To The Moon

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ is broken and the AI CPU trade is over

At least that’s what the market is pricing after a 46% crash in three weeks. There’s just one problem: the chip everyone is selling hasn’t shipped a single unit yet.

453 to 243 in four weeks. Downgrades, valuation calls, ETF outflows, every bear argument hit at once. But look where the selling stopped:

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ is backtesting its breakout zone just above 189, the level that capped this stock for two years before the breakout. Price has held it so far.

Growth Catalyst

The core business is compounding while the new one loads.

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ closed FY26 with $4.92B in revenue, up 23%, its third straight year of 20%+ growth. This was capped by a record $1.49B quarter in May.

Data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year, and roughly half of all hyperscaler CPUs now run on Arm: Graviton, Axion, Cobalt, Grace, every one of them paying $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ a toll. Layer the AGI CPU on top, with first production revenue hitting in Q4 FY27 and a $15B long-term target, and the setup writes itself.

Two catalysts on deck:

$Intel(INTC)$ reports July 23 and $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ wins either way. Strong Intel means CPU demand is hot, weak Intel means the market share is already sitting in $ARM’s pocket. Then $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ prints July 29.

Trade Ideas

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ above 285

Day Trade: 7/24 300C

Swing Trade: 8/21 350C

When a stock retests the level that launched an explosive move, the bounce off it can be just as violent as the breakout. Most traders wait until buying feels comfortable again. By then the discount is gone. Pullbacks like this don’t come often.