To The Moon

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge.

To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout.

In the spot market, the key resistance zone is 4,380–4,402, which also corresponds to the low reached during the correction in the first quarter of this year. A break above this area would represent a shift in market control from bears to bulls, potentially triggering further short covering and extending the rebound.

Since futures have already broken out, confirmation from spot gold could pave the way for a move toward 4,800. It is also worth noting that, historically, a wider premium between futures and spot prices has generally indicated stronger bullish momentum in gold.

Spot gold’s future performance may also offer clues through the gold-silver ratio. Simply put, if the ratio breaks above and holds above the previous high at 72.7, it would broadly suggest that gold still has at least 10% upside potential. Since late June, the ratio has been forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. Assuming 66 serves as neckline support, a break below that level would be relatively unfavorable for gold bulls.

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2612(MGCmain)$ $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $USD/XAU(USDXAU.FOREX)$ $Global X Silver Miners ETF(SIL)$ $ProShares UltraShort Euro(EUO)$ $EUROPEAN COBALT LTD(EUC.AU)$ $ETFS PRECIOUS METALS(AIGP.UK)$ $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$

Even if the rebound loses momentum, however, there is no need to be overly concerned about an immediate and sharp reversal in gold. A pullback toward 4,215 could provide a potential base for a “one step back, two steps forward” move. Overall, the rhythm may resemble that of crypto assets, although precious metals tend to lag behind.

Overall, my current assessment is that gold’s rebound is not yet over. In the worst-case scenario, gold may enter a period of range-bound consolidation rather than immediately ending the rebound and reversing lower. However, for the rally to make further progress, spot gold still needs to catch up with futures.

From a fundamental perspective, U.S. inflation—and the resulting changes in expectations surrounding interest-rate hikes and their timing—will be the key external drivers of gold prices in the near term. If inflation remains contained, and rate hikes are delayed or ultimately do not take place, that would be positive for gold.

However, if oil prices surge again and remain elevated, it may be difficult to prevent inflation from picking up. These developments are not expected to become clear until the fourth quarter, by which time gold’s rebound may already have run its course.

As for the situation involving Iran, unless it escalates into a major military confrontation, it is unlikely to have a decisive impact on gold at this stage. Moreover, the direction of the conflict—and its impact on markets—could potentially change depending on gold’s own price level. But that is a matter for later.

For the euro futures position previously entered at 1.1420, the stop-loss has now been raised to the entry level of 1.1420 following last week’s move. This locks in a risk-free position while keeping the original targets unchanged: 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half of the position allocated to each target.

For crude oil, we continue to hold the long position entered at an average price of 75. Although the previous rebound was strong, price did not reach the first target. We therefore continue to expect range-bound trading in the short term and will maintain the existing plan for now. The stop-loss is currently set at 60, with targets at 95 and 115, again allocating half of the position to each target. The stop-loss may be raised later.

$OPTISCAN IMAGING LIMITED(OIL.AU)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(MCLmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - Dec 2026(CL2612)$ $WTI Crude Oil - Sep 2026(CL2609)$

For gold, we will also place several pending orders this week:

• Buy limit: 4,085
  Stop-loss: 3,955
  Target: 4,475

• Sell limit: 4,760 and 5,170, with half of the position at each level
  Stop-loss: 5,275
  Target: 4,000

Both pending orders will remain valid until canceled.

P.S. If the first target is reached, the stop-loss will automatically be moved to the entry level. Any subsequent adjustments after execution will be provided in future articles.