To The Moon

When market sentiment is euphoric and asset prices have already risen sharply, investors may see potential for a pullback but hesitate to short the underlying asset. What if the rally continues? Could they withstand the losses?

In this Options Bootcamp livestream, experienced options investor Oliver , @Oliver 的期權旅途, shared one approach: when market enthusiasm is strong, implied volatility (IV) is elevated, and option premiums are relatively high, investors can explore selling calls at higher strike prices, starting with a small position.

However, finding a contract worth considering is only the beginning. Monitoring prices after opening a position, deciding when to adjust exposure, and keeping enough capital available for adverse market conditions all affect the outcome.

Using examples involving $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$, gold and silver, volatility-linked products, and the Korean market, Oliver discussed how he moves from identifying opportunities to planning specific trades. Throughout the session, he stressed that a market view needs to be supported by capital, position sizing, and an exit plan to keep a trade manageable.

🗣️ Livestream language: Mandarin
🎥 Watch the full replay ：https://tigr.link/9AUq6T

Finding Opportunities: Look Beyond Corporate Growth to Market Sentiment

Oliver encouraged viewers to broaden their search for opportunities. Alongside buying quality companies for long-term growth, sideways markets, pullbacks, and shifts in sentiment can also be worth studying.

He reviewed movements in Chinese stocks listed in the US, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, gold, silver, crude oil, and the memory chip sector. Different assets have their own cycles and rhythms. Investors need to identify opportunities they understand before deciding how to participate.

Turning to options, he linked market enthusiasm with option pricing: when an asset attracts widespread attention and IV is elevated, premiums may be higher, creating potential opportunities to explore option-selling strategies.

This observation also introduced the session’s central theme: after identifying an opportunity, investors still need to plan how to enter and manage the position. In Oliver’s view, the difficult part is often turning an opportunity into an actual return.

Gauging Market Enthusiasm: Search Trends, Social Discussion, and Policy Signals

Oliver shared several signals he watches when assessing market sentiment.

Search interest. He showed search trends for terms such as “bull market,” gold, silver, and memory chips to assess whether these assets were attracting unusually strong attention during market rallies. When an investment theme begins attracting people outside the usual investing community, he investigates whether the rally may be entering a later stage.

Social media and everyday conversations. Content on Xiaohongshu, Douyin, independent media channels, and investment groups can also indicate an asset’s popularity. He considers these discussions alongside valuations.

Regulatory and deleveraging measures. He cited examples such as exchanges raising margin requirements for gold and silver, and restrictions on leveraged products in the Korean market, as signals of potential overheating and changing risks.

These observations help him form a market view before exploring an options strategy. He also noted that gold and silver had continued rising even after exchanges increased margin requirements. Having a view therefore does not remove the need to allow for further adverse market moves.

The KWEB Example: Exploring Higher-Strike Calls When IV Is Elevated

Oliver used $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ to explain how he considers options trades while the market outlook remains uncertain.

According to his recap, KWEB was trading at approximately US$43–45 in October 2025. Expectations of a bull market were strong. He might have hesitated to short the underlying asset directly because the rally could continue. Instead, he would consider selling a call with an US$80 strike and approximately one year to expiry to express his view on the potential extent of further gains.

Oliver explained that when the outlook remains unclear, options with elevated IV and higher strikes can offer a starting point for exploring an identified opportunity. He also stressed that the initial position should be small.

This example brings together several elements: a market view, a strike price, an expiry date, and an initial position size. The focus is on translating a market assessment into a specific contract, supported by sufficient capital to withstand adverse moves.

Gold and Silver: Combining Elevated IV with a View on Further Upside

In his gold and silver examples, Oliver again discussed situations involving strong market enthusiasm and elevated IV.

For gold, he remained positive over the long term and might therefore be reluctant to short it directly. However, after a substantial rally, he would examine how much further prices might rise over a given period.

He used a scenario in which gold had already risen approximately 50% over the previous year, then considered whether a further 100% or 200% increase was likely. Combined with heightened market enthusiasm and IV, this could provide a basis for exploring option-selling strategies.

He also cautioned that pullbacks are often interrupted by rebounds. If investors keep increasing their positions after early gains, a subsequent rebound may make the exposure too difficult to maintain.

Opportunities involving elevated IV therefore need to be considered alongside ongoing position management.Resisting the urge to keep adding exposure as the market develops is one of his trading principles.

Adjusting Positions: Using Option Prices to Reassess the Original View

After entering a trade, Oliver encouraged investors to monitor price movements instead of relying solely on the belief that an asset “should” rise or fall.

In his KWEB example, if the call he had sold generated a profit equivalent to approximately 40%–50% of the original premium received, and he also believed the market trend had changed, he might first buy back the original contract to close the position, then modestly increase exposure or switch to a different contract.

This approach involves two considerations: the original contract’s price performance and his assessment of the market trend. He encouraged investors to use price changes to reassess their original views and avoid becoming overly attached to their expectations.

Any increase in exposure should remain restrained. He noted that a position that initially seems small can become difficult to bear when the market moves against it. A favourable price move does not justify unlimited position increases.

Why Does He Often Use Naked Short Calls? Weighing Protection and Holding Costs

Oliver discussed why he often uses naked short calls rather than short-selling the underlying asset or using spreads.

He explained that short-selling involves stock borrowing costs, while a spread requires purchasing another option for protection. He considers whether the cost of maintaining protection could affect his approach of waiting for market conditions to normalise. He therefore tends to prefer collecting option premiums while managing the position through position sizing and capital allocation.

This preference reflects Oliver’s own trading approach. During the discussion, he acknowledged that the potential loss on a naked short call is theoretically unlimited. He later explained how he approaches risk management through position sizing and margin planning.

He does not rule out spreads in every situation. Later, when discussing volatility-related trades, he also mentioned using spreads and stressed the need to manage margin and position size.

Trading Examples: Falling Volatility and the Korean Market

Example 1: Looking at Volatility-Related Opportunities After a Sharp Market Decline

Oliver said that after a sharp market sell-off, he usually examines volatility before considering technology stocks. This is because spikes and subsequent declines in volatility can occur more quickly than changes in stock prices.

He discouraged frequent trading aimed at capturing small, everyday fluctuations. A single unexpectedly large spike could place substantial pressure on a position. He prefers to wait for more extreme market conditions before exploring higher-strike short calls or spreads.

The same management requirements apply: control position size, maintain a margin buffer, and monitor prices. He also cautioned against repeatedly adding exposure simply because volatility has begun to fall.

Example 2: Using KORU for a Trade Linked to Korea’s Memory Chip Sector

Discussing the memory chip sector, Oliver said that even when he believed sentiment was overheated, he might hesitate to short Micron or SanDisk directly. He felt Micron still had fundamental support and was not sufficiently confident about its cyclical outlook, so he looked for another way to express his view.

In the $3倍做多韩国ETF-Direxion(KORU)$ example, he recalled initially selling a call with a US$120 strike when the underlying was trading at approximately US$60. As the contract became profitable, he adjusted the contracts and position size.

He closed the position when the underlying was trading in the US$30s, after which it subsequently fell to approximately US$10. He acknowledged that he had not captured the entire decline. Improving how he held the position would still have required appropriate position sizing, sufficient account margin capacity, and psychological preparation.

Prepare Both Account Margin and “Psychological Margin” Before Entering

Oliver divided trading preparation into account margin and psychological margin.

Account margin means considering funding needs under adverse conditions, rather than looking only at the initial margin requirement. The replay slides also highlighted scenarios to check: an adverse market reversal, rising IV, and increased margin requirements. After these changes, how much available capital would remain in the account?

He recommended maintaining a cash buffer and defining conditions for reducing exposure in advance, so the account still has sufficient funding flexibility when adjustments are needed.

Psychological margin refers to an investor’s capacity to tolerate losses. Before opening a position, investors should understand what level of loss would begin affecting their sleep, daily life, and judgment, and which exit threshold would require action.

He reflected on his experience shorting Pop Mart from approximately HK$300. Although the share price later fell to around HK$140–150, he had added to the position along the way. A rebound then caused him to question his view, and he ultimately made no profit.

Beyond getting the direction right, having sufficient capital and emotional capacity to sustain the position also affects the result. The slides likewise noted that investors should reduce or close positions when they reach their financial or psychological limits, or when the original trading thesis no longer holds.

Q&A and Market Outlook: From Selecting Contracts with IV to Managing and Exiting Positions

During the Q&A, Oliver addressed Hong Kong option premiums, rolling positions, position management, and entry timing. His answers repeatedly returned to the trading rationale, available capital, and exit arrangements.

Do Lower Premiums Mean Fewer Opportunities in Hong Kong Options?

One participant noted that premiums on Hong Kong options appeared relatively low. Oliver responded that trading volume and liquidity are comparatively lower, but premiums can also rise during periods of elevated IV.

This connects with the earlier KWEB, gold, and silver examples: when evaluating an options trade, investors should consider both the underlying asset’s outlook and the prevailing IV and available premium. Whether a premium is attractive still needs to be assessed alongside the strike, expiry, and risks involved.

If the Trade Goes Wrong, When Should You Roll?

Oliver said that if a position had not reached his preset stop-loss level, he would wait until expiry before rolling.

This reflects his personal approach to managing positions. As an additional clarification, expiry may involve cash settlement, physical delivery of shares, or assignment. Rolling requires handling the existing position and opening a new one; a position does not automatically continue after expiry. Execution therefore depends on the contract rules and account circumstances. Rolling also does not eliminate losses already incurred on the original position.

If Oil Rebounds After You Short It, Should You Close or Keep Waiting?

Oliver would first review three questions:

• Does the original bearish thesis still hold?

• Is there sufficient margin capacity?

• Can he tolerate the volatility involved in continuing to hold?

If the position has exceeded what he can bear, he needs to reassess the exposure and risk instead of simply hoping prices will fall again. Even if he still agrees with the original directional view, he must confirm that his capital and psychological capacity can support holding the position.

Should You Invest in $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ Regularly or Wait for a Major Decline?

Oliver noted that buying during a major decline may provide a more favourable entry price, but timing the market is difficult. Waiting two or three years for an ideal price could also mean missing gains during that period.

This illustrates that waiting has an opportunity cost. Alongside their desired entry price, investors need to consider their funding plans and whether they can accept the possibility that the market continues rising without a meaningful pullback.

Can Beginners Simply Sell Far-Out-of-the-Money Puts and Collect Premiums Comfortably?

A beginner mentioned regularly selling puts on Apple and NVIDIA with strikes well below the current share price and relatively long periods to expiry. Oliver reminded viewers that both the strike and expiry directly affect returns. The distance between the strike and the current price should not be the only consideration.

As an additional clarification, out-of-the-money puts remain exposed to declines in the underlying asset. When comparing contracts, investors should consider the premium, capital committed, holding period, and number of shares they would need to purchase if assigned. These factors help assess whether the premium adequately compensates for the risk. The risk also cannot simply be treated as equivalent to directly owning the same number of underlying shares.

What Was His Market Outlook?

Oliver said he was taking a wait-and-see approach to US-listed Chinese stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares, preferring to reassess at more extreme price levels. He was also choosing to stay out of US technology stocks at the time. He additionally shared personal views on gold, silver, crude oil, and freight-related products.

These views can change with market conditions. A more useful reference is how he defines the conditions for participating and when he chooses to continue waiting.

From using IV to select contracts to deciding whether to hold, roll, or exit, these answers returned to the session’s central point: after forming a market view, investors still need to confirm that the contracts, position sizes, and capital arrangements support the intended trading plan.

Bringing It Together: Turning Elevated IV into a Manageable Trading Plan

Elevated IV and higher premiums can provide a starting point for researching opportunities. Before opening a position, investors still need to work through the following:

1. Use market enthusiasm, valuations, and policy signals to identify opportunities they understand.

2. Compare strikes and expiries against their market view, and assess whether the premium is proportionate to the risk.

3. Start with a small position, then monitor the contract price and market trend.

4. Before switching contracts or adding exposure, reassess potential losses and margin pressure under adverse moves.

5. Maintain available capital and define acceptable losses, position-reduction triggers, and exit conditions.

Oliver stressed the need to keep reviewing prices, exposure, and account funding after entering a trade, while checking whether the original thesis still holds.

Moving from a market view to a trading plan means deciding how to enter, how to withstand fluctuations while holding, and when to exit. Even a correct directional view needs adequate capital and appropriate position sizing to participate in subsequent market moves.

🗣️ Livestream language: Mandarin
🎥 Watch the full replay ： https://tigr.link/9AUq6T

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To keep up with Oliver’s latest options trading ideas, follow @Oliver 的期權旅途 on Tiger Community for his market views, options trading rationale, and reviews of actual trades.

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Risk Notice

The livestream content, speaker’s views, and trading examples in this article are provided solely for investment education and discussion and do not constitute investment advice. High IV does not necessarily mean options are overpriced, nor does it guarantee that volatility will decline or that option sellers will profit. Index levels cited in the volatility examples should not be treated as IV entry thresholds for individual stock options.

The potential loss on a naked short call is theoretically unlimited. Position sizing, cash reserves, and rolling do not eliminate this risk, and rolling does not automatically eliminate realised losses on the original contract. Option sellers may face assignment, margin calls, forced liquidation, and substantial losses.

The prices and capital allocation ratios cited in the examples come from the speaker’s trade reviews or educational illustrations. They are neither current quotes nor general position-sizing recommendations. Before trading, investors should fully understand the contract rules, funding requirements, and their own risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.