ASTS: New Launch Diversification Does Not Fully Solve a Near-term 2026 Timing Issue
$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ is having a rough day after Blue Origin’s New Glenn exploded during a static fire test at LC-36.
Important to call out that no AST SpaceMobile satellite was on the rocket since this was a test firing with no payload. So the near-term launch catalyst hasn't changed with BB8, BB9 and BB10 still expected to launch in mid-June on a SpaceX Falcon 9.
The issue is the 2026 deployment schedule since AST needs multiple launch providers to hit its target of 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026 and New Glenn was expected to be a key part of that launch cadence.
Blue Origin was already dealing with an FAA investigation into the April second-stage failure which had introduced some uncertainty into this year’s launch plan but last night’s explosion adds a much larger problem because LC-36 is currently Blue Origin’s only operational New Glenn launch pad.
If the pad suffered significant damage (probably did) New Glenn’s return-to-service timeline will stretch meaningfully making it harder for AST to hit its 2026 satellite deployment target under the current launch plan.
Thats why the stock is selling off since AST can pursue additional launch providers over time but new launch diversification does not fully solve a near-term 2026 timing issue.
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