Here's a thought experiment on the longer term robotics TAM.
Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$.
Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take.
~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today).
There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040:
Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list):
1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B.
-> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ etc are already running pilots here.
-> Of the 12.8M humans, ~40% are in semi-automated roles today.
-> The other 60% are in materials handling, parts transfer, inspection etc...which will be jobs humanoids can do in a structured factory.
2040 estimate: ~30% penetration out of the 12.8M workers.
That's $222B in wage displacement.
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2. Warehousing & storage: 2M workers at avg wage of $42k -> total wage pool of $84B.
-> $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ already has 1M robots deployed across its network.
-> Inventory management & receiving and sorting is likely to be displaced sooner rather than later.
-> The jobs that require more dexterity... i.e. picking and packing is less so but 2040 is still a likely target.
2040 estimate: 40% penetration out of the 2M workers.
That's ~$33 billion in wage displacement.
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3. Healthcare: Takes into account surgery, healthcare, home health, backend operations etc.
-> $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ is already growing US robotic surgery procedures at 14% annually.
-> The lower hanging fruit here is like home health aides, nursing assistances, medication delivery, bed changes etc.
-> Penetration I do believe here will be lower. Lots of regulatory and liability barriers as well.
My estimates would put healthcare ~9% penetration across a $768 billion wage pool -> $72B.
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4. Drivers: ~3.5 million truck drivers in the US, 1 million taxi drivers, and ~1.5 million light delivery drivers -> total pool ~6 million workers.
-> Waymo $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is already running fully driverless commercial taxis in 10+ US cities.
-> $Aurora Innovation(AUR)$ in long-haul trucking (and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$).
-> And last mile delivery likely to be disrupted by drones.
Total wage pool would be ~$280B. 40% penetration by then seems on the conservative end.
$280B * 40% = $112B
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5. Cleaning/janitorial: ~3 million workers ~$40k -> total wage pool is $118 billion.
-> An underrated sector for disruption. We already have Avidbots, Karcher, Tennant etc deploying floor scrubbers in airports and hospitals today.
-> Economic case for disruption is very strong because the labour force is slim.
40% penetration of $118 billion -> $47 billion.
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That's ~$480 billion in wage displacement by 2040 (just in the top 5 sectors).
Fwiw, MS is expecting ~$360 billion by 2040 and $3T by 2050.
Whatever that final 2040 - 2050 number comes out to be...
I think we can be sure that we've got a long way to go from where we are today.
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