To The Moon

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$Earnings Call Insights: SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Q3 2026

Management View

• "SoFi delivered an exceptional third quarter by any measure." (CEO & Director Anthony Noto) "We achieved 35% growth in members and 44% growth in products... reaching $1.4 billion... and adjusted EPS of $0.18." (CEO Noto)

• "Given the momentum in the business and our ability to execute in a higher rate environment, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance." (CEO Noto) "We now expect 2026 adjusted net revenue of $5.04 billion... adjusted EBITDA of $1.66 billion... adjusted net income of $840 million... and adjusted EPS of $0.61." (CEO Noto)

• "Momentum across the business is broad-based and visibility remains strong, giving us confidence to provide preliminary 2027 guidance above our previous outlook." (CEO Noto) "We now expect to achieve $6.4 billion in 2027 adjusted net revenue... adjusted EBITDA... $2.240 billion... adjusted net income of $1.28 billion... and earnings per share of $0.90." (CEO Noto)

• "For clarity, our 2027 guidance does not require raising additional capital and no capital raise is assumed or needed in what Anthony laid out." (Chief Financial Officer Chris Lapointe)

Outlook

• "This guidance implies Q4 revenue of approximately $1.375 billion... adjusted EBITDA of $492 million... adjusted net income of $276 million... and adjusted EPS of $0.19." (CEO Noto)

• "For 2027, our preliminary outlook assumes 2 rate hikes in the year and a 24% effective tax rate." (CFO Lapointe) "We're expecting lending to grow 25% year-over-year... Tech Platform to return to growth of 25% year-over-year... [and] Financial Services... 35% year-over-year." (CFO Lapointe)

• "We changed our behavior because of the visibility that we have." (CEO Noto) "There's been no point in the company's history... where we control our own destiny more than we have." (CEO Noto)

Financial Results

• "We grew members 35% year-over-year to 17.1 million" and "total products increased approximately 44% year-over-year to 26.7 million." (CEO Noto)

• "Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $470 million" and "adjusted net income reached $243 million... Adjusted earnings per share were $0.18." (CEO Noto)

• "Total Q3 fee-based revenue was $571 million, representing 42% of total revenue compared to 39% in the second quarter." (CEO Noto)

• "The Lending segment generated approximately $807 million of adjusted net revenue" and "Lending net interest income was $607 million... [with] net interest margin of 6.14%." (CEO Noto)

• "We generated a record $16.9 billion of total loan originations" and "loan platform business originations reached approximately $3.8 billion." (CEO Noto)

• "Technology Platform segment revenue totaled $87 million in the quarter, down 24% year-over-year, primarily due to the previously disclosed transition of a large client." (CEO Noto)

Q&A

• John Hecht, Jefferies: "SMB lending... specific target market... and... prioritization... into 2027?" CEO Noto: "the SMB business is at a very nascent stage" and "it's still a start-up business... one we'll invest in over time."

• Kyle Joseph, Stephens: "walk us through... assumptions... each segment contributing" CEO Noto: "We made a concerted effort throughout this year to invest in long-term durability of growth" and CFO Lapointe: "we're expecting lending to grow 25%... Tech Platform... 25%... Financial Services... 35%."

• Andrew Jeffrey, William Blair: "dimensionalize TAM... Where does ARPU go?" CEO Noto: "our monetization metric... is revenue per product, not per user" and "The weighted average revenue per product will likely come down... because the mix of the lower revenue per product businesses is going to grow faster."

• Dan Dolev, Mizuho: "expand... ability to fund 2027 growth organically?" CFO Lapointe: "our 2027 outlook is going to be funded organically through 2 levers" and "our 2027 guidance does not require raising additional capital."

• Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP: "if rates... potentially lower... tailwind... or offsets?" CEO Noto: "I think we can operate just as well in a high rate environment as we can in a low rate environment" and "our outlook... is one that we can deliver if rates stay where they are and go higher and we can deliver if rates go lower."

• Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler: segment math vs. guidance. CFO Lapointe: "There's a slight uptick in the corporate line is the direct and straightforward answer."

• Kyle Peterson, Needham: LPB demand and partners. CFO Lapointe: "Overall demand remains really robust and strong" and "we just signed up 2 new partners in this quarter."

• Lance Jessurun, Scotiabank: tech platform growth mix. CEO Noto: "I don't look at the business that way" and "we're building a technology platform that serves SoFi."

• Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen: personal loan origination pace into 2027. CFO Lapointe: "we do expect continued momentum in the PL business" but "you are going to see a little bit of a mix from personal loans towards home loans and student loan refinancing."

• William Nance, Goldman Sachs: PL pricing vs. fees. CFO Lapointe: "origination fees are an important part of the overall economics" and "more than 50% of all new PL originations include these origination fees."

• Donald Fandetti, Wells Fargo: deposit mix and funding costs. CEO Noto: "we use the interest rate for customer acquisition" and CFO Lapointe: "we use a mix that provides the best combination... of cost, liquidity, duration and risk-adjusted returns."

• Reginald Lawrence Smith, Loop Capital: SoFi Plus growth slowdown and 1M target. CEO Noto: "our SoFi Plus growth was below what we expected" and "We are targeting 1 million SoFi Plus members by the end of next year."

• Craig Maurer, FT Partners: balance sheet vs. LPB mix. CFO Lapointe: "we're not managing to a predetermined split" and "we're going to continue to allocate originations based on where we see the best risk-adjusted returns."

• Gustavo Gala, Monness: moat and ROTCE/fee mix framing. CEO Noto: "we're trying to be a profit maximizer for unit economics" and CFO Lapointe: "right now, where we are is at 10% ROTCE" and "we're forecasting that our net income margin for next year is going to be 20%."

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts: slightly positive tone, with recurring diligence on LPB growth, personal loan concentration, tech platform re-acceleration, and funding; questions like "help me square that difference" (Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler) and "pushback... personal loan originations" (Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen) signaled targeted skepticism.

• Management: positive and confident in prepared remarks and largely consistent in Q&A, using emphatic language such as "we are raising our full year 2026 guidance" (CEO Noto) and "no capital raise is assumed or needed" (CFO Lapointe); one notable self-critique was "our SoFi Plus growth was below what we expected" (CEO Noto) followed by "the growth is reaccelerating again" (CEO Noto).

• Versus last quarter: management continued “exceptional quarter” framing (Q2: "nothing short of an exceptional quarter" (CEO Noto); Q3: "exceptional third quarter" (CEO Noto)) while shifting to earlier and more explicit 2027 guidance and repeated emphasis on organic funding.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Guidance posture shifted from ranges to raised, more specific targets: Q2: "we now expect... adjusted net revenue of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion" (CFO Lapointe); Q3: "We now expect 2026 adjusted net revenue of $5.04 billion" and "preliminary 2027 guidance" including "$6.4 billion" revenue and "$0.90" EPS (CEO Noto).

• KPI framing tightened: Q3 introduced a recurring framework—"Starting this quarter... we're going to consistently talk about our business through the lens of these 3 drivers" (CEO Noto)—versus Q2 emphasis on “inflection point” in cross-buy and product launches ("SoFi Plus" and "SoFi Coach" (CEO Noto)).

• SoFi Plus narrative changed from early traction to execution variability: Q2: "we surpassed 200,000 paid subscribers" (CEO Noto); Q3: "our SoFi Plus growth was below what we expected" (CEO Noto), while reaffirming "targeting 1 million" (CEO Noto).

Risks and Concerns

• Rate volatility remained central: "Our original 2026 guidance assumed 2 rate cuts" but "we've already had one rate hike" (CEO Noto), and CFO Lapointe cited "over $800 million of fair value losses" alongside "about $734 million of hedge gains" and said "Our hedges were highly effective."

• Tech platform customer concentration impact persisted: "Technology Platform segment revenue... down 24% year-over-year" due to "transition of a large client" (CEO Noto), paired with a stated goal: "return to 25% revenue growth in a steady state" (CEO Noto).

• SoFi Plus scaling execution was flagged internally: "our SoFi Plus growth was below what we expected" (CEO Noto), with mitigation: "those things are fixed" and "growth is reaccelerating again" (CEO Noto).

Final Takeaway

Management described Q3 as a quarter of accelerating scale and profitability, raised full-year 2026 targets, and issued preliminary 2027 guidance anchored on member growth, products per member, and revenue per product. Leadership repeatedly emphasized that the 2027 plan is intended to be funded organically, while acknowledging rate-driven fair value volatility, the tech platform client transition, and a temporary slowdown in SoFi Plus growth that management said is already reaccelerating.