To The Moon

1. Weekly Market Overview

Last week, U.S. equities overall maintained strength, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high. Although semiconductor stocks like AMD, INTC, and ARM pulled back at one point as the market reassessed Meta's AI demand, they still closed higher for the week — showing capital hasn't left the AI main line.

What truly drove risk appetite higher was September nonfarm payrolls adding only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the prior two months revised down. Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped rapidly from about 70% to about 20%, reigniting the rate-cut trade.

This week marks the start of Q3 earnings season, with market focus shifting from how much is being invested in AI to whether that investment can convert into revenue and profit. Therefore, the core tension this week is: rate-cut expectations support market valuations, but can AI and earnings expectations provide new upside catalysts?

2. Weekly Event Calendar

Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off
PEP, DAL, and others will be among the first to report Q3 results. The market expects S&P 500 Q3 earnings to maintain relatively high growth, with Information Technology and Energy potentially being the main sources of earnings growth. The market is beginning to focus on management commentary on Q4 demand, AI capex, and earnings outlook.

October 8 | Fed Meeting Minutes
The Fed releases meeting minutes, and the market will look for signals on inflation, employment, and the future rate path.
Impact: Focus on whether October rate-cut expectations can strengthen further, and whether long-end Treasury yields decline.

October 9 | Moderna Added to Nasdaq 100
Moderna replaces Warner Bros. Discovery, and passive fund rebalancing could amplify short-term trading and volatility in the affected stock.
Additionally, the launch of the world's first GPU compute futures, originally scheduled for October 5, has been delayed — temporarily slowing the financialization of compute.

3. Event and Volatility Observations

SPY | Market Maintains Strength, Watch 785 First
SPY closed Friday at 769.64, above the 20-day MA of 764 and the 20-week MA of 755. This week's ATM implied volatility is about ±1.15%, corresponding to a range of roughly 760–779.
Gamma flip point at 767 — the current price is still in positive Gamma territory, indicating some short-term stabilizing effect. Call wall at 785, Put wall at 767.
This week's watch: Above 767 maintains strength; only a break above 785 would signal further upside space opening.

QQQ | The Most Direct Market Barometer for Earnings Season
QQQ closed at 749.58, notably above the 20-day MA of 727 and the 20-week MA of 718. This week's implied range is roughly 736–763, with IV at 23.32%.
Gamma flip point at 744 — the current price is in positive Gamma territory. Call wall at 755, Put wall at 736.
This week's watch: Whether AI earnings and capex expectations can support QQQ breaking above 755.

IWM | 285 Is the Bull-Bear Dividing Line
IWM closed at 281.52, below the 20-day MA of 285 but still above the 200-day MA of 276. This week's implied range is 276–286, with a Gamma flip point at 281.
Call wall at 285, Put wall at 277. Recent block trades show both 285 Call buying and 269 Put selling, indicating capital still has expectations for a short-term rebound while also having some confidence in downside support.
This week's watch: A break above 285 leans strong; a break below 277 warrants guarding against structural weakening.

TLT | Waiting for Rate Trade Validation Under High IV
TLT closed at 77.48, below the 5-day MA of 78 and the 20-day MA of 80. Its IV historical position is as high as 96.4%, making it the core high-volatility target this week.
This week's implied range is 75–79, with a Gamma flip point at 77. Both Call and Put walls exist around 78.
On Friday, buyers appeared with 10,000 contracts of the 79 Call, notional about $1.88 million, showing capital starting to bet on a long-bond rebound.
This week's watch: Whether TLT can reclaim 78 hinges on whether long-end Treasury yields decline.

NVDA | Bullish Structure Intact, 235 Is the Upside Gate
NVDA closed at 233.95, above the 20-day MA of 224 and the 20-week MA of 213. This week's implied range is 227–241, with a Gamma flip point at 227.6.
Call wall at 235, Put wall at 230. On Friday, sellers appeared with 3,134 contracts of the 232.5 Put, indicating capital is willing to take on risk near 232.5.
This week's watch: After breaking 235, watch 241; 227.6 is an important structural defense level.

MU | Entering a High-Volatility Validation Period Post-Earnings
MU's earnings clearly beat expectations, but next-quarter gross margin guidance was about 86.25%. Management expects this to be the FY2027 gross margin low, with gradual improvement thereafter.
MU's implied range this week is 1022–1128, with IV at 51.88% — but its IV historical position is only 0.4%. 1050 is the Put wall, 1100 is the Call wall.
This week's watch: 1100 is the bullish re-confirmation level, 1050 is important downside support.

TSM | AI Demand Still Strong, 480 Is the Breakout Level
TSM closed at 472.78, well above the 20-day MA of 441 and the 20-week MA of 427. This week's implied range is 458–487, with a Gamma flip point at 450.
Call wall at 480, Put wall at 460. Previously, buyers appeared with 10,000 contracts of the 460 Call, notional about $20.6 million, with the strike near the current price — a relatively strong directional bet.
This week's watch: Whether 480 can break will directly reflect the market's pricing of AI chip demand durability.

4. Institutional Block Trade Tracking

① Buy Side | SPY | 2026/12/18 770 Call$SPY 20261218 770.0 CALL$ 
26,500 contracts | ~$52.58 million notional | Current price 762.48
Large index Call, betting on SPY breaking above 770 before year-end.
What money is betting on: Medium-term index upside.
Key levels: 770 is the breakout level, 785 is the higher resistance.

② Buy Side | TSM | 2026/11/06 460 Call$TSM 20261106 460.0 CALL$ 
10,000 contracts | ~$20.6 million notional | Current price 459.79
Strike near the current price — a relatively strong directional Call buy.
What money is betting on: AI chip demand continuation.
Key levels: 460 support, 480 resistance.

③ Buy Side | NVDA | 2026/11/20 Call Roll
Closed 230/275 Calls, opened 245/295 Calls
Overall an upward Call roll — not withdrawing from longs, but moving the observation range higher.
What money is betting on: NVDA still has upside space.
Key levels: 245 is the new medium-term observation level, 295 is the upside target zone.

④ Buy Side | IWM | 2026/10/09 285 Call$IWM 20261009 285.0 CALL$ 
~48,600 contracts | ~$5.05 million notional | Current price ~279
Heavy short-dated Call buying, betting on small caps moving toward 285.
What money is betting on: IWM short-term rebound.
Key levels: 285; but with short expiry, time decay is very fast.

⑤ Buy Side | META | 2026/12/18 720 Put$META 20261218 720.0 PUT$ 
6,897 contracts | ~$33.85 million notional | Current price ~722
A large, near-at-the-money long-dated Put — one of the most obvious defensive trades this week.
What money is defending against: META medium-to-long-term pullback.
Key levels: Around 720.

⑥ Sell Side | XLF | 2026/11/20 52 Put$XLF 20261120 52.0 PUT$ 
45,500 contracts | ~$3.06 million notional | Current price 53.8
Heavy Put selling — capital is willing to take on assignment risk near 52.
What money is betting on: The financial ETF is unlikely to break below 52.
Key levels: 52 is the medium-term defense level.

⑦ Sell Side | QQQ | 2026/10/06 740 Put$QQQ 20261006 740.0 PUT$ 
8,886 contracts combined | ~$1.34 million notional | Current price ~749
Multiple concentrated sells of the 740 Put — a classic "won't fall" structure.
What money is betting on: QQQ maintains short-term strength.
Key levels: 740 is the short-term downside support zone.

⑧ Buy Side | TLT | 2026/12/18 79 Call$TLT 20261218 79.0 CALL$ 
10,000 contracts | $1.88 million notional | Current price 77.48
Buying Calls directly when long-bond prices are below 79, betting on future rate declines driving a TLT rebound.
What money is betting on: Long-bond rebound.
Key levels: First watch whether 78 can be reclaimed; 79 is the options breakout level.

One-Sentence Read
Block trades overall remain bullish-leaning: index, AI, and small caps all have long positioning; at the same time, META shows obvious long-term Put defense. Most notably, TLT is starting to see long-dated Call buying — if the nonfarm cooldown further translates into declining Treasury yields, it could become the second catalyst for tech stock valuation expansion in the next phase.

5. Weekly Strategy Outlook

Core Main Line: Earnings Season > Macro Data > AI Story
This week, it's no longer appropriate to judge the market simply by "will AI rise or not." What's more worth watching are three threads:

First, can earnings beat expectations?
If profits and guidance continue to be revised upward, QQQ's high-level crowding could gain fundamental support, and IWM could also benefit from earnings diffusion.

Second, can AI investment convert into profit?
MU has already given strong demand signals. Next, watch whether TSM, NVDA, and other AI supply chain names can continue to validate.

Third, will rates start to cooperate?
The nonfarm cooldown has notably reduced market concerns about an October rate hike. If long-end yields decline further, it could simultaneously support QQQ, IWM, and TLT.

The approach is to focus on QQQ and IWM's upside space while avoiding simply chasing downside protection. This also echoes current options block trades to some extent: the market has both index Calls and IWM Calls, as well as QQQ and NVDA Put selling — reflecting that capital's concerns about a short-term market decline haven't broadly escalated.

6. Risk Warnings

1. Rates remain the biggest macro variable: Although the nonfarm cooldown raised rate-cut expectations, long-end Treasury yields remain high. If yields rise again, high-valuation tech stocks could come under pressure.

2. The AI trade may continue to diverge: The AI main line hasn't disappeared, but the market is starting to demand that companies prove AI investment can bring revenue and profit.

3. Earnings volatility may amplify: High-volatility stocks like MU could see "earnings beat but stock doesn't rise" scenarios.

4. Short-term options time decay is fast: Especially near-month options on IWM, QQQ, and NVDA — even if the direction is right, insufficient time could cause losses.

5. Block trades don't necessarily mean bullish or bearish: Buying Puts could be hedging, selling Puts could be taking assignment or collecting premium — judgment requires combining expiry, strike, and underlying price.

6. The support, resistance, and Gamma levels in this article are for market observation and options knowledge learning only, and do not constitute investment advice.