$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ This looks like a classic sell-the-news move without doing your own diligence.
WDC and STX make more reliable, superior products than Toshiba. They produce their own hard-drive magnetic heads, only turning to TDK when in-house capacity falls short. Some argue the shortage could stretch to 2030 - 2031. Seagate has already sold out 2027 and most of 2028. Toshiba, on the other hand, depends entirely on TDK for this component.
On the timeline, Toshiba was already in talks to buy this TDK division in the spring, only to be outbid by Seagate's better offer in the summer. Up to now, TDK still hasn't made a decision, so this isn't new news. Winning the bid matters far more to Toshiba than to Seagate. Seagate saw a chance to build some cushion and gain leverage over competitors, so it makes sense they jumped in with an offer.
If Seagate wins, I don't see how Toshiba gains any HDD storage market share, since they would depend on Seagate for this product. Seagate would first secure its own supply before selling the rest to competitors or Toshiba. If Toshiba wins, they might eventually gain some share long term, but not anytime soon; possibly not until the end of 2028 or beyond. Until then, Seagate has time to expand production of its own magnetic heads. They have options and time, so it's a win-win for them either way. Losing the bid would just be a small bump. This news should be treated as really good news for Seagate.
Whoever wins, it will still take time for everything to get approved and accepted by all parties, potentially including regulators.
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