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夜流沙
2022-12-06

Aggre with that

After accurately predicting the current rebound in U.S. stocks two months ago, Wall Street's "big bears" began to be bearish

摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析

After accurately predicting the current rebound in U.S. stocks two months ago, Wall Street's "big bears" began to be bearish

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He advises investors to \"take profits before the bear market returns.\" Two months ago, Mike Wilson, chief U.S. stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, one of the biggest shorts on Wall Street, accurately predicted this rebound in U.S. stocks, but now, his view has changed.</p><p>In the past two months, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 20%, which is basically consistent with Wilson's forecast.</p><p>However, Wilson said in his latest research note that after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, \"the party is over now\" and advised investors to \"take profits before the bear market returns.\"</p><p>Wilson says:</p><p>If the S&P 500 index is to rise further to 4150 or even higher this rally, we believe U.S. stocks must be led by the Nasdaq, which, unlike the Dow, is still well below its 200-day moving average line. This also means that fundamentals are deteriorating further, and back-end rates will have to decline further to support valuations through short covering. If the Fed turns, it will be good for U.S. stocks</p><p>Wilson believes there is growing hope that the Fed will pivot before it is too late, that is, the Fed's pivot has the potential to avoid a recession and expand corporate earnings. He analyzed this problem from the following angles:</p><p>First, why did U.S. Treasury Bond rise so much? Wilson believes this is mainly related to Powell's failure to prevent easing financial conditions. Wilson believes that Powell in particular sounds more hawkish on this factor, but may actually be more dovish. If you look at how much financial conditions have tightened over the past year, it's hard to say that they have relaxed that much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f25240cfb276bb43edc9574d0a7609\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, last Friday's non-farm payrolls data was stronger than expected, which triggered a rapid sell-off in U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds on Friday, but from a technical point of view, neither completely turned downward. On the contrary, U.S. bonds still maintain a rebound trend, long-term bonds even maintain their upward trend, and the S&P 500 index is also close to its 200-day moving average. In short, as Wilson pointed out, the performance of the labor market has not scared off U.S. debt bulls, and real interest rates are likely to decline further next year as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve pauses rate hike activity.</p><p>Third, a few weeks ago, Wilson highlighted the broad improvement in U.S. stocks since the rally began in October, rather than concentrating on a few stocks. The fact that the magnitude of all major indexes is now well above levels reached during the summer rally is a positive to ignore. Wilson still emphasized that U.S. stocks will hit a new low next year.</p><p>The end of the \"bear market rally\" is imminent</p><p>But Wilson also warned:</p><p>Have a severely negative view on next year's earnings outlook, and even if we avoid the recession/labor cycle, the risk-reward of fighting for this potential upside is low. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 did break above its 200-day moving average last week, Wilson sees this as the \"perfect bull trap,\" especially given the upper resistance of the downtrend that has formed since the peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81ceb36f2346f14dcbbda5247099cfd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, towards the end of the 2019 and 2021 bull markets, the S&P 500 never reached its breadth-based potential, and today's situation is similar to those two times.</p><p>Wilson said:</p><p>What we called a bear market rally 6 weeks ago is running out of steam. While there may be some last leg to spare towards the end of the year, things have deteriorated materially given our forecast for next year's EPS well below consensus estimates. He believes the current situation is \"as unattractive as it was a year ago and after the bear market rally in August.\" From a short-term perspective, he said, \"4,150 is the upper limit of what this rally can achieve,\" and today, the S&P 500 index \"falls below last week's low of 3,938, coinciding with the 150-day moving average and will provide some confirmation of the trend that the bear market is about to return.\"</p><p>Finally, Wilson expects inflation to fall rapidly in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After accurately predicting the current rebound in U.S. stocks two months ago, Wall Street's \"big bears\" began to be bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter accurately predicting the current rebound in U.S. stocks two months ago, Wall Street's \"big bears\" began to be bearish\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-06 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Mike Wilson, chief U.S. stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that the current \"bear market rebound\" is coming to an end, and U.S. stocks will hit a new low next year. He advises investors to \"take profits before the bear market returns.\" Two months ago, Mike Wilson, chief U.S. stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, one of the biggest shorts on Wall Street, accurately predicted this rebound in U.S. stocks, but now, his view has changed.</p><p>In the past two months, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 20%, which is basically consistent with Wilson's forecast.</p><p>However, Wilson said in his latest research note that after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, \"the party is over now\" and advised investors to \"take profits before the bear market returns.\"</p><p>Wilson says:</p><p>If the S&P 500 index is to rise further to 4150 or even higher this rally, we believe U.S. stocks must be led by the Nasdaq, which, unlike the Dow, is still well below its 200-day moving average line. This also means that fundamentals are deteriorating further, and back-end rates will have to decline further to support valuations through short covering. If the Fed turns, it will be good for U.S. stocks</p><p>Wilson believes there is growing hope that the Fed will pivot before it is too late, that is, the Fed's pivot has the potential to avoid a recession and expand corporate earnings. He analyzed this problem from the following angles:</p><p>First, why did U.S. Treasury Bond rise so much? Wilson believes this is mainly related to Powell's failure to prevent easing financial conditions. Wilson believes that Powell in particular sounds more hawkish on this factor, but may actually be more dovish. If you look at how much financial conditions have tightened over the past year, it's hard to say that they have relaxed that much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f25240cfb276bb43edc9574d0a7609\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, last Friday's non-farm payrolls data was stronger than expected, which triggered a rapid sell-off in U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds on Friday, but from a technical point of view, neither completely turned downward. On the contrary, U.S. bonds still maintain a rebound trend, long-term bonds even maintain their upward trend, and the S&P 500 index is also close to its 200-day moving average. In short, as Wilson pointed out, the performance of the labor market has not scared off U.S. debt bulls, and real interest rates are likely to decline further next year as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve pauses rate hike activity.</p><p>Third, a few weeks ago, Wilson highlighted the broad improvement in U.S. stocks since the rally began in October, rather than concentrating on a few stocks. The fact that the magnitude of all major indexes is now well above levels reached during the summer rally is a positive to ignore. Wilson still emphasized that U.S. stocks will hit a new low next year.</p><p>The end of the \"bear market rally\" is imminent</p><p>But Wilson also warned:</p><p>Have a severely negative view on next year's earnings outlook, and even if we avoid the recession/labor cycle, the risk-reward of fighting for this potential upside is low. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 did break above its 200-day moving average last week, Wilson sees this as the \"perfect bull trap,\" especially given the upper resistance of the downtrend that has formed since the peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81ceb36f2346f14dcbbda5247099cfd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, towards the end of the 2019 and 2021 bull markets, the S&P 500 never reached its breadth-based potential, and today's situation is similar to those two times.</p><p>Wilson said:</p><p>What we called a bear market rally 6 weeks ago is running out of steam. While there may be some last leg to spare towards the end of the year, things have deteriorated materially given our forecast for next year's EPS well below consensus estimates. He believes the current situation is \"as unattractive as it was a year ago and after the bear market rally in August.\" From a short-term perspective, he said, \"4,150 is the upper limit of what this rally can achieve,\" and today, the S&P 500 index \"falls below last week's low of 3,938, coinciding with the 150-day moving average and will provide some confirmation of the trend that the bear market is about to return.\"</p><p>Finally, Wilson expects inflation to fall rapidly in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676715\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676715","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116146222","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson认为，当前这场“熊市反弹”结束在即，美股明年将创新低，他建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。两个月前，华尔街大空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Mike Wilson精准预测了美股的这一波反弹，但如今，他的观点却出现了转变。在过去两个月的时间里，标普500指数累计上涨了近20%，这和Wilson的预测基本一致。不过，Wilson在最新的研究报告中称，在上周美联储主席鲍威尔讲话结束后，“现在的这场派对结束了”，并建议投资者“在熊市回归之前，获利了结”。Wilson说：如果这次反弹，标普500指数要进一步上涨至4150点甚至更高，我们认为美股必须由纳斯达克指数领涨，与道指不同，纳斯达克指数仍远低于其200天移动平均线。这也意味着基本面正在进一步恶化，后端利率将不得不进一步下降，以通过空头回补来支撑估值。美联储若转向，将利好美股Wilson认为，美联储在为时已晚之前转向的希望越来越大，即，美联储的转向有可能避免衰退并扩大企业盈利。他从如下几个角度来分析这一问题：首先，为什么美国国债涨幅如此之大？Wilson认为，这主要与鲍威尔没有阻止放松金融状况有关。威尔逊认为，鲍威尔尤其在这个因素方面听起来更加强硬，但实际上可能是更为鸽派。 如果看一看金融环境在过去一年里收紧了多少，就很难说它们放松了那么多。其次，上周五的非农就业数据强于预期，这引发了周五美股和美债的快速抛售，但从技术角度看，两者都没有完全转头向下。相反，美债依然维持在反弹的趋势上，长期债券甚至维持涨势，标普500指数也险守200日移动均线。 简而言之，正如Wilson指出的那样，劳动力市场的表现并没有吓跑美债多头，随着经济增长放缓和美联储暂停加息活动，实际利率可能会在明年进一步下行。第三，几周前，Wilson强调了自10月开始反弹以来，美股出现了广泛的改善，而非集中在几只股票上。事实上，所有主要股指的幅度现在都远高于夏季反弹期间达到的水平，这是一个不容忽视的积极因素。Wilson依然强调，明年美股将创下新低。“熊市反弹”结束在即不过Wilson也警告称：对明年的收益前景持严重负面看法，即使我们避开了经济衰退/劳动力周期，争取这种潜在上行的风险回报也很低。此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周确实突破了200日移动均线，但Wilson认为这是“完美的多头陷阱”，特别是考虑到自高峰以来形成的下行趋势的上方阻力。最后，在2019年和2021年牛市即将结束时，标普500指数从未达到基于广度的潜力，今天的情况与这两次类似。Wilson称：我们6周前所称的熊市反弹正在失去动力。虽然到年底可能会有一些最后的余力，但鉴于我们对明年远低于市场普遍预期的EPS的预测，情况已经实质性恶化。他认为目前“与一年前和8月份熊市反弹后的情况一样没有吸引力”。 从短期的角度来看，他表示，“4150点是这次反弹可以实现的上限”，如今，标普500指数“跌破上周低点3938点，与150天移动平均线重合，将提供一些确认熊市即将回归的趋势。”最后，Wilson预计通胀将在2023年快速下降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2687,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":7771361,"commentId":"7771361","gmtCreate":1670369051523,"gmtModify":1670369052380,"authorId":3562148271530289,"author":{"id":3562148271530289,"idStr":"3562148271530289","authorId":3562148271530289,"name":"夜流沙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cdbfdfad31ab544ec1be7d1f1567e8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":629366163,"objectIdStr":"629366163","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"G","text":"G","html":"G","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}