97% Probability of a 10%+ $SPY Correction After June 15
97% probability $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashes at least 10% after June 15.
There's 4 massive reasons SPY can't avoid it:
1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before SPY crashed 78%.
2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.
3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.
4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.
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