To The Moon

One-sentence theme: A massive rotation is underway — gold at 4,500, crude oil +3%, bitcoin short-squeeze rally (hard assets rampage), while U.S. stocks continue to pull back. Fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and risk appetite has shifted toward physical assets.

I. Sentiment Focus: Hard Assets Surging Across the Board

1. Gold breaks above 4,500: The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-end repurchase scale (injecting liquidity) → gold surged to 4,500. However, pre-market Thursday saw the 30-year Treasury yield rebound sharply, returning to pre-announcement levels → fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and U.S. equities continued their pullback.

2. Crude oil +3%, maintaining strong upward momentum.

3. Bitcoin short squeeze! Surged to 72,000, with $2.7 billion in short positions liquidated — the largest short-squeeze day in nearly two years ⚠️. After the squeeze subsides, if it stabilizes, Sell Put strategies could be considered (positioning on dips).

Today's landscape: Gold + crude oil + bitcoin (hard assets) are partying, while U.S. equities are retreating — a classic rotation "from risk assets into physical/safe-haven." Behind this is the macro tension of fiscal stimulus + elevated long-end rates.

II. Individual Stock Events

• MRNA +177%: Breakthrough Phase 3 success in personalized cancer vaccines developed with Merck (MRK) using AI. ⚠️ Fundamental positive, but options activity shows "profit-taking" → neither stock is suitable for chasing highs immediately.

• SPCX second lock-up expiry takes effect today (up to 319 million shares), with another 7% to be released on 9/9. Options indicate near-term pressure, with heavy selling of the 150 Call (capping upside) → lock-up overhang, don't chase.

• Alibaba FY27 Q1: Cloud +45% in line with expectations, but capex came in higher than expected, pre-market -5.5% (slightly above volatility expectations). As Asia's largest cloud provider, Sell Put positioning on dips could be considered.

III. Notable Block Trades

• IBIT: 9/25-expiry 39.5 $IBIT 20260925 39.5 CALL$ Buy Call, 40,000 contracts + 11/20-expiry 45$IBIT 20261120 45.0 CALL$ Buy Call, 32,000 contracts → bullish on Bitcoin ETF (targeting 40/45), aligning with the Bitcoin surge.

• GLD: 9/11 430$GLD 20260911 430.0 CALL$ Buy / 445$GLD 20260911 445.0 CALL$ Sell Call spread, 56,000 contracts each → Bull Call Spread, bullish on gold to 430+.

• CRWV: 10/16-expiry 70 $CRWV 20261016 70.0 PUT$Buy Put, 16,000 contracts → bearish on CRWV to below 70 (shorting compute/neocloud).

Summary: Bullish on Bitcoin + bullish on gold + bearish on compute stocks (CRWV) → big money clearly prefers hard assets and is bearish on AI compute.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact (capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing, but the AI atmosphere tends to heat up first).

2. Gold Sell Put: The increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

3. SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM). For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.