To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ produced record revenue and backlog in the second quarter, demonstrating that it has become much more than a small-rocket operator. Nevertheless, the market remains focused on Neutron, the reusable medium-lift rocket intended to move Rocket Lab into larger commercial and national-security missions.

Rocket Lab reported after the August 10 close for the quarter ended June 30. Revenue increased 62% year over year to $234.1 million, driven mainly by product revenue nearly doubling to $181.3 million. Backlog rose 137% to $2.36 billion, and the company guided for third-quarter revenue of $250–$265 million. Rocket Lab’s official second-quarter release provides the results, contract awards and forecast.

The bullish thesis is vertical integration. Rocket Lab builds launch vehicles, satellites and components, allowing it to compete for contracts requiring an entire system rather than one piece of hardware. It secured more than $437 million of launch contracts during the quarter and shortly afterward, while a Space Force programme potentially worth $397 million combines spacecraft with future Neutron launches.

Acquisitions of Mynaric and Motiv, plus the proposed acquisition of Iridium Communications, could add laser communications, satellite hardware and an operating communications network. If integration succeeds, Rocket Lab could design, manufacture, launch and operate space infrastructure.

The bearish issue is capital and schedule risk. Rocket Lab still reported an $0.08 quarterly loss per share and expects a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $17–$23 million. Management now targets delivering Neutron to its launch pad in the fourth quarter but acknowledged that the window for an inaugural 2026 flight is narrowing. Reuters’ August 10 report explains the change in emphasis from launch timing to pad readiness.

Rocket Lab closed regular trading down 3.3% at $80.04 after ranging from $72.82 to $86.71 on approximately 34 million shares, then weakened further after hours.

RKLB Weekly Chart

RKLB’s weekly chart remains constructive but highly volatile, with the stock having retraced sharply from the June peak near $145–$150 and recently finding support along the long-term rising trendline in the mid-$60s to low-$70s.

The rebound back toward $80 is encouraging, but that area is also an important former support/resistance pivot, so the chart still needs to prove that the latest bounce is more than a relief move; a sustained weekly hold above roughly $72–$75, followed by a reclaim of $80–$85, would strengthen the case for a recovery toward $95–$100, while a break back below the rising trendline near $65–$68 would materially weaken the setup.

For a trader willing to own RKLB at a lower effective cost, a 30–45 DTE cash-secured put around the $60–$65 strike, preferably near 0.10–0.20 delta, would be more attractive than selling puts close to the current price, because it places the strike beneath the trendline and recent swing lows while allowing the position to benefit from time decay and typically elevated volatility.

Because launch news can produce abrupt gaps, these levels are probabilistic rather than predictive. Given RKLB’s wide weekly ranges, I would only use this strategy if assignment at that strike is acceptable and would avoid adding new short puts if the stock loses the mid-$60s support area.

The operating evidence leans moderately bullish [Call], but the stock outlook is neutral because valuation and Neutron execution remain demanding. The view would be invalidated by backlog cancellations, continued Neutron delays, acquisition strain or losses increasing without corresponding revenue growth. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.