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Mikinyaa
06-10 15:09

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AI Super Bull Market Enters "SpaceX Moment"! Passive capital rocket fuel is ready to ignite, and AI computing power frenzy is far from ending

预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。

AI Super Bull Market Enters "SpaceX Moment"! Passive capital rocket fuel is ready to ignite, and AI computing power frenzy is far from ending

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Passive capital rocket fuel is ready to ignite, and AI computing power frenzy is far from ending","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642415418","media":"智通财经","summary":"预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recently, many financial market professional scholars and market observers have written that index tracking funds (i.e. index ETFs) are about to form billions of dollars of new demand for SpaceX stocks.<strong>This outlook may form a feedback loop, further pushing up the stock price and overall market cap of the American supergiant founded by Elon Musk, which focuses on \"space exploration + AI\".</strong>The investment and construction process of AI computing power-related infrastructure with an expected scale of up to USD 3 trillion is in full swing, and the prospect of billions of dollars of demand for SpaceX stocks from index tracking funds is superimposed. Therefore, in the eyes of some analysts who are bullish on the market outlook, for the \"AI super bull market\" sweeping the global stock market, the global bull market around AI may be far from over.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That is to say, after 15 days of public market trading, about 30% of SpaceX's free float shares will be held by passive investors focusing on index ETFs, which may continue to bring upward impetus to the stock price.<strong>SpaceX's record-breaking unprecedented IPO scale is no longer just a single financing event, but more like an extreme stress test of the ability to undertake funds under the background of the global \"AI super bull market\". In the eyes of some analysts, SpaceX may become a strong amplifier of the AI super bull market, not a bubble terminator.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On Tuesday, Eastern Time, some media reported that, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in investor subscription demand, far exceeding the $75 billion the company plans to raise, and is on track to become the largest initial public offering (or IPO) in history. If SpaceX's share price continues to rise due to index funds and scarce circulation, it may further attract more funds to chase, thus further strengthening the valuation expansion. Therefore, in the eyes of some Wall Street analysts who continue to be optimistic about the general trend of the global \"AI super bull market\" dominated by the AI computing power frenzy, the trajectory of the AI super bull market is far from over. SpaceX is more like the beneficiary and amplifier of the AI super bull market than the \"pumping\" terminator that the market panics</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The subscription scale of $250 billion itself shows that,<strong>At present, the global venture capital's pursuit of AI computing infrastructure, commercial aerospace and the next generation of space-focused AI infrastructure assets is far from cooling down. If the market is really on the verge of liquidity depletion, it is difficult to have nearly 4x oversubscription.</strong>Instead, it means that a lot of long-term money, sovereign funds, pensions, growth funds and active hedge fund money are actively looking for core assets that can carry the growth narrative of the next decade.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From the latest mainstream view on Wall Street, despite the recent inclusion of ARM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>SK Hynix and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The share price of AI computing power industry chain in the global stock market has been sharply corrected, but there is no pessimistic consensus on Wall Street that \"AI super bull market is over\". Instead, there is the opposite phenomenon: more and more large investment institutions are raising the target level of the benchmark stock index, and the reasons for the increase are almost all related to the wave of AI capital expenditure, the hot process of AI infrastructure construction and AI-driven profit expansion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street Merchant Banking Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The latest research report released shows that, driven by the bull market carnival of technology stocks dominated by the theme of AI computing power trading, the agency predicts that one of the benchmark stock indexes of U.S. stocks will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index may break through the seemingly unreachable epic barrier of 9,000 points in the next year, meaning that the benchmark stock index, which has soared by more than 60% since 2024, can still rise by more than 20%.<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is clearly pointed out that AI computing power-related infrastructure investment is supporting enterprise profitability and risk asset performance; At the same time, it is emphasized that the real risk comes from runaway inflation and rising financing costs, rather than AI-related demand recession or the pessimistic narrative of \"AI bubble burst\". Citi bucked the trend and raised the S&P 500 target for the year-end from 7,700 to 8,100, making it one of the investment banks with the highest target among mainstream Wall Street institutions</strong>。</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3837930952\">When Index Funds Meet SpaceX: Passive Investing Is Rewriting Price Discovery Mechanism by Hand</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nasdaq Inc., FTSE Russell, and MSCI Global Indexes Inc. (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSCI\">MSCI Inc</a>.) are now ready to quickly integrate the company into their respective benchmark indexing systems.<strong>About 30% of SpaceX's free float will be held by passive investors just 15 days after listing for trading, according to statistics from index rebalancing forecasting service Intropic. By contrast, under the previous slower index inclusion rules of these index providers, this proportion is only about 4%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Strong expectations of this mechanical demand alone are enough to create a significant upside driver for SpaceX shares, even before investment funds scramble for shares. Combined with the market bullish beliefs surrounding Musk himself and the market frenetic bullish sentiment surrounding SpaceX and artificial intelligence, the risk is that the index product itself may push the stock cost price it ultimately has to pay up.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf5e476702d8031dab002c2a7d093f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This also makes the heavy listing of this rocket manufacturer + artificial intelligence leader not only the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but also an important \"rational test\" to test the influence of passive investment funds on the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"One of the reasons every index provider has tried to include SpaceX in the benchmark index so quickly is that there is an implicit competitive relationship between the benchmark indexes,\" said Marco Sammon, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School who has long studied the impact of passive investing. \"This looks like an index compilation method, not a fundamental factor, but it may have a huge impact on prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest calculations of Bloomberg Intelligence, a research firm, passive investment vehicles currently account for about 60% of the assets of U.S. equity funds and control about one-fifth of the market value of the S&P 500 index. Therefore, professional scholars in financial markets have long been worried that indexed investment may distort trading behavior and market price formation mechanism.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sammon, from Harvard University, has previously demonstrated that,<strong>Upward price pressure from the inclusion of index constituents was effectively dampened due to widespread anticipation of the index inclusion event. A research report by Sammon shows that the core reason behind this is that professional traders in hedge funds and market makers tend to buy stocks in advance and gradually to lay out</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a working paper he co-wrote with John Shim and Stefano Pegoraro, they found that these intermediaries would build positions before the index fund really needed stocks, and then sell positions when the index fund bought.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"But one of the important issues is that when new shares are quickly included in the index, the time for arbitragers to build inventory positions will be significantly shorter,\" Sammon said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In another study, he and Harvard colleague Chris Murray looked at CRSP — an index provider with a quick inclusion mechanism for fractional IPOs. They found that companies that were included in the index early outperformed the market by an average of 5 percentage points before the date of inclusion, and this effect would retreat significantly within three weeks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>They also found that companies that were quickly included in the index were able to raise more money in stock market IPOs — suggesting that rigid passive investment needs do have real economic expansion consequences.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is actually equivalent to a \"shadow tax\" on passive investors: they have to choose mechanical buying at a high level; At the same time, companies themselves cannot sell equity assets directly to index-tracking funds.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"When the inclusion window is compressed, mechanical demand of the same scale is more likely to bring a larger short-term price shock and subsequent reversal.\" Sammon said. \"This situation will be further amplified by the volatility and poor liquidity of the market itself after the IPO. In this environment, the cost of index fund investors will be higher.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For index providers, whether to quickly include a company is essentially a choice between two risks: one is to hastily include an over-speculated new stock target; The other is the huge inflow of money brought by missing the listing moment of an industry giant.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to SpaceX, the world's two largest AI application leaders-OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to conduct large IPOs soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices has rejected proposals that could give the three companies early and quick entry into the U.S. benchmark index, and other index compilers have generally loosened index inclusion rules to include these giant IPO technology companies earlier.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“<strong>Companies are now choosing to go public at a more mature stage of development, and the rapid inclusion of IPOs helps the index better represent those listed companies that are truly important to economic growth prospects</strong>。” Economists Phil Mackintosh and Nicole Torskiy from Nasdaq wrote in the company's blog last week.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>According to their research based on data from 2010 to 2025, stocks that entered the Russell 1000 first tend to outperform the S&P 1500</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even so, Intropic said passive demand for SpaceX stock could still form a<strong>\"reflexive loop\". In a blog post published on Monday, the agency pointed out that the size of capital inflows generated by each index will depend on the company's market capitalization on the rank date of each index. This market value itself may be temporarily pushed up because arbitragers open positions in advance and prepare for mechanical buying.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If investors participating in the IPO themselves subscribe for shares in anticipation of future passive capital demand, the cycle may even extend further to the IPO pricing stage, Intropic said. \"The price shock from passive money flows is usually short-lived, but it can disrupt the price discovery mechanism at the most important moment in a business's stock market journey,\" the London-based financial institution wrote.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2433600793\">SpaceX is not a terminator, but an amplifier of AI computing power frenzy! AI super bull market or just entering the second half</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The \"huge IPO pumping effect\" that some investors are worried about does exist, but its impact is more skewed towards the short-term market structure,<strong>Rather than long-term bull market logic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>According to the latest research report, even if the total equity issuance scale in the United States reaches about 600 billion USD in 2026, it will be less than 1% of the total market value of the United States stock market. Theoretically, the market can absorb it, but it will squeeze small IPOs and some high-crowded positions in stages. Goldman Sachs said that even if the IPO financing forecast in 2026 is raised to 225 billion USD, and additional issuance, convertible bonds, SPAC, etc. are included to form a greater equity supply, it has not broken through the historical normal according to the proportion of the total market value of the US stock market and the historical percentile; More importantly, U.S. corporate repurchases are still the strongest demand side of the market, and Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to still be supported by earnings growth.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX is accelerating its transformation from a \"commercial space and space exploration company\" to a \"global AI computing infrastructure operator + AI application giant\".<strong>The subscription scale of $250 billion far exceeds expectations, which is enough to show that the market accepts this growth narrative. Since then, it will continue to strengthen the trend and trajectory that \"SpaceX's record IPO is actually expanding the boundaries of AI super bull market, rather than consuming the liquidity of AI bull market\".</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ARM, Micron, SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">Samsung Electronics</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The stock prices of AI computing power industry chain leaders have recently adjusted sharply, which reflects more expected repricing than industrial logic reversal. In the past year, some links in the AI industry chain have risen too fast, and the market has begun to return from \"infinite optimistic expectation\" to \"actual order fulfillment rhythm\".<strong>Historically, whether IT is cloud computing super cycle, smart phone cycle or IT Internet cycle, the trend of leading industries is often accompanied by 20%-40% periodic adjustment. As long as the global AI data center construction process is in full swing, the full-stack AI computing power infrastructure layer such as AI GPU/AI ASIC, data center high-performance CPU, DRAM/NAND/HBM storage, high-performance network infrastructure, AI PCB, liquid cooling system, data center optical interconnect system, ABF carrier board/glass substrate and extensive wafer foundry will continue to expand and grow on a large scale, and this kind of adjustment is closer to changing hands and valuation digestion in AI bull market than the starting point of bear market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the view of some analysts, the preconditions that really lead to the complete bursting of the \"AI bubble\" and even the global stock market falling into a bear market are<strong>It is not SpaceX's unprecedented IPO itself, but SpaceX's extremely high valuation IPO superimposed on a record upward trend in the yield of long-term U.S. bonds of 10 years or more, a sharp slowdown in corporate profits, a slowdown in AI capital expenditure, unanimous doubts from investors in AI revenue-generating returns, mechanical adjustment of passive funds and active fund redemption pressure at the same time.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From the perspective of global capital flow,<strong>At present, it is more like the AI super bull market entering its second phase.</strong>The first phase is driven by a hyperscale training cluster dominated by AI GPUs and ASICs; The second phase began to spread to data center power chain, HBM/DRAM/NAND, advanced packaging, liquid cooling, data center CPU, optical communication/optical interconnection, high-performance Ethernet network infrastructure/data center DCI high-speed interconnection, and \"new AI centers\" such as space AI computing power infrastructure represented by SpaceX, AI application terminals such as PC, wearable consumer electronics, humanoid robots and autonomous driving.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street financial giant, has repeatedly raised the target of South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index recently, betting that the volatile South Korean stock market, which has soared 100% this year, will still soar.<strong>Goldman Sachs' target point for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index has been raised from 8,000 and 9,000 to 12,000 points (in contrast, the index opened around 7,900 on Wednesday). Its core logic is not macro stimulus or monetary policy factors, but the long-term storage boom cycle and the continuous explosion of AI memory/memory chip demand, while SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>The Korean leader is precisely one of the most important beneficiaries of the global AI computing power chain.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8644399e41558064729bc8dffe946045\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest research report released by Wall Street commercial banking giant JPMorgan Chase,<strong>Driven by the bull market carnival of technology stocks dominated by the theme of AI computing power trading, the agency predicts that the S&P 500 index, one of the benchmark stock indexes of U.S. stocks, may break through the seemingly unreachable epic barrier of 9,000 points in the next year, which means that the benchmark stock index, which has soared by more than 60% since 2024, can also rise by more than 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the view of a team of analysts at Wall Street financial giant Bank of America<strong>AI computing infrastructure is entering a more sustained and broader capital expenditure cycle. Almost at the same time, a research report released by Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street financial giant, showed that the arms race of AI computing power has entered the stage of system-level expansion, and the demand for AI infrastructure is showing a rare \"inelastic\" trend-that is, no matter what the cost curve, technology giants continue to build AI data centers, and this \"inelastic demand\" will continue to strengthen the resilience of the US economy and the overall profit growth rate of the S&P 500 index. It is predicted that by 2028, nearly $3 trillion in AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy, and more than 80% of the expenditure is still ahead.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wei Zhejia, the helm of TSMC, said at the annual shareholders' meeting last week that the demand will exceed the supply in the coming years. Even if the new production capacity in the United States goes online, it will still be difficult for TSMC to fully meet the AI-driven demand in the coming years; At the specific AI capital expenditure outlook level, Wei Zhejia, the helm of TSMC, said at the shareholders' meeting that \"I don't know where the high point is\" and \"I don't see any demand stop indicators\", which can be described as the statement of the industrial chain giant with the most bullish level of AI computing power industry chain in this TSMC shareholders' meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI Super Bull Market Enters \"SpaceX Moment\"! Passive capital rocket fuel is ready to ignite, and AI computing power frenzy is far from ending</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI Super Bull Market Enters \"SpaceX Moment\"! Passive capital rocket fuel is ready to ignite, and AI computing power frenzy is far from ending\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-06-10 12:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recently, many financial market professional scholars and market observers have written that index tracking funds (i.e. index ETFs) are about to form billions of dollars of new demand for SpaceX stocks.<strong>This outlook may form a feedback loop, further pushing up the stock price and overall market cap of the American supergiant founded by Elon Musk, which focuses on \"space exploration + AI\".</strong>The investment and construction process of AI computing power-related infrastructure with an expected scale of up to USD 3 trillion is in full swing, and the prospect of billions of dollars of demand for SpaceX stocks from index tracking funds is superimposed. Therefore, in the eyes of some analysts who are bullish on the market outlook, for the \"AI super bull market\" sweeping the global stock market, the global bull market around AI may be far from over.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">That is to say, after 15 days of public market trading, about 30% of SpaceX's free float shares will be held by passive investors focusing on index ETFs, which may continue to bring upward impetus to the stock price.<strong>SpaceX's record-breaking unprecedented IPO scale is no longer just a single financing event, but more like an extreme stress test of the ability to undertake funds under the background of the global \"AI super bull market\". In the eyes of some analysts, SpaceX may become a strong amplifier of the AI super bull market, not a bubble terminator.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On Tuesday, Eastern Time, some media reported that, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in investor subscription demand, far exceeding the $75 billion the company plans to raise, and is on track to become the largest initial public offering (or IPO) in history. If SpaceX's share price continues to rise due to index funds and scarce circulation, it may further attract more funds to chase, thus further strengthening the valuation expansion. Therefore, in the eyes of some Wall Street analysts who continue to be optimistic about the general trend of the global \"AI super bull market\" dominated by the AI computing power frenzy, the trajectory of the AI super bull market is far from over. SpaceX is more like the beneficiary and amplifier of the AI super bull market than the \"pumping\" terminator that the market panics</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The subscription scale of $250 billion itself shows that,<strong>At present, the global venture capital's pursuit of AI computing infrastructure, commercial aerospace and the next generation of space-focused AI infrastructure assets is far from cooling down. If the market is really on the verge of liquidity depletion, it is difficult to have nearly 4x oversubscription.</strong>Instead, it means that a lot of long-term money, sovereign funds, pensions, growth funds and active hedge fund money are actively looking for core assets that can carry the growth narrative of the next decade.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From the latest mainstream view on Wall Street, despite the recent inclusion of ARM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>SK Hynix and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>The share price of AI computing power industry chain in the global stock market has been sharply corrected, but there is no pessimistic consensus on Wall Street that \"AI super bull market is over\". Instead, there is the opposite phenomenon: more and more large investment institutions are raising the target level of the benchmark stock index, and the reasons for the increase are almost all related to the wave of AI capital expenditure, the hot process of AI infrastructure construction and AI-driven profit expansion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wall Street Merchant Banking Giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The latest research report released shows that, driven by the bull market carnival of technology stocks dominated by the theme of AI computing power trading, the agency predicts that one of the benchmark stock indexes of U.S. stocks will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index may break through the seemingly unreachable epic barrier of 9,000 points in the next year, meaning that the benchmark stock index, which has soared by more than 60% since 2024, can still rise by more than 20%.<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is clearly pointed out that AI computing power-related infrastructure investment is supporting enterprise profitability and risk asset performance; At the same time, it is emphasized that the real risk comes from runaway inflation and rising financing costs, rather than AI-related demand recession or the pessimistic narrative of \"AI bubble burst\". Citi bucked the trend and raised the S&P 500 target for the year-end from 7,700 to 8,100, making it one of the investment banks with the highest target among mainstream Wall Street institutions</strong>。</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3837930952\">When Index Funds Meet SpaceX: Passive Investing Is Rewriting Price Discovery Mechanism by Hand</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nasdaq Inc., FTSE Russell, and MSCI Global Indexes Inc. (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSCI\">MSCI Inc</a>.) are now ready to quickly integrate the company into their respective benchmark indexing systems.<strong>About 30% of SpaceX's free float will be held by passive investors just 15 days after listing for trading, according to statistics from index rebalancing forecasting service Intropic. By contrast, under the previous slower index inclusion rules of these index providers, this proportion is only about 4%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Strong expectations of this mechanical demand alone are enough to create a significant upside driver for SpaceX shares, even before investment funds scramble for shares. Combined with the market bullish beliefs surrounding Musk himself and the market frenetic bullish sentiment surrounding SpaceX and artificial intelligence, the risk is that the index product itself may push the stock cost price it ultimately has to pay up.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf5e476702d8031dab002c2a7d093f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This also makes the heavy listing of this rocket manufacturer + artificial intelligence leader not only the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but also an important \"rational test\" to test the influence of passive investment funds on the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"One of the reasons every index provider has tried to include SpaceX in the benchmark index so quickly is that there is an implicit competitive relationship between the benchmark indexes,\" said Marco Sammon, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School who has long studied the impact of passive investing. \"This looks like an index compilation method, not a fundamental factor, but it may have a huge impact on prices.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest calculations of Bloomberg Intelligence, a research firm, passive investment vehicles currently account for about 60% of the assets of U.S. equity funds and control about one-fifth of the market value of the S&P 500 index. Therefore, professional scholars in financial markets have long been worried that indexed investment may distort trading behavior and market price formation mechanism.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sammon, from Harvard University, has previously demonstrated that,<strong>Upward price pressure from the inclusion of index constituents was effectively dampened due to widespread anticipation of the index inclusion event. A research report by Sammon shows that the core reason behind this is that professional traders in hedge funds and market makers tend to buy stocks in advance and gradually to lay out</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a working paper he co-wrote with John Shim and Stefano Pegoraro, they found that these intermediaries would build positions before the index fund really needed stocks, and then sell positions when the index fund bought.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"But one of the important issues is that when new shares are quickly included in the index, the time for arbitragers to build inventory positions will be significantly shorter,\" Sammon said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In another study, he and Harvard colleague Chris Murray looked at CRSP — an index provider with a quick inclusion mechanism for fractional IPOs. They found that companies that were included in the index early outperformed the market by an average of 5 percentage points before the date of inclusion, and this effect would retreat significantly within three weeks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>They also found that companies that were quickly included in the index were able to raise more money in stock market IPOs — suggesting that rigid passive investment needs do have real economic expansion consequences.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is actually equivalent to a \"shadow tax\" on passive investors: they have to choose mechanical buying at a high level; At the same time, companies themselves cannot sell equity assets directly to index-tracking funds.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"When the inclusion window is compressed, mechanical demand of the same scale is more likely to bring a larger short-term price shock and subsequent reversal.\" Sammon said. \"This situation will be further amplified by the volatility and poor liquidity of the market itself after the IPO. In this environment, the cost of index fund investors will be higher.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For index providers, whether to quickly include a company is essentially a choice between two risks: one is to hastily include an over-speculated new stock target; The other is the huge inflow of money brought by missing the listing moment of an industry giant.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to SpaceX, the world's two largest AI application leaders-OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to conduct large IPOs soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices has rejected proposals that could give the three companies early and quick entry into the U.S. benchmark index, and other index compilers have generally loosened index inclusion rules to include these giant IPO technology companies earlier.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“<strong>Companies are now choosing to go public at a more mature stage of development, and the rapid inclusion of IPOs helps the index better represent those listed companies that are truly important to economic growth prospects</strong>。” Economists Phil Mackintosh and Nicole Torskiy from Nasdaq wrote in the company's blog last week.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>According to their research based on data from 2010 to 2025, stocks that entered the Russell 1000 first tend to outperform the S&P 1500</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even so, Intropic said passive demand for SpaceX stock could still form a<strong>\"reflexive loop\". In a blog post published on Monday, the agency pointed out that the size of capital inflows generated by each index will depend on the company's market capitalization on the rank date of each index. This market value itself may be temporarily pushed up because arbitragers open positions in advance and prepare for mechanical buying.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If investors participating in the IPO themselves subscribe for shares in anticipation of future passive capital demand, the cycle may even extend further to the IPO pricing stage, Intropic said. \"The price shock from passive money flows is usually short-lived, but it can disrupt the price discovery mechanism at the most important moment in a business's stock market journey,\" the London-based financial institution wrote.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2433600793\">SpaceX is not a terminator, but an amplifier of AI computing power frenzy! AI super bull market or just entering the second half</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The \"huge IPO pumping effect\" that some investors are worried about does exist, but its impact is more skewed towards the short-term market structure,<strong>Rather than long-term bull market logic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>According to the latest research report, even if the total equity issuance scale in the United States reaches about 600 billion USD in 2026, it will be less than 1% of the total market value of the United States stock market. Theoretically, the market can absorb it, but it will squeeze small IPOs and some high-crowded positions in stages. Goldman Sachs said that even if the IPO financing forecast in 2026 is raised to 225 billion USD, and additional issuance, convertible bonds, SPAC, etc. are included to form a greater equity supply, it has not broken through the historical normal according to the proportion of the total market value of the US stock market and the historical percentile; More importantly, U.S. corporate repurchases are still the strongest demand side of the market, and Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to still be supported by earnings growth.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX is accelerating its transformation from a \"commercial space and space exploration company\" to a \"global AI computing infrastructure operator + AI application giant\".<strong>The subscription scale of $250 billion far exceeds expectations, which is enough to show that the market accepts this growth narrative. Since then, it will continue to strengthen the trend and trajectory that \"SpaceX's record IPO is actually expanding the boundaries of AI super bull market, rather than consuming the liquidity of AI bull market\".</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ARM, Micron, SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">Samsung Electronics</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The stock prices of AI computing power industry chain leaders have recently adjusted sharply, which reflects more expected repricing than industrial logic reversal. In the past year, some links in the AI industry chain have risen too fast, and the market has begun to return from \"infinite optimistic expectation\" to \"actual order fulfillment rhythm\".<strong>Historically, whether IT is cloud computing super cycle, smart phone cycle or IT Internet cycle, the trend of leading industries is often accompanied by 20%-40% periodic adjustment. As long as the global AI data center construction process is in full swing, the full-stack AI computing power infrastructure layer such as AI GPU/AI ASIC, data center high-performance CPU, DRAM/NAND/HBM storage, high-performance network infrastructure, AI PCB, liquid cooling system, data center optical interconnect system, ABF carrier board/glass substrate and extensive wafer foundry will continue to expand and grow on a large scale, and this kind of adjustment is closer to changing hands and valuation digestion in AI bull market than the starting point of bear market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the view of some analysts, the preconditions that really lead to the complete bursting of the \"AI bubble\" and even the global stock market falling into a bear market are<strong>It is not SpaceX's unprecedented IPO itself, but SpaceX's extremely high valuation IPO superimposed on a record upward trend in the yield of long-term U.S. bonds of 10 years or more, a sharp slowdown in corporate profits, a slowdown in AI capital expenditure, unanimous doubts from investors in AI revenue-generating returns, mechanical adjustment of passive funds and active fund redemption pressure at the same time.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From the perspective of global capital flow,<strong>At present, it is more like the AI super bull market entering its second phase.</strong>The first phase is driven by a hyperscale training cluster dominated by AI GPUs and ASICs; The second phase began to spread to data center power chain, HBM/DRAM/NAND, advanced packaging, liquid cooling, data center CPU, optical communication/optical interconnection, high-performance Ethernet network infrastructure/data center DCI high-speed interconnection, and \"new AI centers\" such as space AI computing power infrastructure represented by SpaceX, AI application terminals such as PC, wearable consumer electronics, humanoid robots and autonomous driving.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street financial giant, has repeatedly raised the target of South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index recently, betting that the volatile South Korean stock market, which has soared 100% this year, will still soar.<strong>Goldman Sachs' target point for South Korea's KOSPI benchmark index has been raised from 8,000 and 9,000 to 12,000 points (in contrast, the index opened around 7,900 on Wednesday). Its core logic is not macro stimulus or monetary policy factors, but the long-term storage boom cycle and the continuous explosion of AI memory/memory chip demand, while SK Hynix,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>The Korean leader is precisely one of the most important beneficiaries of the global AI computing power chain.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8644399e41558064729bc8dffe946045\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the latest research report released by Wall Street commercial banking giant JPMorgan Chase,<strong>Driven by the bull market carnival of technology stocks dominated by the theme of AI computing power trading, the agency predicts that the S&P 500 index, one of the benchmark stock indexes of U.S. stocks, may break through the seemingly unreachable epic barrier of 9,000 points in the next year, which means that the benchmark stock index, which has soared by more than 60% since 2024, can also rise by more than 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the view of a team of analysts at Wall Street financial giant Bank of America<strong>AI computing infrastructure is entering a more sustained and broader capital expenditure cycle. Almost at the same time, a research report released by Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street financial giant, showed that the arms race of AI computing power has entered the stage of system-level expansion, and the demand for AI infrastructure is showing a rare \"inelastic\" trend-that is, no matter what the cost curve, technology giants continue to build AI data centers, and this \"inelastic demand\" will continue to strengthen the resilience of the US economy and the overall profit growth rate of the S&P 500 index. It is predicted that by 2028, nearly $3 trillion in AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy, and more than 80% of the expenditure is still ahead.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wei Zhejia, the helm of TSMC, said at the annual shareholders' meeting last week that the demand will exceed the supply in the coming years. Even if the new production capacity in the United States goes online, it will still be difficult for TSMC to fully meet the AI-driven demand in the coming years; At the specific AI capital expenditure outlook level, Wei Zhejia, the helm of TSMC, said at the shareholders' meeting that \"I don't know where the high point is\" and \"I don't see any demand stop indicators\", which can be described as the statement of the industrial chain giant with the most bullish level of AI computing power industry chain in this TSMC shareholders' meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a92dcaf28f64e8cb7016e217314e1f","relate_stocks":{"BK4615":"SpaceX概念","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","SPCU":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF","SPAL":"GraniteShares 2x Long SpaceX Daily ETF","SNK":"GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","UFO":"Procure Space ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642415418","content_text":"近日有不少金融市场专业学者和市场观察人士撰文表示，指数追踪型基金(即指数ETF)即将对SpaceX股票形成数十亿美元的新增需求，这种前景可能会形成一个反馈循环，进一步推高埃隆·马斯克创立的这家聚焦于“太空探索+AI”的美国超级巨头股票价格与整体市值。预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。SpaceX创纪录级别的前所未有IPO规模，已经不只是单个融资事件，更像是一次对全球“AI超级牛市“背景下资金承接能力的极限压力测试，并且在一些分析师看来，SpaceX或成AI超级牛市的强劲放大器，而非泡沫终结者。在美东时间周二，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，SpaceX已吸引超过2500亿美元的投资者认购需求，远超该公司计划筹集的750亿美元，有望成为史上最大规模的首次公开募股(即IPO)。如果SpaceX股价因指数资金和稀缺流通盘持续上涨，就可能进一步吸引更多资金追逐，从而进一步强化估值扩张，因此在一些持续看好AI算力狂潮所主导的全球“AI超级牛市”行情大趋势的华尔街分析师们看来，AI超级牛市轨迹远未完结，SpaceX更像是AI超级牛市的受益者和放大器，而非市场所恐慌的“抽水型”终结者。2500亿美元认购规模本身说明，当前全球风险资本对于AI算力基础设施、商业航天和下一代聚焦太空的AI基础设施资产的追逐远未降温。如果市场真的处于流动性枯竭边缘，很难出现近4倍超额认购。相反，这意味着大量长期资金、主权基金、养老金、成长基金和主动型对冲基金资金正在主动寻找能够承载未来十年增长叙事的核心资产。从华尔街最新主流观点来看，尽管近期包括ARM、美光、SK海力士以及三星在内的全球股市AI算力产业链股价大幅回调，但是在华尔街目前并没有出现“AI超级牛市结束”的悲观共识，反而出现了截然相反现象：越来越多大型投资机构是在上调基准股指目标位，而上调理由几乎都与AI资本开支浪潮、AI基础设施建设进程火热以及AI驱动的盈利扩张有关。华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。摩根士丹利明确指出AI算力相关基础设施投资正在支撑企业盈利与风险资产表现;同时强调真正风险来自通胀失控和融资成本上升，而非AI相关的需求衰退或者是“AI泡沫破裂”悲观叙事。 花旗更是逆势将标普500指数年底目标点位从7700点上调至8100点，成为华尔街主流机构中目标最高的投行之一。当指数基金遇上SpaceX：被动投资正亲手改写价格发现机制在此前两家大型指数提供商修改规则允许SpaceX被提前纳入基准指数之后，纳斯达克指数公司(Nasdaq Inc.)、富时罗素指数公司(FTSE Russell)以及MSCI全球指数公司(MSCI Inc.)现在都准备将该公司快速纳入各自的基准指数编制体系。根据指数再平衡预测服务商Intropic的统计数据，仅在上市交易15天后，约30%的SpaceX自由流通股就将由被动投资者持有。而作为对比，在这些指数提供商们此前较慢的指数纳入规则下，这一比例大约只有4%。仅仅是对这种机械性需求的强劲预期，就足以对SpaceX股价形成重大上行驱动力，甚至发生在投资基金之间争抢股票之前。再叠加围绕马斯克本人的市场看涨信仰，以及围绕SpaceX与人工智能的市场狂热看涨情绪，风险则在于，指数产品本身可能会推动其最终不得不支付的股票成本价格不断上涨。这也使得这家火箭制造商+人工智能领军者的重磅上市，不仅成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)，同时也成为检验被动投资资金对于市场影响力的一次重要“理性测试”。“每一家指数提供商都试图如此迅速地将SpaceX纳入基准指数，其中一个原因是基准指数之间存在隐性的竞争关系。”长期研究被动投资影响的哈佛商学院助理教授Marco Sammon表示。“这看起来是一个指数编制方法，而非基本面因素，但是可能对价格产生巨大影响的案例。”根据研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence的最新测算数据，目前被动投资工具约占美国股票型基金资产的大约60%，并控制着标普500指数约五分之一的市值。因此，金融市场的专业学者们长期以来可谓一直担忧，指数化投资可能会扭曲交易行为和市场价格形成机制。来自哈佛大学的Sammon此前曾证明，由于对指数纳入事件的广泛预期，指数成分股纳入所带来的价格上行压力实际上得到了抑制。Sammon发布的一份研究报告显示，背后的核心原因在于，对冲基金和做市商中的专业交易员们往往会提前逐步买入股票进行布局。在他与John Shim以及Stefano Pegoraro合作撰写的一篇工作论文中，他们发现这些中介机构会在指数基金真正需要股票之前建立仓位，然后在指数基金买入时卖出持仓。“但是其中的一个重要问题在于，新股被快速纳入指数后，套利者建立库存仓位的时间将大幅缩短。”Sammon表示。在另一项研究中，他与哈佛大学同事Chris Murray研究了CRSP——一家拥有部分IPO快速纳入机制的指数提供商。他们发现，被提前纳入指数的公司，在指数纳入日前平均跑赢市场5个百分点，而这一效应会在三周内显著回吐。他们还发现，被快速纳入指数的公司能够在股票市场IPO中募集更多资金——这表明刚性的被动投资需求确实会产生真实的经济扩张后果。这实际上相当于对被动投资者征收了一种“影子税(shadow tax)”：他们不得不在高位选择机械买入;与此同时，公司本身却无法直接将股票资产出售给指数追踪基金。“当纳入窗口被压缩时，同样规模的机械性需求更有可能带来更大的短期价格冲击，并随后出现反转。”Sammon表示，“而这种情况又会因IPO后市场本身波动大、流动性相当较差而被进一步放大。在这种环境下，指数型基金的投资者们所承担的成本将更高。”对于指数提供商而言，是否快速纳入一家公司，本质上是在两种风险之间做选择：一种是仓促纳入一个被过度炒作的新股标的;另一种则是错过一家行业巨头的上市时刻带来的巨大资金流入。除了SpaceX之外，全球两大AI应用领军者——OpenAI和Anthropic预计也将在不久之后进行大型IPO。标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)已经拒绝了可能让这三家公司提前且快速进入美国基准指数的提议，其他指数编制公司则普遍松绑指数纳入规则以更早纳入这些巨额IPO科技公司。“企业如今是在更加成熟的发展阶段才选择上市，而快速纳入IPO有助于指数更好地代表那些真正对经济增长前景重要的上市公司。”来自纳斯达克公司的经济学家Phil Mackintosh和Nicole Torskiy上周在公司博客中写道。根据他们基于2010年至2025年数据的研究，率先进入罗素1000指数(Russell 1000)的股票，往往能够跑赢标普1500指数(S&P 1500)。即便如此，Intropic表示，对SpaceX股票的被动需求仍可能形成一个“反身性循环(reflexive loop)”。该机构在周一发布的博客文章中指出，各指数所产生的资金流入规模，将取决于公司在各指数排名日(rank date)的市值。而这一市值本身，可能因为套利者提前建仓、准备迎接机械性买盘而被暂时推高。如果参与IPO的投资者们本身也是出于对未来被动资金需求的预期而认购股票，那么这种循环甚至可能进一步延伸至IPO定价阶段，Intropic表示。“被动资金流所带来的价格冲击通常是短暂的，但它可能会在一家企业股票市场旅程中最重要的时刻，扰乱价格发现机制。”这家总部位于伦敦的金融机构写道。SpaceX不是终结者，而是AI算力狂潮的放大器! AI超级牛市或刚进入下半场一些投资者所担忧的“巨额IPO抽水效应”确实存在，但其影响更偏向短期市场结构，而非长期牛市逻辑。高盛的最新研究报告显示，2026年美国总股权发行规模即便达到约6000亿美元，也不到美国股市总市值的1%，理论上市场可以吸收，只是会阶段性挤压小型IPO和部分高拥挤持仓。高盛表示，即便把2026年IPO融资预测上调至2250亿美元，并将增发、可转债、SPAC等纳入后形成更大的股权供给，按美国股市总市值比例以及历史百分位来看仍未突破历史常态;更关键的是，美国企业回购仍是市场最强需求端，并且高盛预计标普500指数仍有盈利增长支撑。SpaceX正在从“商业航天与太空探索公司”加速向“全球AI算力基础设施运营商+AI应用巨无霸”转型，2500亿美元认购规模远超预期足以说明市场接受这一增长叙事，此后也将不断强化“SpaceX创纪录IPO实际上是在扩展AI超级牛市的边界，而不是消耗AI牛市的流动性”的趋势与轨迹。ARM、美光、SK海力士、三星电子以及AMD、台积电等AI算力产业链领军者们股价近期大幅调整，更多体现的是预期重定价而非产业逻辑逆转。过去一年AI产业链部分环节涨幅过快，市场开始从“无限乐观预期”回归到“实际订单兑现节奏”。历史上无论是云计算超级周期、智能手机周期还是IT互联网周期，龙头产业趋势往往伴随着20%-40%的阶段性调整。只要全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼带动AI GPU/AI ASIC、数据中心高性能CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、高性能网络基础设施、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层继续大规模扩张与增长，这类调整更接近AI牛市中的换手与估值消化，而非熊市起点。在一些分析师看来，真正导致“AI泡沫”彻底破裂乃至全球股市陷入熊市的前置条件，不是SpaceX史无前例IPO上市本身，而是SpaceX极高估值IPO叠加10年及以上长期限美债收益率创纪录式上行、企业盈利大幅放缓、AI资本开支放缓、AI创收回报遭遇投资者们一致质疑、被动资金机械调仓和主动基金赎回压力同时出现。从全球资本流向观察，目前更像是AI超级牛市进入第二阶段。第一阶段由AI GPU和ASIC主导的超大规模训练集群驱动;第二阶段开始向数据中心电力链条、HBM/DRAM/NAND、先进封装、液冷散热、数据中心CPU、光通信/光互连、高性能以太网网络基础设施/数据中心DCI高速互联，以及PC、可穿戴消费电子、人形机器人、自动驾驶等AI应用终端SpaceX所代表的太空AI算力基础设施等“新AI中心”全面扩散。华尔街金融巨头高盛近期多次上调韩国KOSPI基准指数目标位，押注今年以来疯涨100%且波动剧烈的韩国股市还能狂飙，高盛对于韩国KOSPI基准指数的目标点位从8000、9000一路提升至12000点(相比之下，该指数周三开盘交易于7900附近)，其核心逻辑并非宏观刺激或者货币政策因素，而是长期存储景气周期与AI内存/存储芯片需求持续大爆发，而SK海力士、三星电子等韩国龙头恰恰是全球AI算力链条最重要的受益者之一。华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。在华尔街金融巨头美国银行(Bank of America )的分析师团队看来，AI算力基础设施正在进入更持久、更宽广的资本开支周期。几乎同一时间，另一华尔街金融巨头摩根士丹利发布的研报显示，AI算力军备竞赛进入系统级扩张阶段，AI基础设施需求正在呈现罕见的“无弹性”趋势——即无论成本曲线如何，科技巨头们仍然继续加码建设AI数据中心，而这种“需求无弹性”会持续强化美国经济韧性以及标普500指数整体盈利增速，并且预测到2028年，接近3万亿美元AI相关基础设施投资将流经全球经济，而且超过80%的支出仍在前方。台积电掌舵者魏哲家上周在年度股东会上表示，需求将在未来多年超过供给，即使美国新增产能上线，台积电未来数年仍难以完全满足AI驱动需求;具体的AI资本开支展望层面，台积电掌舵者魏哲家在股东大会上表述的“高点在哪里我也不知道”“没有看到任何需求停止指标”可谓是这次台积电股东会最具AI算力产业链看涨层面的产业链巨头表态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGIX":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"SPCU":1.1,"SNK":1.1,"XOVR":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"SPCX":1.5,"SPAL":1.1,"DXYZ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}