[STRATEGY] Breakouts vs. Retests: How to Stop Getting Trapped by Fakeouts
Picture this scenario: You’ve been watching a stock or crypto token test a key resistance level for hours. Suddenly, a massive green candle breaks above the line. You jump in with a Market Buy order out of fear of missing the move (FOMO).
Five minutes later, price violently reverses, dumps right back below the level, and hits your stop-loss.
Congratulations, you just got caught in a Fakeout. Here is how professional traders avoid this trap using the Breakout & Retest method.
The Rookie Mistake: Chasing the Initial Break
When a key level breaks, retail traders rush in blindly. Institutional traders and market makers know this, so they often push price just high enough to trigger buy orders before dumping their positions into the buying pressure. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$
To protect yourself, you need to remember Role Reversal:
Once Resistance is broken, it must be tested to prove it has turned into new Support.
The 3-Step "Break & Retest" Setup
Instead of buying the instant price crosses a line, wait for the market to complete these three distinct phases:
Step 1: The Breakout
Price aggressively breaks through a key resistance level with high volume. Action: Do nothing yet! Just add it to your watchlist.
Step 2: The Retest (Patience Phase)
After the initial surge, price pulls back to "retest" the old resistance line it just broke through.
Step 3: The Confirmation (Entry Phase)
Wait for price to hit the old resistance level and form a bullish confirmation candle (like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing candle) showing that buyers are actively defending the level. Action: Enter your long trade here!
Raw Breakout vs. Retest Entry $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
The Golden Rule: Not Every Breakout Retests
Sometimes a breakout is so strong that price flies straight to the moon without ever coming back to retest the level.
That is 100% fine.
Let those trades go. It is far better to miss out on a move occasionally than to constantly lose capital by chasing fakeouts. There will always be another trade setup tomorrow.
Discussion Question: What percentage of your trades do you take on raw breakouts versus waiting for a confirmed retest? Let's see how everyone approaches entries!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- 胡貿昌·08-21 13:08TOPA few people in my trading group keep mentioning @Owen Moshe . I'm honestly tired of trying to navigate this macro environment on my own. What's the best way to follow his daily market analysis?LikeReport
- Yu Jie Niu·08-21 13:09The more I learn from Owen Moshey, the more I realize that good trading isn’t about being right all the time. It’s about having a defined process before entering, knowing your risk, understanding why you’re entering, and being disciplined enough to exit when the thesis changes.LikeReport
- Zi Hsu·08-21 13:09Going into 2027, one of the biggest things Owen Moshey’s teaching has changed for me is how I think about entries. I used to ask, “Is this stock going up?” Now I’m asking where the liquidity is, what the market structure is saying, where institutions may be positioned, and what would invalidate my trade.LikeReport
- Jia Li Lo·08-21 13:10Is there a place where Owen Moshey posts his daily charts or market outlook? I'd like to check out his analysis.LikeReport
- cheezzy·08-21 10:42Retest entries are cleaner on QQQ and SPY, but MSTR can rip so hard the pullback never comes lolLikeReport
- sjlangford·08-21 13:42Great article, would you like to share it?LikeReport
