Share your opinion about this -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

Lkm911
09-08 09:00

Share your opinion about this news…

Why did Nio, which had been profitable for three consecutive quarters, fall to a 52-week low?

第二天，港股蔚来跌超5%，报29.42港元；美股盘前一度下挫4.68%，股价摸到4.37美元，创下52周新低。一家连续三年被喊“要完”的公司，好不容易把账做正了，市场却用新低回应它。上半年归母亏损12.18亿元，同比收窄近九成。而现在，连续三个季度经调整盈利之后，蔚来自动从“叙事股”的考场，被移进了“制造业公司”的考场。二季度交付10.77万辆，同比增长49.4%。对比二季度的49.4%，增速一个季度掉了35个百分点。

Why did Nio, which had been profitable for three consecutive quarters, fall to a 52-week low?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":605356722766224,"tweetId":"605356722766224","gmtCreate":1788829251466,"gmtModify":1788829254453,"author":{"id":4099795485909660,"idStr":"4099795485909660","authorId":4099795485909660,"authorIdStr":"4099795485909660","name":"Lkm911","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.12.22","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Share your opinion about this news…</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Share your opinion about this news…</p></body></html>","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/605356722766224","repostId":2665339309,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2665339309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1788746865,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2665339309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-09-07 10:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Why did Nio, which had been profitable for three consecutive quarters, fall to a 52-week low?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2665339309","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"第二天，港股蔚来跌超5%，报29.42港元；美股盘前一度下挫4.68%，股价摸到4.37美元，创下52周新低。一家连续三年被喊“要完”的公司，好不容易把账做正了，市场却用新低回应它。上半年归母亏损12.18亿元，同比收窄近九成。而现在，连续三个季度经调整盈利之后，蔚来自动从“叙事股”的考场，被移进了“制造业公司”的考场。二季度交付10.77万辆，同比增长49.4%。对比二季度的49.4%，增速一个季度掉了35个百分点。","content":"<p><html><body>By Xie Pu | Notes</p><p>Companies that emerge from the ICU and companies that are considered good by the market are two different types of companies.</p><p>Revenue reached 32.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.1%; 107,700 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%; The gross profit margin of automobiles was 18.5%, a surge of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year; Adjusted net profit was 26.1 million yuan, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive results; With 56.7 billion yuan in cash on hand, operating cash flow has also turned positive—on the evening of September 1, 2026,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio</a>It delivered its most impressive financial report since its listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>PR was in a good mood and breathed a sigh of relief, but IR couldn't smile.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20260904/v2_2b9de01325db4905b12e9520f1f65aa7@12561242_oswg170272oswg1088oswg544_img_png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/interlace,1\" width=\"1088\"/></p><p>The following day, Hong Kong-listed Nio fell more than 5% to HK$29.42; U.S. stocks fell as much as 4.68% in pre-market trading, reaching $4.37, a 52-week low. The stock has fallen 33.6% over the past 52 weeks.</p><p>A company that had been called \"doomed\" for three consecutive years finally managed to put its accounts right, but the market responded with a new low. This doesn't make sense. Either the market is blind, or there's another account hidden in the financial statements.</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion: the market isn't blind; what's blind is the intuition that \"good performance means stock prices should rise.\"</p><p>01| The most beautiful account</p><p>Let's first highlight the positive aspects of this financial report.</p><p>Of the 32.137 billion yuan in revenue, automobile sales revenue reached 29.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.1%—this shows that the growth was not achieved by telling stories, but by actually selling cars.</p><p>For the first time, all three brands achieved sales growth: Nio delivered 60,945 vehicles, ranking first in the market priced above 350,000 yuan, including gasoline and electric vehicles. Ledao delivered 29,124 vehicles; 17,589 Fireflies were delivered. The quarterly figure of 107,700 vehicles was nearly 50% higher than the 72,000 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Gross profit is the strongest part of this financial report. The gross profit margin of automobiles was 18.5%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year compared to 10.3% a year ago. In the new energy industry, an 8 percentage point improvement in gross profit margin is equivalent to suddenly increasing the speed of a money printing press. The company reported a loss attributable to the parent company of 1.218 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of nearly 90% year-on-year. It's worth noting that Nio will still be losing 14.943 billion yuan in 2025.</p><p>During the earnings call, Li Bin made a bold statement: the goal is to deliver 110,000 vehicles in the third quarter. The guidance was also sufficient: 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles were delivered in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% to 27.5%; Revenue was between RMB 33.285 billion and RMB 34.051 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.7% to 56.2%. Cash reserves amounted to 56.7 billion yuan, and the balance sheet showed more than 5 billion yuan more cash than debt.</p><p>By the standards of any car company, this is a report card coming out of the ICU. Li Bin, who was called the \"worst person\" in 2019, spent seven years pulling the company back to a path of continuous profitability from the brink of layoffs.</p><p>Then, the stock price fell.</p><p>02| Two Accounts</p><p>What the market sees is another account hidden within the same data.</p><p>The first flaw lies in the word \"adjusted\".</p><p>Adjusted net profit of 26.1 million yuan-this is the headline number. However, turning to the GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) section, the net loss was 528 million yuan. There is a gap of 550 million yuan between the two figures, mainly because items such as equity incentives were \"adjusted\". This is not counterfeiting; it's industry practice, and Tesla and Li Auto both use this method. But when a company has been profitable on an \"adjusted\" basis for three consecutive quarters and still loses money on a GAAP basis, investors will naturally ask: Are those costs that have been eliminated really not worth paying?</p><p>The second flaw lies in its \"exceeding expectations\" quality.</p><p>Over the past four quarters, Nio’s quarterly beat (exceeded market expectations) – exceeding expectations by 15.9%, to 448.1% in the first profitable quarter, and then to 105.8% in the previous quarter. The numbers look spectacular, but what kind of expectations does beat have? It was Wall Street that, after suffering continuous losses, dropped its expectations to an extremely low level. EPS (earnings per share) shrank from $0.29 to $0.02, and the rolling twelve-month EPS remained at -$0.56.</p><p>To put it simply: the exam passing score dropped from 60 to 10, and students scored 15 points, exceeding expectations four times in a row—but the scores themselves are declining. Exceeding expectations due to low barriers to entry is not a compound profit growth, but a technical victory in expectation management.</p><p>The third flaw lies in the cost.</p><p>Bank of America Securities made the most direct comments after the earnings report: overall gross profit margin was slightly lower than the bank's forecast, and operating expenses accounted for 19.5% of sales, which was higher than expected. The money earned from selling a car is increasing, but the money burned by keeping this three-brand machine running is also more than the market expected.</p><p>The three flaws stacked together point to the same conclusion: the trend of a turnaround is real, but the quality of the turnaround is weak. The quarterly profit was 26.1 million yuan, corresponding to revenue of 32.1 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 0.08%. This isn't about making money; this is a critical state where you won't lose money.</p><p>03 | Change exam papers</p><p>If the profitability is merely thin, the explanatory power is insufficient—after all, stories of turnarounds never require making a lot of money on the first day. What really caused the stock price to fall was that the market quietly changed the test for Nio.</p><p>In the past, Nio was a narrative stock. Its valuation never takes into account the immediate situation: the imagination of battery swapping networks, the beliefs of user companies, the business model of BaaS battery leasing, and Tesla's benchmark status—these things cannot be priced using P/E, so the market simply does not use P/E and instead uses the \"ceiling of the story\" to price. In early 2021, Nio' stock price surged to a high of $67, not because of profits—it lost more than $4 billion that year—but because the market believed that this story would come true in the future.</p><p>The pricing logic of narrative stocks is: you can lose money, but you must always be on a steep slope of \"getting better\". The market is buying the second derivative, which is acceleration.</p><p>Now, after three consecutive quarters of adjusted profits, Nio has automatically been moved from the examination room of \"narrative stocks\" to the examination room of \"manufacturing companies\". The test questions for manufacturing are completely different: look at cash flow rather than the story, look at profit quality rather than growth rate, and look at the gross profit per bike rather than sentiment.</p><p>Most critically, there is no \"expected\" protection in the manufacturing examination room—the 26.1 million profit is a \"historic breakthrough from 0 to 1\" in the narrative examination room, but it is just an \"ordinary parts factory with a profit margin of 0.08%\" in the manufacturing examination room.</p><p>The process of institutions voting with their feet is the process of changing examination rooms. The day after the earnings report, Bank of America lowered its sales forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 8%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, cut its non-GAAP net profit forecasts by 52%, 54%, and 27%, respectively, and lowered its target price for Hong Kong stocks from HK$47 to HK$40. CICC is even more aggressive: it has cut its 2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast from HK$3.7 billion to HK$750 million, a reduction of nearly 80%, and lowered its Hong Kong stock target price by 22% to HK$48. One company gave it a \"neutral\" rating, while the other maintained it as \"outperforming the industry,\" but their actions were consistent: the story is over, now it's time to settle the score.</p><p>This isn't Wall Street being ruthless. This is standard Wall Street procedure: when you make a wish, I dream with you; when you fulfill your wish, I begin to inspect it. Tesla's first quarterly profit in 2019 and its first full-year profit in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Tesla had also gone through this process—the difference was that its gross profit margin was still rising steeply at the time, and it successfully passed the acceptance inspection.</p><p>The timing of NIO's acceptance coincided with the slope flattening.</p><p>04| Slope flattening</p><p>What really kept the bulls awake in the financial reports wasn't the thin profit margins, but the growth cliff in the guidance.</p><p>107,700 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. What is the guidance for the third quarter? 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles. Let's divide: the month-on-month ratio has remained almost stagnant. The year-on-year growth rate plummeted from 49% to a range of 24% to 27.5%—a cut in half.</p><p>Earlier signals were already written in the August delivery report: 35,836 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. Compared to 49.4% in the second quarter, the growth rate dropped by 35 percentage points in one quarter. Although 262,900 units will be delivered in 2026, with total historical deliveries exceeding 1.26 million units, market pricing has always only looked at marginal changes and not at accumulated honors.</p><p>Revenue guidance also failed: approximately $5 billion in the third quarter, below Wall Street's expectation of $5.3 billion. Barron's magazine put it bluntly: rising costs, intensified competition, and reduced subsidies—three major mountains are weighing down the entire country.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01490\">car market</a>Nio found it difficult to cope.</p><p>The cost side is real. The financial report clearly indicates that upstream raw material prices are rising, and the cost per vehicle is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year—the gross profit margin of 18.5% for automobiles in the second quarter looks good, but it has already fallen by 30 basis points compared to the previous quarter. In other words, the quarter with the best gross profit margin may have passed, and the future is heading against the odds.</p><p>The competition is even fiercer on this side.</p><p>The sales structure of Nio is the key to understanding this game: on the high-end side, Nio relies heavily on the ES8 and ES9 among its 60,945 vehicles to support the market - the lack of new models in July and the poor sales of other models directly triggered the largest single-day drop in two months; On the volume side, the Ledao and Firefly combined for 47,000 units, squeezing into the most competitive price range in the Chinese auto market, between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan. Each unit had to be priced from...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">auspicious</a>XPeng snatched it from her mouth. The high-end market relies on two cars, while the high-volume market relies on meat grinders; neither side is easy.</p><p>The storyline of going to sea has also died down. The European market has basically stagnated, channel inventory has bottomed out, and regional sales have collapsed—the \"geographical diversification\" that was once talked about to investors has now become a chapter that no one wants to mention much in financial reports.</p><p>Putting these things together, the \"standing still\" guided by Q3 is not modesty, but live broadcast. Companies that originated from narrative stocks fear this moment the most: when the slope flattens, the valuation logic changes channels before the story can even end.</p><p>One analyst's comment is very insightful: cheap valuations in fragile earnings tend to stay cheap indefinitely.</p><p>05| New Exam Paper</p><p>Only by extending the timeline can we clearly see the location of this decline.</p><p>In 2019, Nio laid off employees, its stock price fell below $2, and Li Bin was called \"the worst person that year\". In April 2020, Hefei made a strategic investment of 7 billion yuan, pulling him back from the brink. In 2021, his stock price surged to $67, with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions, and everyone called him \"Brother Bin\"; This was followed by a long period of blood loss from 2022 to 2024, with a total loss of 14.943 billion yuan in 2025, and a cumulative loss of more than 130 billion yuan since its listing—enough money to replace every Nio on sale in China with a new one and still have a surplus. By 2026, adjusted profits will be achieved for three consecutive quarters, with 56.7 billion yuan in cash on hand.</p><p>Seven years, 130 billion yuan, in exchange for \"no losses at the critical point\". Should this achievement be celebrated? That. Should it be priced as a reversal? But the market says: Don't rush.</p><p>Because the real test point of this question has never been a single company in Nio. China's emerging electric vehicle manufacturers have collectively reached the same threshold: the era of storytelling is over, and the era of handing in homework has begun. Nio is just the first company to achieve consecutive profitability and the first to encounter a \"new test\". After that, every car company that climbs out of the quagmire of losses will be asked the same questions—can profits be compounded, can the slope be continued, and can the 130 billion yuan in tuition fees be recouped?</p><p>In 2019, the market sentenced Li Bin to death with the narrative of $2, and it was Hefei's 7 billion yuan investment that overturned the verdict. In 2026, the market hit a 52-week low to sentence this most beautiful earnings report to a crime that wasn't a death sentence—the crime was \"insufficient evidence\": proving that you survived, but not that you could continue to win.</p><p>For Li Bin, this might not be bad news. The old exam paper tells a good story about whose story it tests, while the new exam paper tells a clear account of whose account it tests. It's better for a car company to be held to the standards of car manufacturing than to be hyped up as a concept stock.</p><p>After all, being inspected is waking up from a dream; Dreaming all the time is the real danger.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why did Nio, which had been profitable for three consecutive quarters, fall to a 52-week low?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy did Nio, which had been profitable for three consecutive quarters, fall to a 52-week low?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">蓝鲸财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-09-07 10:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>By Xie Pu | Notes</p><p>Companies that emerge from the ICU and companies that are considered good by the market are two different types of companies.</p><p>Revenue reached 32.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.1%; 107,700 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%; The gross profit margin of automobiles was 18.5%, a surge of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year; Adjusted net profit was 26.1 million yuan, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive results; With 56.7 billion yuan in cash on hand, operating cash flow has also turned positive—on the evening of September 1, 2026,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio</a>It delivered its most impressive financial report since its listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>PR was in a good mood and breathed a sigh of relief, but IR couldn't smile.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/hsossms/20260904/v2_2b9de01325db4905b12e9520f1f65aa7@12561242_oswg170272oswg1088oswg544_img_png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/interlace,1\" width=\"1088\"/></p><p>The following day, Hong Kong-listed Nio fell more than 5% to HK$29.42; U.S. stocks fell as much as 4.68% in pre-market trading, reaching $4.37, a 52-week low. The stock has fallen 33.6% over the past 52 weeks.</p><p>A company that had been called \"doomed\" for three consecutive years finally managed to put its accounts right, but the market responded with a new low. This doesn't make sense. Either the market is blind, or there's another account hidden in the financial statements.</p><p>Let's start with the conclusion: the market isn't blind; what's blind is the intuition that \"good performance means stock prices should rise.\"</p><p>01| The most beautiful account</p><p>Let's first highlight the positive aspects of this financial report.</p><p>Of the 32.137 billion yuan in revenue, automobile sales revenue reached 29.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.1%—this shows that the growth was not achieved by telling stories, but by actually selling cars.</p><p>For the first time, all three brands achieved sales growth: Nio delivered 60,945 vehicles, ranking first in the market priced above 350,000 yuan, including gasoline and electric vehicles. Ledao delivered 29,124 vehicles; 17,589 Fireflies were delivered. The quarterly figure of 107,700 vehicles was nearly 50% higher than the 72,000 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Gross profit is the strongest part of this financial report. The gross profit margin of automobiles was 18.5%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year compared to 10.3% a year ago. In the new energy industry, an 8 percentage point improvement in gross profit margin is equivalent to suddenly increasing the speed of a money printing press. The company reported a loss attributable to the parent company of 1.218 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of nearly 90% year-on-year. It's worth noting that Nio will still be losing 14.943 billion yuan in 2025.</p><p>During the earnings call, Li Bin made a bold statement: the goal is to deliver 110,000 vehicles in the third quarter. The guidance was also sufficient: 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles were delivered in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% to 27.5%; Revenue was between RMB 33.285 billion and RMB 34.051 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.7% to 56.2%. Cash reserves amounted to 56.7 billion yuan, and the balance sheet showed more than 5 billion yuan more cash than debt.</p><p>By the standards of any car company, this is a report card coming out of the ICU. Li Bin, who was called the \"worst person\" in 2019, spent seven years pulling the company back to a path of continuous profitability from the brink of layoffs.</p><p>Then, the stock price fell.</p><p>02| Two Accounts</p><p>What the market sees is another account hidden within the same data.</p><p>The first flaw lies in the word \"adjusted\".</p><p>Adjusted net profit of 26.1 million yuan-this is the headline number. However, turning to the GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) section, the net loss was 528 million yuan. There is a gap of 550 million yuan between the two figures, mainly because items such as equity incentives were \"adjusted\". This is not counterfeiting; it's industry practice, and Tesla and Li Auto both use this method. But when a company has been profitable on an \"adjusted\" basis for three consecutive quarters and still loses money on a GAAP basis, investors will naturally ask: Are those costs that have been eliminated really not worth paying?</p><p>The second flaw lies in its \"exceeding expectations\" quality.</p><p>Over the past four quarters, Nio’s quarterly beat (exceeded market expectations) – exceeding expectations by 15.9%, to 448.1% in the first profitable quarter, and then to 105.8% in the previous quarter. The numbers look spectacular, but what kind of expectations does beat have? It was Wall Street that, after suffering continuous losses, dropped its expectations to an extremely low level. EPS (earnings per share) shrank from $0.29 to $0.02, and the rolling twelve-month EPS remained at -$0.56.</p><p>To put it simply: the exam passing score dropped from 60 to 10, and students scored 15 points, exceeding expectations four times in a row—but the scores themselves are declining. Exceeding expectations due to low barriers to entry is not a compound profit growth, but a technical victory in expectation management.</p><p>The third flaw lies in the cost.</p><p>Bank of America Securities made the most direct comments after the earnings report: overall gross profit margin was slightly lower than the bank's forecast, and operating expenses accounted for 19.5% of sales, which was higher than expected. The money earned from selling a car is increasing, but the money burned by keeping this three-brand machine running is also more than the market expected.</p><p>The three flaws stacked together point to the same conclusion: the trend of a turnaround is real, but the quality of the turnaround is weak. The quarterly profit was 26.1 million yuan, corresponding to revenue of 32.1 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 0.08%. This isn't about making money; this is a critical state where you won't lose money.</p><p>03 | Change exam papers</p><p>If the profitability is merely thin, the explanatory power is insufficient—after all, stories of turnarounds never require making a lot of money on the first day. What really caused the stock price to fall was that the market quietly changed the test for Nio.</p><p>In the past, Nio was a narrative stock. Its valuation never takes into account the immediate situation: the imagination of battery swapping networks, the beliefs of user companies, the business model of BaaS battery leasing, and Tesla's benchmark status—these things cannot be priced using P/E, so the market simply does not use P/E and instead uses the \"ceiling of the story\" to price. In early 2021, Nio' stock price surged to a high of $67, not because of profits—it lost more than $4 billion that year—but because the market believed that this story would come true in the future.</p><p>The pricing logic of narrative stocks is: you can lose money, but you must always be on a steep slope of \"getting better\". The market is buying the second derivative, which is acceleration.</p><p>Now, after three consecutive quarters of adjusted profits, Nio has automatically been moved from the examination room of \"narrative stocks\" to the examination room of \"manufacturing companies\". The test questions for manufacturing are completely different: look at cash flow rather than the story, look at profit quality rather than growth rate, and look at the gross profit per bike rather than sentiment.</p><p>Most critically, there is no \"expected\" protection in the manufacturing examination room—the 26.1 million profit is a \"historic breakthrough from 0 to 1\" in the narrative examination room, but it is just an \"ordinary parts factory with a profit margin of 0.08%\" in the manufacturing examination room.</p><p>The process of institutions voting with their feet is the process of changing examination rooms. The day after the earnings report, Bank of America lowered its sales forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 8%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, cut its non-GAAP net profit forecasts by 52%, 54%, and 27%, respectively, and lowered its target price for Hong Kong stocks from HK$47 to HK$40. CICC is even more aggressive: it has cut its 2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast from HK$3.7 billion to HK$750 million, a reduction of nearly 80%, and lowered its Hong Kong stock target price by 22% to HK$48. One company gave it a \"neutral\" rating, while the other maintained it as \"outperforming the industry,\" but their actions were consistent: the story is over, now it's time to settle the score.</p><p>This isn't Wall Street being ruthless. This is standard Wall Street procedure: when you make a wish, I dream with you; when you fulfill your wish, I begin to inspect it. Tesla's first quarterly profit in 2019 and its first full-year profit in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Tesla had also gone through this process—the difference was that its gross profit margin was still rising steeply at the time, and it successfully passed the acceptance inspection.</p><p>The timing of NIO's acceptance coincided with the slope flattening.</p><p>04| Slope flattening</p><p>What really kept the bulls awake in the financial reports wasn't the thin profit margins, but the growth cliff in the guidance.</p><p>107,700 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. What is the guidance for the third quarter? 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles. Let's divide: the month-on-month ratio has remained almost stagnant. The year-on-year growth rate plummeted from 49% to a range of 24% to 27.5%—a cut in half.</p><p>Earlier signals were already written in the August delivery report: 35,836 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. Compared to 49.4% in the second quarter, the growth rate dropped by 35 percentage points in one quarter. Although 262,900 units will be delivered in 2026, with total historical deliveries exceeding 1.26 million units, market pricing has always only looked at marginal changes and not at accumulated honors.</p><p>Revenue guidance also failed: approximately $5 billion in the third quarter, below Wall Street's expectation of $5.3 billion. Barron's magazine put it bluntly: rising costs, intensified competition, and reduced subsidies—three major mountains are weighing down the entire country.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01490\">car market</a>Nio found it difficult to cope.</p><p>The cost side is real. The financial report clearly indicates that upstream raw material prices are rising, and the cost per vehicle is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year—the gross profit margin of 18.5% for automobiles in the second quarter looks good, but it has already fallen by 30 basis points compared to the previous quarter. In other words, the quarter with the best gross profit margin may have passed, and the future is heading against the odds.</p><p>The competition is even fiercer on this side.</p><p>The sales structure of Nio is the key to understanding this game: on the high-end side, Nio relies heavily on the ES8 and ES9 among its 60,945 vehicles to support the market - the lack of new models in July and the poor sales of other models directly triggered the largest single-day drop in two months; On the volume side, the Ledao and Firefly combined for 47,000 units, squeezing into the most competitive price range in the Chinese auto market, between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan. Each unit had to be priced from...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">auspicious</a>XPeng snatched it from her mouth. The high-end market relies on two cars, while the high-volume market relies on meat grinders; neither side is easy.</p><p>The storyline of going to sea has also died down. The European market has basically stagnated, channel inventory has bottomed out, and regional sales have collapsed—the \"geographical diversification\" that was once talked about to investors has now become a chapter that no one wants to mention much in financial reports.</p><p>Putting these things together, the \"standing still\" guided by Q3 is not modesty, but live broadcast. Companies that originated from narrative stocks fear this moment the most: when the slope flattens, the valuation logic changes channels before the story can even end.</p><p>One analyst's comment is very insightful: cheap valuations in fragile earnings tend to stay cheap indefinitely.</p><p>05| New Exam Paper</p><p>Only by extending the timeline can we clearly see the location of this decline.</p><p>In 2019, Nio laid off employees, its stock price fell below $2, and Li Bin was called \"the worst person that year\". In April 2020, Hefei made a strategic investment of 7 billion yuan, pulling him back from the brink. In 2021, his stock price surged to $67, with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions, and everyone called him \"Brother Bin\"; This was followed by a long period of blood loss from 2022 to 2024, with a total loss of 14.943 billion yuan in 2025, and a cumulative loss of more than 130 billion yuan since its listing—enough money to replace every Nio on sale in China with a new one and still have a surplus. By 2026, adjusted profits will be achieved for three consecutive quarters, with 56.7 billion yuan in cash on hand.</p><p>Seven years, 130 billion yuan, in exchange for \"no losses at the critical point\". Should this achievement be celebrated? That. Should it be priced as a reversal? But the market says: Don't rush.</p><p>Because the real test point of this question has never been a single company in Nio. China's emerging electric vehicle manufacturers have collectively reached the same threshold: the era of storytelling is over, and the era of handing in homework has begun. Nio is just the first company to achieve consecutive profitability and the first to encounter a \"new test\". After that, every car company that climbs out of the quagmire of losses will be asked the same questions—can profits be compounded, can the slope be continued, and can the 130 billion yuan in tuition fees be recouped?</p><p>In 2019, the market sentenced Li Bin to death with the narrative of $2, and it was Hefei's 7 billion yuan investment that overturned the verdict. In 2026, the market hit a 52-week low to sentence this most beautiful earnings report to a crime that wasn't a death sentence—the crime was \"insufficient evidence\": proving that you survived, but not that you could continue to win.</p><p>For Li Bin, this might not be bad news. The old exam paper tells a good story about whose story it tests, while the new exam paper tells a clear account of whose account it tests. It's better for a car company to be held to the standards of car manufacturing than to be hyped up as a concept stock.</p><p>After all, being inspected is waking up from a dream; Dreaming all the time is the real danger.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1788491751362904411\">蓝鲸财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIOG":"2倍做多NIO ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1788491751362904411","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2665339309","content_text":"文｜谢璞笔记从ICU走出来的公司，和市场眼里的好公司，是两种公司。营收321.37亿元，同比增长69.1%；交付10.77万辆，同比增长49.4%；汽车毛利率18.5%，同比暴涨8.2个百分点；经调整净利润2610万元，连续第三个季度为正；账上趴着567亿元现金，经营现金流也转正了——2026年9月1日晚，蔚来交出了上市以来最漂亮的一份财报。蔚来PR心情尚可，长舒一口气，IR却笑不起来。第二天，港股蔚来跌超5%，报29.42港元；美股盘前一度下挫4.68%，股价摸到4.37美元，创下52周新低。过去52周，这只股票已经跌了33.6%。一家连续三年被喊“要完”的公司，好不容易把账做正了，市场却用新低回应它。这不合常理。要么市场瞎了，要么财报里藏着另一本账。先说结论：市场没瞎，瞎的是“业绩好股价就该涨”这个直觉。01｜ 最漂亮的账我们先把这份财报的好，说足。321.37亿元营收里，汽车销售收入290.58亿元，同比大增80.1%——这说明增长不是靠讲故事凑的，是实打实卖车卖出来的。三个品牌第一次齐刷刷放量：蔚来品牌交付60945辆，在35万元以上市场把油车电车一起算上排到了第一；乐道交付29124辆；萤火虫交付17589辆。10.77万辆的单季成绩，比去年同期的7.2万辆多出近五成。毛利是这份财报最硬的部分。汽车毛利率18.5%，同比提升8.2个百分点——一年前这个数字还是10.3%，在新能源行业里，8个点的毛利率改善相当于凭空多出一台印钞机的转速。上半年归母亏损12.18亿元，同比收窄近九成。要知道2025年全年，蔚来还亏着149.43亿元。财报电话会上，李斌放了狠话：三季度交付冲刺11万辆。指引也跟着给足：Q3交付10.8万到11.1万辆，同比增长24%到27.5%；营收332.85亿到340.51亿元，同比增长52.7%到56.2%。现金储备567亿元，负债表上现金比债务还多出50多亿元。按任何一家车企的标准，这都是一份从ICU病房走出来的成绩单。2019年被称作“最惨的人”的李斌，用了七年时间，把公司从裁员的悬崖边拉回了连续盈利的轨道。然后，股价跌了。02｜ 两本账市场看到的，是同一份数据里藏着的另一本账。第一处破绽，在“经调整”三个字上。经调整净利润2610万元——这是头条数字。但翻到GAAP（通用会计准则）那一栏，净亏损5.28亿元。两个数字之间隔着5.5亿元，主要是股权激励等科目被“调整”掉了。这不是造假，是行业惯例，特斯拉、理想都用这套口径。但当一家公司连续三个季度靠“经调整”口径盈利、GAAP口径依然亏损时，投资者自然会问：剔除掉的那些成本，是真不用付的吗？第二处破绽，在“超预期”的含金量上。过去四个季度，蔚来季季beat（超出市场预期）——超预期幅度从15.9%，到首次盈利季度的448.1%，再到上个季度的105.8%。数字看着壮观，但beat的是什么样的预期？是华尔街在连续亏损后，把预期砸到极低的位置。EPS（每股收益）从0.29美元一路缩水到0.02美元，滚动十二个月的EPS依然是-0.56美元。用大白话说：考试从60分及格线降到10分及格线，学生考了15分，连着四次“超预期及格”——但分数本身在往下走。低门槛上的超预期，不是利润的复利式增长，是预期管理的技术性胜利。第三处破绽，在费用上。美银证券在财报后点得最直接：整体毛利率略低于该行预测，营运支出占销售额比率19.5%，高于预期。卖一辆车赚的钱在变多，但维持这台三品牌机器运转烧掉的钱，比市场预想的也多。三处破绽叠在一起，指向同一个结论：翻身的趋势是真的，但翻身的成色是薄的。2610万元的季度利润，对应321亿元的营收，利润率0.08%。这不是赚钱，这是不亏钱的临界状态。03｜ 换考卷如果只是盈利成色薄，解释力还不够——毕竟困境反转的故事，从来不要求第一天就赚大钱。真正让股价下跌的，是市场悄悄给蔚来换了考卷。过去的蔚来，是一只叙事股。它的估值从来不算眼前的账：换电网络的想象力、用户企业的信仰、BaaS电池租赁的商业模式、中国特斯拉的对标身份——这些东西没法用市盈率定价，市场就干脆不用市盈率，改用“故事的天花板”定价。2021年初，蔚来股价冲上67美元高点，靠的不是盈利——那年它亏了40多亿——靠的是市场相信这张故事会在未来兑现。叙事股的定价逻辑是：你可以亏损，但你必须一直在“变得更好”的陡峭斜率上。市场买的是二阶导数，是加速度。而现在，连续三个季度经调整盈利之后，蔚来自动从“叙事股”的考场，被移进了“制造业公司”的考场。制造业的考题完全不同：不看故事看现金流，不看增速看利润质量，不看情怀看单车毛利。最要命的是，制造业考场里没有“预期”的庇护——2610万利润在叙事考场里是“从0到1的历史性突破”，在制造业考场里只是“利润率0.08%的普通零件厂”。机构用脚投票的过程，就是换考场的过程。财报次日，美银把2026到2028年的销量预测下调8%、12%、10%，非通用会计准则净利润预测直接砍掉52%、54%、27%，港股目标价从47港元降到40港元。中金更狠：把2026年non-GAAP净利润预测从37亿元砍到7.5亿元，砍掉近八成，港股目标价下调22%至48港元。两家一家给“中性”、一家维持“跑赢行业”，但动作一致：故事讲完了，现在算账。这不是华尔街翻脸无情。这是华尔街的标准流程：你许愿的时候我陪你做梦，你还愿的时候我开始验收。特斯拉2019年第一次季度盈利、2020年第一次全年盈利时也经历过这道工序——区别是特斯拉当时的毛利率斜率还在陡峭上扬，验收顺利过关。而蔚来验收的时点，恰好撞上了斜率变平。04｜ 斜率变平财报里真正让多头睡不着觉的，不是利润薄，是指引里那道增速的悬崖。二季度交付10.77万辆，同比增长49.4%。三季度指引是多少？10.8万到11.1万辆。做个除法：环比几乎原地踏步。同比增速从49%骤降到24%到27.5%的区间——砍一半。更早的信号已经写在8月的交付快报里：35836台，同比增长14.5%。对比二季度的49.4%，增速一个季度掉了35个百分点。虽然2026年累计交付26.29万台、历史总交付突破126万台，但市场定价从来只看边际变化，不看累计荣誉。营收指引同样不及格：三季度约50亿美元，低于华尔街预期的53亿美元。《巴伦》周刊把话说得很难听：成本上涨、竞争加剧、补贴退坡，三座大山压着整个中国车市，蔚来难以招架。成本这头是真的。财报明确提示上游原材料涨价，下半年单车成本预计继续抬升——二季度汽车毛利率18.5%看着漂亮，环比已经回落了30个基点。也就是说，毛利率最漂亮的一个季度可能已经过去了，往后是逆风局。竞争这头更凶。蔚来的销量结构，是理解这盘棋的钥匙：高端那头，蔚来品牌60945辆里高度依赖ES8、ES9两款车撑场——7月新车型青黄不接，其他车型卖不动，直接引发了一次两个月内最大的单日跌幅；走量那头，乐道和萤火虫合计4.7万辆，恰好挤在10万到20万元这个中国车市竞争最惨烈的价格带，每一辆都要从比亚迪、吉利、小鹏的嘴里抢。高端靠两款车，走量靠绞肉机，两头都不轻松。出海这条故事线也熄了火。欧洲市场基本停滞，渠道库存见底，区域销量坍缩——曾经讲给投资人听的“地理多元化”，如今成了财报里没人愿意多提的章节。把这些拼起来，Q3指引的“原地踏步”就不是谦虚，是实况转播。而叙事股出身的公司最怕的就是这一刻：当斜率变平，故事还没来得及收尾，估值逻辑就先换了频道。有分析师的评语写得很透：脆弱盈利上的便宜估值，往往会一直便宜下去。05｜ 新考卷把时间线拉长，才能看清这次下跌的位置。2019年，蔚来裁员、股价跌破2美元、李斌被称作“那一年最惨的人”；2020年4月，合肥70亿元战略投资进场，把他从悬崖边拽了回来；2021年，股价冲上67美元，市值千亿，人人喊他“斌哥”；随后是2022到2024年的漫长失血，2025年全年亏掉149.43亿，上市以来累计亏损超过1300亿元——这笔钱够把中国每辆在售的蔚来车主换成新买一遍还有富余。到2026年，连续三个季度经调整盈利，567亿现金在手。七年，1300亿，换来一个“临界点上的不亏损”。这个成绩该不该被庆祝？该。该不该被定价为反转？但市场说：先别急。因为这道题的真正考点，从来不是蔚来一家公司。中国造车新势力集体走到了同一道门槛前：讲故事的时代结束了，交作业的时代开始了。蔚来只是第一个连续盈利、也第一个撞上“新考卷”的样本。它之后，每一家从亏损泥潭里爬出来的车企，都会被问同样的问题——利润能不能复利，斜率能不能续上，1300亿的学费能不能挣回来。2019年，市场曾经用2美元给李斌的叙事判了死刑，是合肥的70亿推翻了判决。2026年，市场用52周新低给这份最漂亮的财报判了个不算死刑的罪——罪名是“证据不足”：证明你活下来了，但没证明你能持续地赢。对李斌来说，这或许不算坏消息。旧考卷考的是谁的故事讲得好，新考卷考的是谁的账算得清。一家车企被人用造车的标准来要求，总好过被当成一只概念股来炒作。毕竟，被验收，是从梦里醒来；一直做梦，才是真的危险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1.98,"NIOG":0.6,"09866":1.98,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO.SI":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}