I’m leaning toward a genuine memory supercycle, but I wouldn’t chase the rally blindly. The biggest difference this time is AI: HBM, DRAM and NAND demand is increasingly tied to data-center expansion rather than the traditional PC and smartphone cycle. At the same time, supply cannot respond quickly, as new fabs, advanced nodes and capacity expansion require years of investment.

SK hynix’s ₩40T buyback and Samsung’s ₩90–110T shareholder-return plan are also significant. They suggest these companies are generating enormous cash and are increasingly willing to share the AI windfall with investors.

However, the biggest risk is still AI capex. If hyperscalers slow spending or memory prices peak, earnings expectations could change rapidly. For now, I remain bullish, but I’d watch memory pricing, inventories and AI spending more closely than headline buybacks.

@WallStreet_Tiger [贱笑]

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