$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  Tesla reports Q2 2026 earnings after the market closes today (July 22). While the headline EPS and revenue numbers matter, analysts agree that this is one of the most important “guidance” quarters in Tesla’s history. The market is increasingly valuing Tesla as an AI and robotics company rather than purely an EV manufacturer. 

Tesla already surprised the market with much stronger-than-expected deliveries of 480,126 vehicle. 

If margins come in above expectations, investors may conclude Tesla’s profitability has bottomed. Analysts expect automotive gross margin around 18%, slightly below last quarter. 

Some analysts expect Tesla to report its first quarterly negative free cash flow in more than two years because of record AI investment.

Investors will tolerate weak cash flow if Elon Musk convincingly explains where the money is going.

Tesla stock has a history of declining after earnings. I have already sold a covered call to take advantage of the high implied volatility of earnings to earn some premium. 

Do you think tsla stock will drop after earnings again or will this time be different?

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  • RandyHall
    ·07-22 19:02
    I rechecked Dojo scaling last night — market's still underpricing the AI spend. I think TSLA gaps up if margins clear 18%, you letting that covered call ride?
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