$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Four quarters of accelerating AWS growth wasn't enough when capex at this scale keeps accelerating even faster with no end in sight. AWS can grow over 50%, but it doesn't matter until the market can see peak spending growth arrive and the FCF trough get overcome despite the huge absolute dollar amounts involved.
TLDR: it's a 250-260 stock that undershoots or overshoots for a bit but comes back to that base each time. Still, I'm not selling a single share, because one of the next three earnings reports should provide that visibility, and then this rips to 375-450 by end of 2027. Even with 270-300B in capex spend in 2027, because 2028 will finally flatten, and whenever that signal comes, FCF explodes — simple math.
Glad I didn't express my bullish view through options.
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