti-monopoly on the Internet has been rising one after another, and the stock prices of giants have generally fallen by more than 40%. Especially in the past three trading days, the stock king<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>With a drop of nearly 19%, the Hang Seng Technology Index and even the Hang Seng Index can't escape bad luck.But this is not the first time that anti-monopoly has happened. The market has been digested for half a year. Why do you have to wait until this time to concentrate on fleeing?Looking at A-shares, the situation is very similar. They have fallen by 5% in the past three trading days. This short-term sharp decline can only be compared with the trade war in 2018, the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020, and the big correction in February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A-share benchmark-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>, the stock price dropped from a high of 2,006 yuan last Wednesday to 1,712 yuan in 4 trading days, a drop of 13%. This sharp drop only happened when the performance at the end of October 2018 was less than expected, and the major correction in February this year, even in It did not happen when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year.Have Maotai's fundamentals changed? No, no.Has there been a significant impact on Maotai's operations? No, either.Starting from the national strategy, high-profit industries should serve more for fertility, the country's scientific and technological innovation, and the realization of the overall goal of socialism. There is no doubt about this. It also explains the reason for Maotai's sharp drop, but it is always attributed to macro factors. It seems difficult to say the past, so we might as well go back to the most direct influencing factor of stock prices--Market transactions。Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, Kweichow Moutai has become the favorite of foreign investors to invest in A shares, and of course it has also become the best target to observe the trend of foreign capital. Every abnormality in Moutai's stock price can capture information from the inflow and outflow of foreign capital. For example, five trading days before and after the \"218\" correction, foreign investors sold 1.28 million shares of Maotai, with a net selling amount of 22.4 billion; Another example is that on May 25, Moutai rose 6% in a single day, and foreign investors bought a net 1.42 million shares, with a net purchase amount of 4.5 billion.We found that the net sales of Kweichow Moutai by foreign capital in recent days have been very large, with a total of 810,000 shares sold and a net outflow of 10.3 billion. What signal is this?2、Stocks, bonds and exchanges have fallen, and foreign investors are smashing the market?On the other hand, in late A-share trading yesterday, there was a wave of abnormal fluctuations in stocks, foreign exchange bonds. At about 3 pm, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated intensively, reaching 0.5%, which is already very large in the exchange rate market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The FTSE China A50 Index not only rubbed sharply in late trading, A-shares fell 2.8% at the close, but also experienced a wave of diving after the close, falling another 3% within half an hour, equivalent to the biggest drop of 5.8% on the day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the bond market, a concentrated decline began at 15 o'clock. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond began to see a wave of yield rise at 15 o'clock, which meant that bond prices plummeted.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the U.S. stock market these days, the three major stock indexes have been rising steadily. Only Chinese concept stocks have passed a miserable round. Education stocks and the Internet will not be mentioned, but even new energy sources that represent the direction of the industry have fallen undecently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hong Kong stocks and A-shares fell sharply, stocks, bonds and exchanges stepped on two feet together, Chinese concept stocks were collectively abandoned, and Hong Kong Stock Connect has been in a state of net outflows for several consecutive days. Although there is no specific data support, if these signs are strung together, There is a high probability that foreign capital is smashing the market, or even maliciously shorting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We have no intention of using \"conspiracy theories\" to blame foreign capital for this plunge, but history also keeps telling us that the behavior of foreign capital, especially American capital, in this regard is really difficult for people to believe that it is just simple arbitrage. American capital has to bear important responsibilities for the financial crises in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong in 1997 and the economic crises in emerging countries in 2018.Nowadays, in the context of the increasingly fierce game between China and the United States, Americans can be called experts among experts in this respect by using their best financial means to interfere with their opponents and achieve the dual goals of politics and economy. As for the technique, it is also very simple.First, the inflow will raise the asset price, and then the market will be crazily smashed, and short through other derivatives, so as to finally realize the profit in the short term and make a lot of money from the crash.What's more, this time it's China's own policy that is negative, and the opportunity is rare.After the market closed yesterday, some media blamed the sharp drop in stocks, bonds and exchange rates on the running of foreign capital.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some people may question that foreign capital in and out of Hong Kong stocks is relatively free, and they can be unscrupulous. However, the net outflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect in the past few days, that is, the scale of 20 billion, is only a few drops of water compared with the volume of tens of trillions of A shares. How much spray can this stir up?Don't forget that many domestic institutions and retail investors have believed in foreign capital as a benchmark for operation, and following the pace of foreign capital has also become the belief of many people. The operation of foreign capital is only tens of billions, but the following trend caused by this can be tens of billions or even hundreds of billions.In addition, the channels for foreign investment in A-shares are not only Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, but also QFII. Currently, foreign investors hold 3.36 trillion yuan of A-shares, of which only 1.45 trillion yuan of northbound funds come in through Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the other nearly 2 trillion yuan come in through other channels such as QFII. If these funds participate in the smashing of the market at the same time, it will not only be a scale of 20 billion, and the damage caused will be even greater. More importantly, QFII operation data will not be released until the end of the quarter. In other words, even if they smash the market, it will be difficult for investors to get information immediately. If they follow the trend foolishly, they will only become \"accomplices\" of foreign capital.Besides, QFII belongs to domestic funds, and its supervision is relatively strong. It is not as free to enter and exit as Hong Kong's, but this doesn't seem to be difficult for foreign capital, such as the sudden increase in volume in Bitcoin. Last year's surge in Bitcoin can be attributed to unusually loose liquidity, but this condition obviously does not exist now. Combined with the sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks and A shares in the past two days, do you really believe that Bitcoin's surge has nothing to do with this?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3、We can't deal with foreign capital?However, how foreign capital makes waves is a matter for foreign capital, which does not mean that we can't deal with it. The state can see clearly in this respect.In April this year, in just one week, foreign capital flowed into A-shares by more than 40 billion yuan. The flow rate was very fast, and the amount seemed to be small, but the right to speak in A-shares was not small, and it could even affect the trend of \"public opinion\" in the market.At that time, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, made malicious remarks:First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission \"sees clearly\" foreign investment in A-shares.Second, if the foreign account causes large fluctuations in the stock market, we can suspend its trading.To put it bluntly, the regulatory authorities are not welcome to foreign capital who comes into A-shares to make waves and have malicious intentions, and have given a severe warning. In layman's terms, it means putting the ugly words first, and if you don't obey, you will stop trading!If these regulatory measures are somewhat simple and rude, they will be criticized for interfering too much in the market and affecting the confidence of overseas investors, then using the \"national team\" to fight against malicious foreign capital in the market is a self-protection act that respects the rules. Especially after the thrilling \"rescue war\" in 2015, the country has rich experience in this respect.Today, foreign capital has become a net inflow of 8 billion again, and Maotai has also soared by 3.27%, indicating that foreign capital is actually \"aware of the current affairs\", and it is not good to go against the Chinese government.4、What do you think of the market outlook?After talking about foreign capital, we still return to the market outlook that everyone is more concerned about.On today's disk, the obvious rebounds are new energy, consumption (liquor), the Internet, and even individual bank real estate. This is inevitably a bit confusing?I can understand new energy. After all, it represents the global industrial revolution and a \"bright future\". However, liquor, Internet, real estate banks and others were just hammered yesterday. It was agreed that they represented the \"decadent past\". Why are they collectively rebounding today?It is not ruled out that the \"national team\" will take action to stabilize the market, but when it returns to the capital market, it also has its own logic. In the long run, it must be consistent with the direction of the country and the world, but short-term fluctuations and deviations are actually normal. Because the stock price has fallen too much, someone will always buy the bottom.To put it deeper, some companies that are not in the national industrial direction may eventually die out or become a part of daily life, such as the Internet. It is a fact that the aura of high growth has faded, so it is also a fact that the valuation and logic have been killed. However, from the state to the people, they can't do without it, just as they can't do without \"water, electricity and coal\". Therefore, the value of the Internet as infrastructure is still there. No matter how bad it is, it won't be a big mistake.For stockholders, after caring about the future of their home and country, it's their turn to care about when to buy the bottom?Now, it is hard to say that these stock prices, which represent the \"decadent past\", have fallen to a reasonable price, because no one knows what anti-monopoly actions the country will take in the future, and what policies to reduce fertility will be introduced. And the valuation of these stocks is not very attractive. Moutai's dynamic PE is still 46 times, which has been at a high level for most of the past ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tencent's stock price has only returned to its position in May last year, with a dynamic PE of 20 times. Whether it is high or low will not be known until the announcement of the interim report results. However, judging from the disclosed information, it is estimated that the performance will not be very optimistic.There is also a heavy Federal Reserve interest rate meeting tonight.If you want to buy the bottom, just wait.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bargain hunting? Wait a little longer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBargain hunting? Wait a little longer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-07-28 20:47\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nForeign capital has experienced a two-day plunge with bad intentions, and today's market seems to be relieved.The three major A-share indexes have shown certain signs of stabilization. The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component Index only fell slightly by 0.58% and 0.05% respectively, while the ChiNext Index<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>It turned red under the leadership of, closing up 1.61%.Hong Kong stocks also ushered in a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.35% and the Hang Seng Technology Index closing up 2.75%.In terms of sectors and individual stocks, new energy has risen again, and consumer, pharmaceutical, and Internet companies have also rebounded to a certain extent. After a panic, the days seemed to go back to before, and music and dancing continued.However, the calm on the stage can't hide the undercurrent under the stage.1、Hong Kong A-shares collectively fellThis round of sharp decline was caused by policies, especially policies aimed at off-campus education, which almost wiped out the industry. There is no way. Under the national grand strategy of encouraging childbirth, it is inevitable that anyone who runs counter to this policy will be \"pulled and closed\". Education stocks on Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, even if they are delisted, don't think it's strange.But the strange thing is that this time it is not just education stocks, but the entire market has been brought down. Since last Friday, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by nearly 10% in the past three trading days; The single-day drop over the past two days has been more than 1,000 points. From the K-line chart, it can be called a \"diving\" market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea44e8f9c2a90108b703d571a831add\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This kind of falling \"landscape\" appeared in 2019 and 2020, but corresponding to the macro environment at that time, the first time was because the first draft of the Sino-US Trade Negotiation Agreement was overturned, and the second time was because Trump imposed tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and the US-China trade war expanded. In 2020, it was caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia and the global stock market crash.This time, there is neither a trade war nor a major disaster. Although the macro economy is under pressure, it is generally stable. The policy is negative one after another, which is explained to a certain extent as \"there are 10 birds on the tree, one is shot, and the others are all scared away\".But such a panic selling, in the absence of extreme natural and man-made disasters, can it only be attributed to capital panic?Others blame it on the fall of the Hang Seng Technology Index. In the past three trading days, the decline was as high as 16.6%. Yesterday, it once fell by more than 10% in intraday trading, directly falling below the point when it was established.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aec5d86c06cb9f7d868fa93265db1a1\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is true that the Hang Seng Technology Index is where Internet giants gather together, and these giants are also heavyweights of the Hang Seng Index. This year, the country's anti-monopoly on the Internet has been rising one after another, and the stock prices of giants have generally fallen by more than 40%. Especially in the past three trading days, the stock king<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>With a drop of nearly 19%, the Hang Seng Technology Index and even the Hang Seng Index can't escape bad luck.But this is not the first time that anti-monopoly has happened. The market has been digested for half a year. Why do you have to wait until this time to concentrate on fleeing?Looking at A-shares, the situation is very similar. They have fallen by 5% in the past three trading days. This short-term sharp decline can only be compared with the trade war in 2018, the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020, and the big correction in February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476d2dfe6bfbb0e1348082bb3e68a869\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A-share benchmark-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>, the stock price dropped from a high of 2,006 yuan last Wednesday to 1,712 yuan in 4 trading days, a drop of 13%. This sharp drop only happened when the performance at the end of October 2018 was less than expected, and the major correction in February this year, even in It did not happen when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out last year.Have Maotai's fundamentals changed? No, no.Has there been a significant impact on Maotai's operations? No, either.Starting from the national strategy, high-profit industries should serve more for fertility, the country's scientific and technological innovation, and the realization of the overall goal of socialism. There is no doubt about this. It also explains the reason for Maotai's sharp drop, but it is always attributed to macro factors. It seems difficult to say the past, so we might as well go back to the most direct influencing factor of stock prices--Market transactions。Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, Kweichow Moutai has become the favorite of foreign investors to invest in A shares, and of course it has also become the best target to observe the trend of foreign capital. Every abnormality in Moutai's stock price can capture information from the inflow and outflow of foreign capital. For example, five trading days before and after the \"218\" correction, foreign investors sold 1.28 million shares of Maotai, with a net selling amount of 22.4 billion; Another example is that on May 25, Moutai rose 6% in a single day, and foreign investors bought a net 1.42 million shares, with a net purchase amount of 4.5 billion.We found that the net sales of Kweichow Moutai by foreign capital in recent days have been very large, with a total of 810,000 shares sold and a net outflow of 10.3 billion. What signal is this?2、Stocks, bonds and exchanges have fallen, and foreign investors are smashing the market?On the other hand, in late A-share trading yesterday, there was a wave of abnormal fluctuations in stocks, foreign exchange bonds. At about 3 pm, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated intensively, reaching 0.5%, which is already very large in the exchange rate market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4595c9fbbb94c8f63e69ffa0d80de4\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The FTSE China A50 Index not only rubbed sharply in late trading, A-shares fell 2.8% at the close, but also experienced a wave of diving after the close, falling another 3% within half an hour, equivalent to the biggest drop of 5.8% on the day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb9fa0ef44baba21c43dfc676d62f06\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the bond market, a concentrated decline began at 15 o'clock. The Chinese 10-year Treasury Bond began to see a wave of yield rise at 15 o'clock, which meant that bond prices plummeted.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5d6b0298e45ef4de5481d621262293\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the U.S. stock market these days, the three major stock indexes have been rising steadily. Only Chinese concept stocks have passed a miserable round. Education stocks and the Internet will not be mentioned, but even new energy sources that represent the direction of the industry have fallen undecently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35ae05da66d8b6916823e4acd12a612\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hong Kong stocks and A-shares fell sharply, stocks, bonds and exchanges stepped on two feet together, Chinese concept stocks were collectively abandoned, and Hong Kong Stock Connect has been in a state of net outflows for several consecutive days. Although there is no specific data support, if these signs are strung together, There is a high probability that foreign capital is smashing the market, or even maliciously shorting.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805add633a6620a2fabee1c966d2ed74\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We have no intention of using \"conspiracy theories\" to blame foreign capital for this plunge, but history also keeps telling us that the behavior of foreign capital, especially American capital, in this regard is really difficult for people to believe that it is just simple arbitrage. American capital has to bear important responsibilities for the financial crises in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong in 1997 and the economic crises in emerging countries in 2018.Nowadays, in the context of the increasingly fierce game between China and the United States, Americans can be called experts among experts in this respect by using their best financial means to interfere with their opponents and achieve the dual goals of politics and economy. As for the technique, it is also very simple.First, the inflow will raise the asset price, and then the market will be crazily smashed, and short through other derivatives, so as to finally realize the profit in the short term and make a lot of money from the crash.What's more, this time it's China's own policy that is negative, and the opportunity is rare.After the market closed yesterday, some media blamed the sharp drop in stocks, bonds and exchange rates on the running of foreign capital.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da54687cbfb1c5c9159cd6914c02e869\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae782165293c8450b64ce4517fb305fc\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some people may question that foreign capital in and out of Hong Kong stocks is relatively free, and they can be unscrupulous. However, the net outflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect in the past few days, that is, the scale of 20 billion, is only a few drops of water compared with the volume of tens of trillions of A shares. How much spray can this stir up?Don't forget that many domestic institutions and retail investors have believed in foreign capital as a benchmark for operation, and following the pace of foreign capital has also become the belief of many people. The operation of foreign capital is only tens of billions, but the following trend caused by this can be tens of billions or even hundreds of billions.In addition, the channels for foreign investment in A-shares are not only Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, but also QFII. Currently, foreign investors hold 3.36 trillion yuan of A-shares, of which only 1.45 trillion yuan of northbound funds come in through Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the other nearly 2 trillion yuan come in through other channels such as QFII. If these funds participate in the smashing of the market at the same time, it will not only be a scale of 20 billion, and the damage caused will be even greater. More importantly, QFII operation data will not be released until the end of the quarter. In other words, even if they smash the market, it will be difficult for investors to get information immediately. If they follow the trend foolishly, they will only become \"accomplices\" of foreign capital.Besides, QFII belongs to domestic funds, and its supervision is relatively strong. It is not as free to enter and exit as Hong Kong's, but this doesn't seem to be difficult for foreign capital, such as the sudden increase in volume in Bitcoin. Last year's surge in Bitcoin can be attributed to unusually loose liquidity, but this condition obviously does not exist now. Combined with the sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks and A shares in the past two days, do you really believe that Bitcoin's surge has nothing to do with this?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93a06d0195b702bbe9535ef8e7d974d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3、We can't deal with foreign capital?However, how foreign capital makes waves is a matter for foreign capital, which does not mean that we can't deal with it. The state can see clearly in this respect.In April this year, in just one week, foreign capital flowed into A-shares by more than 40 billion yuan. The flow rate was very fast, and the amount seemed to be small, but the right to speak in A-shares was not small, and it could even affect the trend of \"public opinion\" in the market.At that time, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, made malicious remarks:First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission \"sees clearly\" foreign investment in A-shares.Second, if the foreign account causes large fluctuations in the stock market, we can suspend its trading.To put it bluntly, the regulatory authorities are not welcome to foreign capital who comes into A-shares to make waves and have malicious intentions, and have given a severe warning. In layman's terms, it means putting the ugly words first, and if you don't obey, you will stop trading!If these regulatory measures are somewhat simple and rude, they will be criticized for interfering too much in the market and affecting the confidence of overseas investors, then using the \"national team\" to fight against malicious foreign capital in the market is a self-protection act that respects the rules. Especially after the thrilling \"rescue war\" in 2015, the country has rich experience in this respect.Today, foreign capital has become a net inflow of 8 billion again, and Maotai has also soared by 3.27%, indicating that foreign capital is actually \"aware of the current affairs\", and it is not good to go against the Chinese government.4、What do you think of the market outlook?After talking about foreign capital, we still return to the market outlook that everyone is more concerned about.On today's disk, the obvious rebounds are new energy, consumption (liquor), the Internet, and even individual bank real estate. This is inevitably a bit confusing?I can understand new energy. After all, it represents the global industrial revolution and a \"bright future\". However, liquor, Internet, real estate banks and others were just hammered yesterday. It was agreed that they represented the \"decadent past\". Why are they collectively rebounding today?It is not ruled out that the \"national team\" will take action to stabilize the market, but when it returns to the capital market, it also has its own logic. In the long run, it must be consistent with the direction of the country and the world, but short-term fluctuations and deviations are actually normal. Because the stock price has fallen too much, someone will always buy the bottom.To put it deeper, some companies that are not in the national industrial direction may eventually die out or become a part of daily life, such as the Internet. It is a fact that the aura of high growth has faded, so it is also a fact that the valuation and logic have been killed. However, from the state to the people, they can't do without it, just as they can't do without \"water, electricity and coal\". Therefore, the value of the Internet as infrastructure is still there. No matter how bad it is, it won't be a big mistake.For stockholders, after caring about the future of their home and country, it's their turn to care about when to buy the bottom?Now, it is hard to say that these stock prices, which represent the \"decadent past\", have fallen to a reasonable price, because no one knows what anti-monopoly actions the country will take in the future, and what policies to reduce fertility will be introduced. And the valuation of these stocks is not very attractive. Moutai's dynamic PE is still 46 times, which has been at a high level for most of the past ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34629cb8aa8e8dd007b3f7e10059f328\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tencent's stock price has only returned to its position in May last year, with a dynamic PE of 20 times. Whether it is high or low will not be known until the announcement of the interim report results. However, judging from the disclosed information, it is estimated that the performance will not be very optimistic.There is also a heavy Federal Reserve interest rate meeting tonight.If you want to buy the bottom, just wait.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187015717","content_text":"外资不怀好意\n\n经历了两天的暴跌，今天的市场貌似松了一口气。\nA股三大指数有了一定的企稳迹象，上证和深成指只是分别微跌0.58%、0.05%，创业板指数则在宁德时代的带领下翻红，收涨1.61%。\n港股也迎来反弹，恒指收涨1.35%，恒生科技指数收涨2.75%。\n板块和个股上，新能源又涨了，消费、医药、互联网公司也有了一定的反弹。一阵惊慌之后，日子又似乎回到之前，接着奏乐接着舞。\n但是，台面上的平静，并不能掩饰台底下的暗流涌动。\n1、港A股集体沦陷\n此轮大跌，政策是诱因，特别是针对校外教育的政策，几乎把行业团灭。没办法，在国家鼓励生育的大战略底下，但凡和这个政策背道而驰的，被“拉人封铺”那是必然的，港股、美股上的教育股，即使退市都不要觉得有啥奇怪。\n但奇怪的是，这次不单单是教育股，而是整个市场都被带崩了。从上周五开始，过去的三个交易日，恒生指数跌幅近10%；过去两天的单日跌幅都超过1000点。从K线图上看，堪称“跳水”行情。\n\n这种坠落的“景观”，在2019、2020年都出现过，但对应当时的宏观环境，第一次是因为中美贸易谈判协初稿被推翻，第二次是特朗普对余下的3000亿美元中国进口货物加征关税，美对中贸易战扩大，2020年那次则是新冠肺炎爆发，全球股市大崩盘所致。\n这一次，既没有贸易战，也没有重大灾难，宏观经济虽然有压力，但总体上还算稳得住。政策上是接连利空，一定程度上解释为“树上有10只鸟，开枪毙了一只，其他的全吓跑了”，但如此恐慌性地抛售，在没有极端的天灾人祸面前，能仅仅归咎于资金恐慌吗？\n也有人将其归咎为恒生科技指数的坠落。过去三个交易日跌幅高达16.6%，昨日盘中一度跌幅超过10%，直接跌破成立时的点位。\n\n诚然，恒生科技指数是互联网巨头扎堆的地方，这些巨头同时也是恒生指数的权重股。今年国家对于互联网的反垄断一浪高过一浪，巨头们股价的跌幅普遍已经高达40%以上，尤其是过去三个交易日，股王腾讯跌幅近19%，恒生科技指数甚至恒生指数都难逃厄运。\n但反垄断这个事不是第一次发生，市场已经消化了大半年，为何要等到此时才集中出逃？\n再看看A股，情况也很类似，过去三个交易日大跌5%，这种短时间的急跌，只有2018年打贸易战，2020年新冠肺炎，以及今年2月的大回调，能够相提并论。\n\nA股的标杆-贵州茅台，股价从上周三的高位2006元，4个交易日被干到1712元，跌幅13%，这种急跌只有2018年10月底业绩不及预期，以及今年2月份大回调时才发生过，即使在去年新冠疫情爆发时都没有出现过。\n茅台的基本面变了吗？没有。\n茅台经营出现重大影响了吗？也没有。\n从国家的战略出发，高利润的行业要更多地为生育、为国家的科技创新、为实现社会主义总目标服务，这个没有疑问，也解释了茅台大跌的原因，但总是归咎于宏观因素，似乎也很难说过去，那我们不妨回到股价最直接的影响因素--市场交易。\n自开放港股通以来，贵州茅台已经成为外资投资A股的最爱，当然也成为观察外资动向的最佳标的，茅台股价的每一次异常，都能够从外资的流进流出中捕捉到信息。例如“218”大回调前后5个交易日，外资净卖出茅台128万股，净卖出金额224亿；又如5月25日，茅台单日大涨6%，外资净买入142万股，净买入金额45亿。\n我们发现，外资这几天的净卖出贵州茅台非常大，共抛售81万股，净流出金额103亿，这又是什么信号？\n2、股债汇下跌，外资在砸盘？\n另一面，昨天A股尾盘，有过一波股汇债的异常波动。下午3点左右，人民币对美元的汇率一波集中贬值，幅度达到了0.5%，这在汇率市场来说，幅度已经很大。\n\n富时中国A50指数不仅在尾盘急搓，A股收盘时跌2.8%，收盘后还出现一波跳水，半个小时内再跌3%，等于当天的最大跌幅达到5.8%。\n\n债券市场方面，15点开始出现一波集中的下跌。中国10年期国债，在15点开始出现一波收益率拉升，这意味着债券价格出现急跌。\n\n这几天的美股市场，三大股指是节节攀升，只有中概股，一轮惨过一轮，教育股、互联网就不说了，但连代表了产业方向的新能源都跌得不像样。\n\n港股、A股急跌，股债汇一起来踩上两脚，中概股被集体抛弃，港股通连续数天都是净流出状态，尽管没有再具体的数据支持，但如果把这些迹象串起来，大概率就是外资在砸盘，甚至是恶意做空。\n\n我们无意用“阴谋论”，把此次暴跌的责任都推给外资，但历史也不断告诉我们，外资特别是美资在这方面的行为，确实很难让人相信他只是简单的套利，97年东南亚、香港金融危机，2018年新兴国家的经济危机，美国资本都得负上重要责任。\n时下，中美博弈越演越烈的大环境下，动用自己最擅长的金融手段干扰对手，并从中达到政治和经济的双重目的，美国人在这方面堪称专家中的专家。至于手法，也很简单，先大肆流入，拉升资产价格，然后再疯狂砸盘，并透过其他的衍生工具做空，最终达到短期内利润变现，并从崩盘中再捞一大笔的目的。何况，这次是中国自己出的政策利空，机会难得。\n昨日收盘后，便有媒体将股债汇大跌归咎于外资的跑路。\n\n或许有人质疑，港股外资进出比较自由，他们可以肆无忌惮，但港股通这几天的净流出，也就是两百亿的规模，相比A股数十万亿的体量，只是几滴水花，这能激起多大的浪花？\n不要忘记，有不少国内的机构和散户，已经将外资信奉为操作标杆，跟随外资的步伐也成为不少人的信仰，外资的操作只是百亿规模，但是由此引发的跟风，可以是百亿甚至千亿规模。\n另外，外资投资A股的渠道，并不单单只是沪深港通一个渠道，还有QFII，当前外资持有A股3.36万亿元，其中通过沪深港通渠道进来的北向资金是只有1.45万亿元，其他近2万亿元，是通过QFII等其他渠道进来的。如果这些资金同时参与砸盘，那就不是仅仅两百亿的规模了，造成的损伤，会更大。更重要的是，QFII操作数据要等到季度末才公布，换句话说，即使它们砸盘，投资者也很难即时获得信息，傻乎乎地跟风，只会成为外资的“帮凶”。\n再说，QFII属于在境内的资金，对它的监管也比较强，进出没有香港那么自由，但这点似乎也难不倒外资，比如比特币的突然放量大涨。去年比特币的大涨可以归结于流动性异常宽松，但现在明显不存在这个条件，再结合这两天港股A股的大跌，你真的相信比特币的大涨和这没关系？\n\n3、我们对付不了外资？\n不过，外资如何兴风作浪，那是外资的事，不代表我们对付不了它，国家在这方面是看得清楚的。\n今年4月，短短一周时间，外资大幅流入A股超过400亿，流速非常快，看似量不大，但对于A股话语权可不小，甚至可以影响市场场内“舆论”走向。\n当时，证监会副主席方星海就放出过狠话：\n第一，对于外资进入A股投资，证监会“是看得清楚的”。\n第二，外资账户如果造成股市大幅波动，我们可以暂停它交易。\n说白了，监管层对于进来A股兴风作浪、不怀好意的外资是不欢迎的，并给予了严厉警告。通俗地讲，就是先把丑话说到前头，不听话就停你交易！\n如果说这些监管手段多少有点简单粗暴，会被人诟病为对市场干预过多，影响海外投资者的信心，那动用“国家队”在市场中和不怀好意的外资进行厮杀，就是尊重规则的自我保护行为。尤其是经历了2015年那场惊心动魄的“救市战”，国家在这方面已经经验丰富。\n今天，外资又重新变为净流入80亿，茅台也大涨3.27%，说明外资其实还是“识时务”的，跟中国政府对着干，没好处。\n4、后市如何看？\n说完外资，还是回归到大家比较关心的后市。\n今天的盘面上，反弹比较明显的是新能源、消费（白酒）、互联网，甚至不乏个别银行地产，这就难免有点困惑？\n新能源我可以理解，毕竟代表的是全球的产业革命，是“光明的未来”，但白酒互联网地产银行这些，昨天刚刚被重锤，说好了是代表“腐朽的过去”，怎么今天又集体反弹了啊？\n不排除“国家队”出手稳定市场，但回归到资本市场，它也有自己的逻辑，长线上看，肯定是跟国家，跟全球的前进方向一致，但是短期的波动和背离，其实也很正常，因为股价跌得太多，总有人会去抄底。\n往深层说，一些不是国家产业方向的公司，最终可能会消亡，也可能成为日常生活的一部分，例如互联网，褪去高增长的光环是事实，因此而造成杀估值、杀逻辑也是事实，但上至国家，下至百姓，都离不开它，就像离不开“水电煤”一样，所以互联网作为基础设施的价值还是在的，再不济，用公共事业股给它们估值，也不会犯大错误。\n对于股民，关心完家国前程，轮到关心何时抄底了？\n现在，很难说这些代表“腐朽过去”的股价已经跌到合理价位，因为后续国家还有什么反垄断动作，还有什么减少生育的政策出台，没有人知道。而这些股票的估值，也没有很吸引人，茅台的动态PE还有46倍，在过去十年绝大部分时间内，都是高位。\n\n腾讯股价也只是回到去年5月份的位置，动态PE20倍，高还是低，需要等到中报业绩公布后才能见分晓，不过从披露出来的信息看，估计业绩也不会很乐观。\n今晚还有重磅的美联储议息会议。\n想抄底，再等等吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2986,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5360211,"commentId":"5360211","gmtCreate":1627485349974,"gmtModify":1663231630448,"authorId":3585253530091052,"author":{"id":3585253530091052,"idStr":"3585253530091052","authorId":3585253530091052,"name":"金钱爱我我爱金钱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df97d16e5df9b53484375824fa3acbfb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDispla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