An update on the optics supply chain.
The latest earnings calls are telling a very consistent story across the board - demand is still outrunning supply at nearly every major node.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ : effectively sold out, >30% of demand not being met, capacity locked via LTAs through 2027.
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ : scaling hard (100k → 930k units/month by 2027) yet still expects demand > supply into mid-2027.
$COHERENT(COHR)$ : bookings into 2028, doubling InP capacity twice in 18 months, calls out industry-wide bottlenecks.
$Ciena(CIEN)$ : backlog up to $7.7B (+$2.6B in 6 months).
$Cisco(CSCO)$ : hyperscaler AI orders revised from $5B → $9B mid-year.
Put it together, and the 800G / 1.6T cycle still looks structurally undersupplied (~27–30%).
If CPO slips to 2028, this entire stack effectively becomes the backbone of AI buildout for another 2 years.
Supply isn’t catching up anytime soon - it's already spoken for.
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