To The Moon

① What Happened Today

The US stock bounce is spreading. AI infrastructure and semis are leading, but inflation risk isn't gone.

🔥 Anthropic IPO heats up, boosting AI sentiment
Anthropic started its IPO roadshow. Strong demand has underwriters considering raising the valuation above $1.5 trillion. Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia are all strategic investors. The market is refocusing on AI growth potential, but the huge fundraising could also pull money away from other tech stocks.

🔥 CoreWeave earnings drive AI infrastructure bounce
CRWV reported better-than-expected results and expects adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028. CRWV jumped 15.6% premarket, lifting NBIS up 13.9% and APLD up 10.1%.

The key signal from this bounce: the market is no longer just looking at how much money AI companies spend. It's starting to reward companies that can turn compute demand into profit.

🔥 NVDA bounces, semis recover
NVDA lost about $430B in market value over two days on management-related investigations and regulatory uncertainty. It bounced 3.7% premarket today.

The semi bounce is broadening: MRVL rose 9.1%, MU rose 7.4%, and memory names STX and WDC rose 9.5% and 8.6%.

⚠️ CPI beat, rates still a headwind for the bounce
US October core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% expected. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.99%. The market raised December rate-hike expectations, which could keep pressuring tech valuations.

Still, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.98% and S&P 500 futures up 0.96% premarket, showing money is still actively joining the bounce.

② What Money Is Betting On / Protecting Against

🟢 Buyers: Money is betting on a semi bounce on one side, while buying Puts to guard against another tech drop on the other.

SOXX | 11/20 155 Call buy to open$SOXX 20261120 155.0 CALL$ 
15,000 contracts | $4.785M | stock $148.44
Bought near the ask at $3.20, betting the semi ETF keeps rising short term. The $155 strike is about 4.4% away, and with little time left, it needs a fast bounce to offset time decay.

SPY | 11/30 760 Call buy to open$SPY 20261130 760.0 CALL$ 
5,230 contracts | $3.1485M | stock $750.94
Betting the S&P 500 keeps bouncing. $760 is an important watch level. If the stock can't break through, the Call will face time decay.

PLTR | 2027/02/19 190 Call buy to open$PLTR 20270219 190.0 CALL$ 
10,000 contracts | $10.9M | stock $167.38
Buyers put over $10M into a bet on upside over the next few months, showing some money still likes AI application stocks medium term.

NVDA | 12/04 165 Put buy to open$NVDA 20261204 165.0 PUT$ 
3,000 contracts | $2.847M | stock $168.02
Buyers bought Puts near the money, and the trade carries an earnings tag, showing the market is still guarding against more NVDA downside.

QQQ | 12/11 580 Put buy to open$QQQ 20261211 580.0 PUT$ 
5,000 contracts | $1.325M | stock $673.91
Buying a deeper out-of-the-money Put, possibly for extreme downside protection or directional speculation. One trade alone doesn't mean money is fully bearish.

🔴 Sellers: Money is concentrated in Put selling on semi and financial ETFs, showing some traders are willing to take downside risk for premium.

SMH | 12/18 490 Put sell to open$SMH 20261218 490.0 PUT$ 
2,550 contracts | $8.188M | stock $478.25
Selling an in-the-money Put, collecting $32.11 per share premium, breakeven about $457.89. This is an aggressive bullish position, not a conservative income strategy.

SMH | 2027/06/17 400 Put sell to open$SMH 20270617 400.0 PUT$ 
3,500 contracts | $8.9075M | stock $477.55
Collecting $25.45 per share premium, breakeven $374.55. Compared with the 490 Put, there's more downside cushion, but risk is carried for longer.

XLF | 2027/09/17 55 Put sell to open$XLF 20270917 55.0 PUT$ 
20,000 contracts | $4.3M | stock $57.97
Sellers bet the financial ETF stays at a relatively high level long term. Breakeven about $52.85.

XLE | 12/18 61 Put sell to open$XLE 20261218 61.0 PUT$ 
10,000 contracts | $1.57M | stock $62.12
Selling a Put with the stock near $61 shows a neutral-to-bullish view on energy. Breakeven about $59.43.

③ What to Watch for Related Tickers

SOXX / SMH | Can the semi bounce last?
SOXX saw short-term 155 Call buying, while SMH had two Put sales totaling over $17M. Buyers are betting on upside; sellers are willing to take downside risk. Together they show bullish positioning in semis.
But SMH's 490 Put is an in-the-money seller position. If the bounce fails, it can lose quickly. Today, watch whether semis stay stronger than the broad market.

NVDA | A bounce doesn't mean risk is gone
NVDA is up 3.7% premarket, but the earlier 165 Put buying shows the market still wants defense. Watch whether the stock can stay well above $165 and whether the bounce comes with falling Put implied volatility.
If the stock bounces and Put prices fall at the same time, that's bad for traders who bought protection earlier. But one day's bounce isn't enough to confirm risk is gone.

SPY / QQQ | Can the index bounce break through?
SPY saw 760 Call buying, showing some money betting the bounce continues. QQQ saw 580 Put buying, showing the market hasn't fully given up downside protection.
The key now isn't whether the index is near the top of this week's range. It's whether it can break through and hold. If it pulls back after a breakout and still finds buyers, that could actually signal more strength.

④ What to Watch Before the Open Today

• AI infrastructure: CRWV, NBIS, APLD — Watch whether the earnings-driven rally continues or fades after the open.

• Semis: SOXX, SMH, NVDA — Watch whether the bounce spreads from individual names to the whole sector, and whether NVDA catches up.

• Memory: MU, STX, WDC — Big premarket gains. Watch whether they stay stronger than the market after the open.

• Index: SPY, QQQ — Focus on SPY's $760 and whether QQQ's bounce continues. Also watch for changes in rate expectations.

One-Line Read:
The market is shifting from fear to a bounce, with AI infrastructure and semis turning strong first. Being near the top of the expected range doesn't mean you should sell Calls. A strong break and hold could actually favor bullish strategies. But rate pressure from CPI and NVDA-specific risks still need guarding against.