To The Moon

🐶 Good morning, everyone!

Monday, 9 November 2026. A new trading week begins, and the US futures market is looking relatively flat this morning. There is no major directional conviction just yet. Bulls are waiting for another reason to push prices higher, while bears are looking for signs that inflation and interest rates could remain a problem.

For Options Puppy, this is exactly the kind of market where I prefer to slow down, observe and collect option premiums rather than chase every green or red candle.

This week, my biggest focus is not simply whether the Nasdaq or S&P 500 goes up or down. It is what the Federal Reserve thinks about inflation, economic growth and the future direction of interest rates.

I have four calendar entries worth watching today:

* Monthly Wholesale Trade.

* Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks.

* Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks to the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

* The scheduled Fed speech entry for Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

One small calendar detail: the final two entries appear to refer to the same Barkin appearance, rather than two separate policy announcements.

Let’s break everything down for beginners and understand why these events can become catalysts for the stock market.

1️⃣ Why should we care about interest rates? 💵

Before discussing the four events, we need to understand one important relationship.

Interest rates influence almost everything in the financial market.

When the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, borrowing money becomes more expensive. Businesses may postpone expansion, consumers may reduce spending and investors may become more selective about buying growth stocks.

When interest rates decrease, borrowing becomes cheaper. Companies may find it easier to expand, consumers may spend more and investors may become more comfortable taking risks.

Think about a company that wants to build a new factory.

If borrowing costs are 3%, the company may find the project attractive. If borrowing costs rise to 7%, the same project could become less profitable.

This is why interest rates matter to companies, banks, technology stocks, property stocks and even dividend-paying ETFs.

🐶 The relationship between rates and stock prices

Generally:

* Lower interest rates can support growth stocks because future earnings become more valuable today.

* Higher interest rates can pressure technology and speculative stocks.

* Lower rates can support REITs because financing costs may decline.

* Higher rates can make Treasury bonds and money market funds more attractive compared with dividend stocks.

However, this relationship is not automatic. If the Fed cuts rates because the economy is collapsing, stocks can still fall.

For Options Puppy, I always want to understand why interest rates are changing, not just whether they are going up or down.

2️⃣ Event One: Monthly Wholesale Trade – What does it tell us? 📦

The first event on Monday is the Monthly Wholesale Trade report, scheduled for 10:00 AM US Eastern Time.

Beginners might wonder why investors care about wholesale trade. Isn’t it just about companies buying and selling products in bulk?

Actually, it provides useful information about the health of the economy.

Wholesale businesses purchase products from manufacturers and distribute them to retailers. These products can include electronics, food, industrial equipment, clothing and household goods.

When wholesale sales increase, it can suggest that businesses are seeing stronger demand and retailers are replenishing their inventories.

When sales decline, it may indicate weaker demand or that businesses are becoming more cautious.

🐶 How can this become a market catalyst?

There are two possible scenarios.

Scenario A: Wholesale activity is stronger than expected.

This could suggest that economic activity remains healthy. Companies are selling more products, businesses are restocking and consumer demand may be holding up.

The positive interpretation is that corporate earnings could remain resilient.

However, there is another side.

If demand remains too strong, investors may worry that inflation will remain elevated. This could make the Federal Reserve less willing to reduce interest rates.

That is why good economic news can sometimes become bad news for the stock market.

Scenario B: Wholesale activity is weaker than expected.

This could indicate that businesses are experiencing slower demand.

Investors might interpret this as a sign that economic growth is cooling.

If inflation also moderates, markets may become more optimistic about future interest-rate cuts.

But if economic activity weakens too much, investors could worry about falling corporate earnings.

My Options Puppy interpretation

I would not buy technology stocks simply because wholesale sales are strong.

I want to see whether the data is consistent with healthy economic growth without creating additional inflation pressure.

The market needs a balance: strong enough growth to support earnings, but not so much inflation that the Fed needs to keep interest rates restrictive.

3️⃣ Event Two: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks 🎤

The second event is particularly interesting.

Austan Goolsbee is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He is part of the Federal Reserve system and participates in discussions about monetary policy and economic conditions.

When a Fed official speaks, investors listen carefully for clues about future interest rates.

The most important thing is not simply whether Goolsbee sounds optimistic or pessimistic.

I want to understand his comments about:

* Inflation.

* Employment conditions.

* Economic growth.

* Consumer spending.

* Whether current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive.

* Whether the Fed should consider further rate cuts or maintain its current position.

🟢 Scenario A: Goolsbee sounds dovish

What does dovish mean?

A dovish Fed official is generally more comfortable with lower interest rates or monetary easing.

Suppose Goolsbee suggests that inflation is gradually moving towards the Fed’s target and that the labour market is cooling.

Investors may interpret this as a sign that the Fed has more room to reduce interest rates.

Potential beneficiaries could include:

* Nasdaq technology stocks.

* Growth companies.

* Small-cap stocks.

* REITs.

* Gold-related investments.

Why?

Lower expected interest rates can reduce the discount rate investors use when valuing future company earnings.

This is particularly important for growth companies whose profits are expected to increase substantially in future years.

🔴 Scenario B: Goolsbee sounds hawkish

Hawkish means the Fed official is more concerned about inflation and is less comfortable reducing interest rates.

Suppose he says inflation remains sticky and the economy is still running too hot.

Investors may start reducing expectations for future rate cuts.

Treasury yields could rise, putting pressure on growth stocks.

This could create volatility in the Nasdaq, particularly among expensive technology companies.

🐶 What will Options Puppy watch?

I will pay attention to the reaction in the 10-year Treasury yield, the US dollar, Nasdaq futures and gold.

I do not need to predict every word Goolsbee says.

I need to understand how the market interprets his message.

Sometimes the Fed official delivers a relatively neutral speech, but the market reacts sharply because investors were positioned for something different.

That difference between expectations and reality is where volatility comes from.

4️⃣ Events Three and Four: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks 🏦

The third and fourth calendar entries relate to Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

He is scheduled to speak to the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce, with a separate calendar listing identifying the appearance as a Fed speech.

For beginners, remember that the Federal Reserve is not just one person.

The Federal Reserve system includes the Board of Governors and regional Federal Reserve Banks. Different officials contribute their views on economic conditions and monetary policy.

This is why investors pay attention to multiple Fed speakers.

🐶 Why is Barkin important?

I want to listen for three things.

First: Inflation.

Is inflation coming down fast enough?

If Barkin believes inflation remains stubborn, the market may conclude that interest rates need to stay higher for longer.

That could pressure expensive growth stocks.

Second: Employment.

Is the labour market cooling gradually, or is unemployment increasing too quickly?

A healthy labour market supports consumer spending and corporate earnings.

However, if employment weakens significantly, investors may become concerned about an economic slowdown.

Third: The balance between inflation and growth.

This is the difficult part for the Federal Reserve.

The Fed wants to control inflation without unnecessarily damaging the economy.

If Barkin sounds comfortable with the current economic environment, markets may see that as reassuring.

If he expresses concerns about persistent inflation, investors may become more cautious.

🔍 Why listen to two Fed presidents?

Imagine Goolsbee sounds dovish but Barkin sounds hawkish.

The market now has two different perspectives.

Investors must decide whether the Fed is moving towards a more accommodative position or whether policymakers remain divided about the appropriate timing of future rate cuts.

This can create movements in Treasury yields, the dollar and equity valuations.

My lesson for beginners: never trade just because one Fed official uses a particular word. Look at the bigger picture and compare the comments with the incoming economic data.

5️⃣ The bigger picture: Interest rates, Treasury bonds and the stock market 📊

Let’s connect everything together.

When investors expect interest rates to remain high, they may prefer holding short-term Treasury bills or money market funds because these instruments offer relatively attractive yields.

This creates competition for stocks.

For example, imagine a company pays a 3% dividend while a relatively low-risk government instrument offers a much higher yield.

Investors may question whether taking additional equity risk is worthwhile.

On the other hand, when interest rates are expected to decline, investors may start looking for opportunities in equities, REITs and longer-duration bonds.

🐶 Why I watch TLT and Treasury yields

TLT is an ETF that provides exposure to long-term US Treasury bonds.

When long-term Treasury yields decline, TLT prices generally benefit. When yields rise, TLT prices generally face pressure.

This is because existing bonds with fixed coupon payments become more attractive when newly issued bonds offer lower yields.

However, long-term yields do not move solely because of Fed policy. Inflation expectations, government borrowing and demand for bonds also matter.

For Options Puppy, Treasury yields provide another way to understand what the market is pricing in.

I would rather observe the relationship between bond yields and equities than blindly assume that every Fed speech will cause stocks to rally.

6️⃣ Why Options Puppy prefers selling options instead of chasing the market 🐶

This brings me to my trading approach.

Last week, I was not interested in buying every stock that moved higher.

I preferred using options to collect premiums while managing the possibility of owning shares.

There are two strategies I want beginners to understand:

* Selling covered calls.

* The wheel strategy using Grab (GRAB).

🐶 Strategy One: Selling a covered call

A covered call involves owning 100 shares of a stock and selling one call option against those shares.

For example, suppose I own 100 shares of a company trading at $50.

I sell a call option with a $55 strike price and receive $1.00 premium per share.

I collect $100 in premium.

There are two main outcomes.

Outcome A: The stock remains below $55.

The call may expire worthless, and I keep the $100 premium and my 100 shares.

I can consider selling another call in a future cycle.

Outcome B: The stock rises above $55.

My shares may be called away at $55.

I keep the premium, but I give up the additional upside above the strike price.

This is why I need to choose my strike carefully.

Why did I sell calls last week?

My objective was to generate additional income from shares rather than simply waiting for the stock price to appreciate.

When the market is uncertain about interest rates, I do not necessarily want to chase a rally.

Selling covered calls can provide some premium income while I wait.

However, the premium is not free money. If the underlying stock falls significantly, the premium only provides a limited cushion against the share-price loss.

And if the stock rallies sharply, I may miss out on some upside.

7️⃣ Strategy Two: My Grab wheel strategy – Collecting premium step by step 🚗

Last week, I also continued working on my wheel strategy with Grab.

This is a strategy I particularly like explaining to beginners because it combines cash-secured puts and covered calls.

Here is what I did.

Step 1: I sold a $3 cash-secured put

I started by selling a put option at a $3 strike price.

By selling the put, I collected an option premium while accepting the obligation to purchase 100 Grab shares at $3 each if assigned.

My potential purchase commitment was:

100 \times \$3 = \$300

I was comfortable with the possibility of owning Grab at that price.

Step 2: I got assigned 100 Grab shares

The share assignment meant I became a shareholder.

Instead of treating assignment as a failure, I moved to the next stage of my wheel strategy.

I now had 100 shares that could be used to sell a covered call.

Step 3: I sold another $3 covered call

After receiving my shares, I sold a covered call at the same $3 strike price.

I collected $0.15 per share.

100 \times \$0.15 = \$15

🐶 My Grab wheel trade

Cash-secured put strike

$3.00

Shares assigned

100

Covered call strike

$3.00

Call premium

$0.15

Premium collected

$15

Before fees and commissions. Excludes the premium from the original put, which was not specified here.

Step 4: What happens next?

There are two possibilities.

If Grab stays below $3:

The covered call may expire worthless. I keep my 100 shares and the $15 premium. I can consider selling another covered call.

If Grab rises above $3:

My shares may be called away at $3. I keep the $15 premium, and I can restart the wheel by considering another cash-secured put.

The important thing is that I must understand my effective cost basis, including the original put premium, before calculating my actual profit or loss.

Why I like the wheel strategy

The wheel gives me a structured approach to trading.

Instead of randomly buying shares, I begin by selling puts at prices where I am willing to own the stock.

If assigned, I move to covered calls.

If my shares are called away, I can start another cycle.

But there is one important warning: the wheel does not guarantee profits. If Grab drops substantially below $3, the $15 call premium will not protect me from a large share-price decline.

8️⃣ Why am I making these trades now? 🎯

This is where I connect my options trading to the macroeconomic environment.

I know that this week is important because investors are trying to understand the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Futures being relatively flat tells me that the market has not yet established a strong direction this morning.

I do not want to buy calls simply because I expect a rally.

I also do not want to sell puts aggressively when the market could experience a sudden correction.

My approach is to use options selectively.

My covered-call strategy:

* Collect premiums from shares I already own.

* Choose strikes where I am comfortable selling my shares.

* Avoid selling calls too close to the market price just to collect a larger premium.

* Remember that covered calls limit upside.

My Grab wheel strategy:

* Sell puts at prices where I am willing to own the shares.

* Accept assignment when the trade conditions are met.

* Sell covered calls against my 100 shares.

* Collect premiums while managing my cost basis.

I am not trying to predict every movement in the market. I am trying to build a repeatable trading process.

9️⃣ What’s my plan from here? 📅

For Monday, I will monitor the following:

What I watch Why it matters

Nasdaq futures Technology market sentiment

S&P 500 futures Overall market direction

US 10-year yield Long-term borrowing and valuation expectations

US dollar Interest-rate and global capital flows

Gold Interest-rate expectations and safe-haven demand

TLT Long-term Treasury bond movements

GRAB Whether my wheel strategy remains attractive

There is another important event coming tomorrow.

Tuesday, 10 November, brings the October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This is particularly important because CPI provides a more direct indication of inflation.

According to the published economic calendar, the market is looking ahead to this week’s inflation data. TD Economics +1

If inflation comes in lower than expected, investors may become more optimistic about future rate cuts.

If inflation surprises on the upside, bond yields could rise and growth stocks could come under pressure.

I will therefore avoid making oversized trades ahead of important economic announcements.

🔟 Final thoughts from Options Puppy 🐶

Monday may look quiet, with futures relatively flat, but I do not consider this an unimportant trading day.

The four calendar entries give us an opportunity to understand how policymakers view the economy.

Wholesale trade tells us something about business activity.

Goolsbee gives us another perspective on inflation, employment and monetary policy.

Barkin provides another important regional Fed perspective.

And together, their comments may influence expectations for future interest rates.

For beginners, remember this:

The stock market does not just trade on whether the economy is good or bad. It also trades on what investors expect the Federal Reserve to do next.

A strong economy can support earnings, but it can also keep interest rates elevated. A weaker economy may increase the possibility of rate cuts, but it can also threaten corporate profits.

That is why I prefer to remain disciplined.

Last week, I collected premiums through covered calls and continued my Grab wheel strategy, starting with a $3 cash-secured put, accepting assignment and selling a $3 covered call for another $15.

I am not trying to become rich from one trade.

I want to build a process where I understand my risks, manage my capital and collect premiums consistently when the opportunity makes sense.

🐶 Options Puppy motto: Don’t chase every candle. Understand the catalyst, respect the risk and let the premiums work for you.

Educational discussion only. Options involve substantial risks, including assignment, losses on the underlying shares and the possibility of missing significant upside.

#OptionsPuppy #MarketMorning #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CPI #CoveredCalls #WheelStrategy #GRAB #StockMarket #OptionsTrading

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  

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