It is time to cut

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旷世猛男
2023-02-16

It is time to cut

Betting on the Chinese market has become Wall Street's "most crowded trade"

中国股市仍有进一步的上涨空间。

Betting on the Chinese market has become Wall Street's "most crowded trade"

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Strategists believe that there is still room for further upside in China's stock market.As investors turn to the Chinese market and emerging market stocks, betting on the Chinese market has become the \"most crowded trade\" on Wall Street.On Wednesday, Bank of America's monthly survey of 262 fund managers showed,In February, global fund managers increased their equity allocation to emerging markets, including China, for the third consecutive month。More than 20% of fund managers believe that \"going long China\" has become the \"most crowded trade\" in the market, the first time since the survey began in 1985.Since the beginning of November last year, the adjustment and optimization of China's epidemic-related measures have greatly boosted market sentiment, and blue-chip stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have risen by 14%. Foreign capital is also actively participating in the Chinese market, with a net purchase of US $27.7 billion in domestic stocks in January, a record high in a single month.The survey also found that in February this year, 46% of fund managers adjusted the proportion of emerging market stock allocation to \"overweight\". This is helped by investors' increased optimism about China's economic outlook and confidence that the dollar's rally has peaked.Strategists believe that,There is still room for further upside in China's stocks. Societe Generale estimates that the average P/E of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange this year is 11.6 times, and the expected earnings increase is 18.8%; The average P/E of emerging markets is 12.4 times, and the expected earnings growth is 6.7%.Pramol Dhawan, managing director of US fund manager Pimco, said emerging markets are undervalued compared to history and are \"undervalued\" as an asset class after investor withdrawals in 2022.Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup, believes that cash-rich Middle East sovereign wealth funds may also drive Chinese stocks higher:Given the huge rise in purchasing power of energy producers in the financial markets, now is a good time for them to invest this wealth. Petrodollar investors will use their wealth to cement long-term economic and commercial relationships, especially with other emerging markets.But fund managers also believe that trading is hot to be \"worrying\"-the increasing popularity of Chinese stocks is hard to believe that the market enthusiasm will continue unwanted.More than two-thirds of respondents noted that they believe the reopening of China's economy could push up global inflation, and the biggest tail risk for fund managers is that inflation will stubbornly remain elevated for longer.Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, said:The reopening of China's economy is clearly good for global growth, but if it does translate into higher inflationary pressures, as we've seen in other parts of the world during the post-pandemic recovery, then it could cause problems for central banks (outside China). At the same time, on Wednesday, the People's Bank of China exceeded the MLF for three consecutive months, launching 499 billion yuan of MLF operations and 203 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations. The transaction announcement stated that the two operations fully met the needs of financial institutions.Banny Lam, head of research at Ceb International Inv Corp Ltd., told the media:This is a short-term correction, and both Hong Kong and mainland China markets are likely to rebound in March as the Chinese government provides more policy support to different sectors of the Chinese economy to guide the market.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Betting on the Chinese market has become Wall Street's \"most crowded trade\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetting on the Chinese market has become Wall Street's \"most crowded trade\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2023-02-16 13:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Investors' optimism about China's economic prospects is growing. Strategists believe that there is still room for further upside in China's stock market.As investors turn to the Chinese market and emerging market stocks, betting on the Chinese market has become the \"most crowded trade\" on Wall Street.On Wednesday, Bank of America's monthly survey of 262 fund managers showed,In February, global fund managers increased their equity allocation to emerging markets, including China, for the third consecutive month。More than 20% of fund managers believe that \"going long China\" has become the \"most crowded trade\" in the market, the first time since the survey began in 1985.Since the beginning of November last year, the adjustment and optimization of China's epidemic-related measures have greatly boosted market sentiment, and blue-chip stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have risen by 14%. Foreign capital is also actively participating in the Chinese market, with a net purchase of US $27.7 billion in domestic stocks in January, a record high in a single month.The survey also found that in February this year, 46% of fund managers adjusted the proportion of emerging market stock allocation to \"overweight\". This is helped by investors' increased optimism about China's economic outlook and confidence that the dollar's rally has peaked.Strategists believe that,There is still room for further upside in China's stocks. Societe Generale estimates that the average P/E of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange this year is 11.6 times, and the expected earnings increase is 18.8%; The average P/E of emerging markets is 12.4 times, and the expected earnings growth is 6.7%.Pramol Dhawan, managing director of US fund manager Pimco, said emerging markets are undervalued compared to history and are \"undervalued\" as an asset class after investor withdrawals in 2022.Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup, believes that cash-rich Middle East sovereign wealth funds may also drive Chinese stocks higher:Given the huge rise in purchasing power of energy producers in the financial markets, now is a good time for them to invest this wealth. Petrodollar investors will use their wealth to cement long-term economic and commercial relationships, especially with other emerging markets.But fund managers also believe that trading is hot to be \"worrying\"-the increasing popularity of Chinese stocks is hard to believe that the market enthusiasm will continue unwanted.More than two-thirds of respondents noted that they believe the reopening of China's economy could push up global inflation, and the biggest tail risk for fund managers is that inflation will stubbornly remain elevated for longer.Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, said:The reopening of China's economy is clearly good for global growth, but if it does translate into higher inflationary pressures, as we've seen in other parts of the world during the post-pandemic recovery, then it could cause problems for central banks (outside China). At the same time, on Wednesday, the People's Bank of China exceeded the MLF for three consecutive months, launching 499 billion yuan of MLF operations and 203 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations. The transaction announcement stated that the two operations fully met the needs of financial institutions.Banny Lam, head of research at Ceb International Inv Corp Ltd., told the media:This is a short-term correction, and both Hong Kong and mainland China markets are likely to rebound in March as the Chinese government provides more policy support to different sectors of the Chinese economy to guide the market.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682066\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166103895","content_text":"投资者对中国经济前景的乐观情绪不断增强。策略师认为，中国股市仍有进一步的上涨空间。随着投资者纷纷转向中国市场和新兴市场股票，对中国市场的押注已经成为了华尔街“最拥挤的交易”。周三，美国银行对262名基金经理的月度调查显示，今年2月，全球基金经理连续第三个月增加了对包括中国在内的新兴市场的股票配置。超过20%的基金经理认为，“做多中国”已经成为市场上“最拥挤的交易”，这是自该调查始于1985年以来的首次。自去年11月初以来，中国对疫情相关措施的调整优化极大地提振了市场情绪，上海交易所的蓝筹股已经上涨了14%。外资也积极参与中国市场，1月份净买入中国境内股票277亿美元，创单月历史新高。调查还发现，今年2月，有46%的基金经理将新兴市场股票配置的比例调整为“增持”。这得益于投资者对中国经济前景的乐观情绪增强，以及对美元涨势已经见顶的信心。策略师认为，中国股市仍有进一步的上涨空间。法国兴业银行估计，在上海交易所上市的公司今年的平均市盈率为11.6倍，预期盈利增长18.8%；而新兴市场的平均市盈率为12.4倍，预期盈利增长6.7%。美国基金管理公司太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）董事总经理 Pramol Dhawan 表示，与历史相比，新兴市场的估值较低，而在2022年投资者大举撤资之后，新兴市场作为一个资产类别“被低估了”。花旗集团首席全球股票策略师 Robert Buckland 认为，现金充足的中东主权财富基金也可能推动中国股市上涨：鉴于能源生产商在金融市场上的购买力大幅上升，现在正是他们投资这些财富的好时机。石油美元投资者将利用他们的财富来巩固长期的经济和商业关系，尤其是与其他新兴市场的关系。但基金经理们也认为，交易已经火热到“令人担忧”——中国股票越来越受欢迎，令人难以相信市场热情会毫不减弱地持续下去。超过三分之二的受访者指出，他们认为中国经济重新开放可能推高全球通胀，基金经理面临的最大尾部风险是，通胀将在更长时间内顽固地保持在较高水平。美国银行全球研究部首席投资策略师 Michael Hartnett 表示：中国经济重新开放显然对全球经济增长有利，但如果这真的转化为更高的通胀压力，就像疫情后复苏期间我们在世界其他地区看到的那样，那么这可能给（中国以外的）央行带来问题。与此同时，周三，中国人民银行连续三个月超额续作MLF，开展了4990亿元MLF操作，以及2030亿元公开市场逆回购操作。交易公告称，两项操作充分满足了金融机构需求。Ceb International Inv Corp Ltd. 研究主管 Banny Lam 向媒体表示：这是一次短期调整，随着中国政府对中国经济的不同领域提供更多政策支持，引导市场，香港和中国内地市场都可能在3月份出现反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1905,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}