May.25-29 Weekly: S&P 500 Extends 9-Week Rally While Oil Crashes and Inflation Refuses to Cool

TigerObserver
11:02

Last Week's Recap

1. Weekly Market Digest: S&P 500's 9-Week Run, PCE Inflation Hot, Oil Crashes

  • Pushing higher — S&P 500 ninth straight weekly gain; NASDAQ +2.4%, S&P +1.4%, Dow +0.9%.

  • Price pressures — April PCE inflation at 3.8% annual rate (highest since May 2023); core PCE 3.3%.

  • Oil pullback — Crude fell for a second straight week on U.S.-Iran talks, down nearly 10% for the week to ~$88; roughly 16% lower for May.

  • May's momentum — NASDAQ +8.4%, S&P 500 +5.1%, Dow +2.8% in May, though short of April's double-digit gains.

  • GDP downgrade — Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6% (from 2.0%) on weaker consumer spending and investment.

  • Rising expectations — Analysts raised Q2 S&P 500 earnings estimates by 2.5% in April/May, per FactSet; results begin mid-July.

  • East Asian rally — South Korea surged nearly 11% on AI optimism; Japan climbed to record highs, up nearly 2%.

  • Jobs ahead — Friday jobs report will test labor market strength; April added 175,000 jobs, breaking a 10-month alternating pattern.

2. US Market – SPX gains 1.43% as AI software and memory rally offset retail and energy drag

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.43% and closed at 7,580.06, as a surge in AI software, memory chips, and cloud infrastructure offset sharp declines in retail and energy majors.

Industry leaders: WallStreetBets (+14.05%), AI Application Software (+13.91%), IT Consulting & Services (+11.30%), Systems Software (+9.04%), and SaaS Concept (+8.81%).

9 Popular Stocks:

  • $Micron Technology(MU)$ +27.41% — Surged on blowout quarterly results and soaring HBM demand for AI servers.

  • $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +14.79% — Rallied on AI accelerator market-share optimism and data-center revenue growth.

  • $Broadcom(AVGO)$ +7.77% — Advanced on AI custom silicon demand and VMware integration synergies.

  • $Microsoft(MSFT)$ +7.43% — Gained on Azure AI monetization and resilient enterprise cloud spending.

  • $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ +6.08% — Extended GLP-1 momentum on Mounjaro/Zepbound demand.

  • $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -3.81% — Slipped on profit-taking and rotation into mid-cap AI plays.

  • $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ -4.61% — Continued to slide on consumer-spending caution and e-commerce margin pressure.

  • $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ -6.46% — Tumbled alongside crude oil on OPEC+ supply increase rumors.

  • $Costco(COST)$ -8.96% — Plunged on earnings miss and membership fee timing concerns.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3. Hong Kong Market – HSI retreats 1.65% as tech divergence deepens; HSTECH ekes out gains

$HSI(HSI)$: The Hang Seng Index declined 1.65% and closed at 25,182.39, as heavy selling in internet giants and oil majors offset a frenzied rally in semiconductor and software plays.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ edged up 0.30% and closed at 4,882.4, with AI chip and hardware names masking weakness in platform-economy giants.

Industry leaders: Systems Software (+39.13%), Electronic Components (+18.31%), HK Semiconductor Stocks (+13.50%), Home Improvement Retail (+12.83%), and Apple Concept (+12.35%).

9 Popular Stocks:

  • $CATL(03750)$ +10.54% — The battery giant surged on resilient global EV battery orders and energy-storage contract wins in Europe; investors looked past lithium-price weakness to focus on its dominant market share.

  • $FAST RETAIL-DRS(06288)$ +4.94% — The UNIQLO operator’s depositary receipt advanced on China same-store sales stabilization and raised FY2026 guidance on Southeast Asia expansion.

  • $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ +4.4% — The coal and power giant gained on resilient domestic thermal coal demand and its integrated energy model offering defensive yield.

  • $HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$ +2.4% — The banking heavyweight rose on Asian franchise resilience and its 7%+ dividend yield, attracting defensive rotation.

  • $CM BANK(03968)$ +2.08% — The mainland retail bank advanced on improving wealth-management fee income and stable asset quality.

  • $TENCENT(00700)$ -2.69% — The internet giant slipped on gaming and fintech valuation compression, with profit-taking in platform-economy names continuing.

  • $ICBC(01398)$ -2.35% — The state-owned lender pulled back on profit-taking after recent strength, with NIM stabilization failing to offset financial-sector rotation.

  • $CNOOC(00883)$ -3.3% — The offshore oil specialist tracked Brent crude lower as profit-taking hit the energy complex after recent gains.

  • $BABA-W(09988)$ -4.36% — The tech conglomerate declined on platform-economy profit-taking and e-commerce margin concerns; regulatory overhang continued to cap sentiment.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4. Singapore Market – STI slips 0.6% as telecom and insurance drag offset ASEAN SDR strength

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined 0.6% and closed at 5,037.86, as a sharp selloff in Singtel and Prudential offset gains in ASEAN SDRs and industrials.

Sectors: Aluminum (+124.72%) skyrocketed on speculative supply-constraint positioning and thin-volume momentum. Forest Products (+23.07%) advanced on packaging demand recovery.

8 Popular Stocks:

  • $Delta TH SDR 1to1(TDED.SI)$ +9.05% — The Thai power-electronics leader extended its rally on AI data-center power-supply demand and EV powertrain order momentum across its India and Slovakia footprint.

  • $TLKM ID SDR 1to5(ITKD.SI)$ +4.76% — The Indonesian telecom giant’s SDR advanced on resilient mobile data revenue and its 7%+ dividend yield attracting income investors; the stock benefited from renewed ASEAN SDR inflows.

  • $Airports TH TH SDR1to1(TATD.SI)$ +4.88% — The Thai airport operator’s SDR climbed on tourism recovery optimism and resilient passenger traffic through Suvarnabhumi; the upcoming dividend timeline also supported sentiment.

  • $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ +2.8% — The government-linked engineering group continued its defense and smart-city momentum, with aircraft MRO contract flows underpinning steady institutional buying.

  • $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ -4.32% — The Chinese tech conglomerate’s SDR declined in sympathy with the broader Hang Seng Tech weakness; profit-taking in platform-economy names and e-commerce margin concerns weighed on sentiment.

  • $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ -3.04% — The internet giant’s Singapore SDR tracked Hong Kong weakness as gaming and fintech exposure faced valuation compression; thin SDR liquidity amplified the move.

  • $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ -5.79% — The consumer electronics and EV player’s SDR fell on EV delivery-margin concerns and profit-taking across the China EV supply chain.

  • $Singtel(Z74.SI)$ -7.66% — The telecom incumbent slumped on ex-dividend adjustment and profit-taking after its recent run to multi-month highs; the Optus stake-sale narrative failed to offset yield-proxy rotation.

  • $Prudential USD(K6S.SI)$ -10.52% — The UK insurer’s Singapore SDR collapsed on sterling weakness and concerns over its Asian operations’ new-business-value growth; the sharp drop triggered stop-loss selling in the thinly traded SDR.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

5. Australian Market – XJO gains 0.86% as copper-driven BHP record offsets bank weakness

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 0.86% to 8,731.70 over the week, as BHP's copper-powered surge to fresh all-time highs and strength in consumer staples offset ongoing weakness in the Big Four banks.

Industry leaders: Commercial Printing (+28.57%), Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (+22.64%), Communications Equipment (+17.85%), Technology Distributors (+16.06%), Soft Drinks (+15.38%) benefited from consumer reopening and defensive positioning.

7 Popular Stocks:

  • $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ +6.84% — The diversified retail conglomerate surged on strong first-half profit results, with net profit jumping to $1.6 billion (up 9.3% YoY). Bunnings and Kmart trading momentum continued to underpin confidence in its core retail exposure.

  • $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +4.28% — The diversified miner hit fresh all-time highs as copper earnings exceeded iron ore for the first time in company history. Copper now accounts for more than 50% of group earnings, with the stock up 34% YTD and 58% over twelve months as supply-demand dynamics for the red metal remain tight.

  • $VANGUARD TOTL ST MKT ETF-CDI(VTS.AU)$ +1.08% — The broad-market ETF tracked the XJO higher, offering diversified exposure across the ASX 200 as institutional inflows favored passive Australian equity strategies.

  • $Judo Capital Holdings Limited(JDOPA.AU)$ +1.97% — The Additional Tier 1 capital notes from the challenger bank advanced on resilient banking-sector yield demand and floating-rate distribution appeal in a rising-rate environment.

  • $SUNCORP NYR3QUT(SUNPJ.AU)$ +1.36% — The hybrid security from the financial services group gained on income-investor demand for franked floating-rate distributions and its defensive insurance-banking exposure.

  • $WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$ -1.5% — The Sydney-based lender continued to underperform as mortgage-pricing competition and deposit-funding cost pressures weighed on the banking sector.

  • $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ -1.37% — The business-focused bank tracked the sector lower, with commercial-property exposure and tighter SME credit conditions continuing to cap sentiment.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors

Friday (Most Important)

  • Jobs Report & Unemployment Rate (BLS)

  • Consumer Credit (Fed)

Tuesday (Key)

  • ADP Employment Report

  • JOLTS Job Openings

  • ISM Services PMI

  • Factory Orders

Monday

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • Construction Spending

Wednesday

  • Weekly Jobless Claims

  • Productivity & Labor Costs

2. Earnings Spotlight

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

# Computex Event: NVIDIA's Windows PCs, Can Microsoft Stage a Comeback?

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