$Oracle(ORCL)$  Looking at Oracle's credit default swap chart, it initially shot up and that sent the share price from the $340s down to the $130s. Then after February 2026 it dipped a bit, which took the price from the $130s to the $250s as the market read that as credit concerns fading. That small uptick since June, combined with the recent S&P credit downgrade, pushed the price from the $250s down to the $120s.

It's not like they're in some kind of crisis. What gets me is Oracle has full control over their business. All they have to do is accept slightly less business, digest through the debt they have, and that credit default concern goes down while the share price goes up. $400+.

That's why I'm not worried about this share price. They're already saying in recent earnings calls that they're expecting substantially less capital expenditure than the market is expecting, meaning the market is pricing in more debt risk.

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