GOLD: This Correction Creates Opportunities for Medium- to Long-term Positioning
$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
On July 14, the U.S. CPI data for June—to be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT—will be the key factor in determining whether gold will stage a full reversal or accelerate its decline. The market widely expects that, due to a roughly 10% decline in U.S. gasoline prices in June, the year-over-year nominal CPI is projected to drop significantly from 4.2% to around 3.8%–3.9%; however, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to remain at a sticky level of 2.8%–2.9%.
Gold’s current consolidation near $4,000 represents merely a temporary correction driven by the unwinding of short-term speculative positions; the three long-term drivers—continued central bank gold purchases, global debt expansion, and reserve diversification—remain intact. The Federal Reserve’s verbally hawkish stance should not be overinterpreted; the long-term divergence within the global monetary system remains the core support for gold. Setting aside short-term price fluctuations, the underlying logic of gold’s long-term bull market has not fundamentally changed; this correction, in fact, creates opportunities for medium- to long-term positioning.
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