$Oracle(ORCL)$ Oracle is trading at $121, which puts its market cap around $353 billion.
Larry Ellison's 1.158 billion shares are worth about $141 billion. Out of that, his 346 million pledged shares are valued at roughly $42 billion, which is being used to back a $43.3 billion personal guarantee for the Paramount/Warner Bros. deal.
Then there's the court delay, adding penalties of about $7 million per day—that's roughly $650 million per quarter—starting after September 30.
From where I stand, Oracle realistically needs to get back toward $160 to $175 to rebuild that financing cushion. If it doesn't, they risk losing the deal entirely and facing a massive penalty.
The margin for error looks almost gone at this point.
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