To The Moon

​If Democrat Gina Hinojosa wins the Texas governorship, the direct transmission mechanism to markets is a freeze on AI infrastructure buildout.

​1. The Policy Pivot

• She pledges an immediate moratorium on new datacenter approvals until state laws pass protecting water and grid resources.

• Plan includes a special session to retroactively revoke 20-year tax incentives granted to large datacenters back in 2015.

• Current status: Governor Abbott paused approvals in September, but markets expect Abbott to lift it post-election. A Hinojosa victory extends the freeze indefinitely.

• Worst-case scenario: A Democratic sweep of both the governorship and Senate seats.

​2. The Macro Math

• 27% of total US datacenter power capacity (GW) sits in Texas (Wells Fargo / CNBC).

• 13.3 GW of already-announced datacenter projects face immediate regulatory hold or cancellation risk (Jefferies).

​3. Who Takes the Hit? (Stock Impact)

• Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta): Annoying, but balance sheets absorb it. They simply reroute capital expenditure to other states.

• Neoclouds & Highly Leveraged Players (High Risk): Tier-2/3 cloud providers already under financing strain face severe unit economics hits if projects stall.

• Directly Exposed Names:

​$Oracle(ORCL)$  : Deep capital commitments to Texas infrastructure.

​$Blue Owl Capital Inc.(OWL)$  : Heavy private-credit/equity financing tied to these facilities.

​Crusoe Energy: Direct operational exposure to Texas power compute.

​4. The Elon Musk / Tesla Factor

• Loss of Abbott removes his key state-level ally for tax credits, fast-track permitting, and grid access.

• EV Business: Minimal operational disruption.

• xAI & Tesla Compute Expansion: High risk. Any new cluster/Giga-compute plans face the exact same moratorium as other datacenters.

• $Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$  : Largely insulated (governed primarily by federal FAA/DoD oversight, not state policy).