I think the market is sending a different message than most investors realize.
NVDA fell only 2.4% while many AI and semiconductor names dropped 7-10%. If institutions truly wanted out of AI, NVDA would likely be leading the decline. Instead, money seems to be rotating out of weaker AI names and into the strongest one.
To me, the key question is not whether AI spending slows. It's whether AI spending is shifting toward the winners.
What I'm watching:
✅ FOMC and dot plot tonight
✅ Hyperscaler AI capex (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google)
✅ Data center demand
✅ NVDA Blackwell adoption
Bull case:
- AI remains the dominant investment theme.
- Any pullback becomes a buying opportunity.
Bear case:
- Higher-for-longer rates compress valuations.
- Capital rotates into value stocks.
Personally, I'm holding quality AI names and avoiding leveraged ETFs like SOXL during FOMC week.
Question: If you could only own one for the next 3 years, would you choose NVDA, AVGO, AMD or MSFT?
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