NVIDIA's Stock Price Movements
A Review of NVIDIA's Stock Price Movements Over the Past 16 Quarters
Deep News
24 minutes ago
Focus: Examining U.S. Stock Q1 2026 Earnings Reports
NVIDIA's earnings reports no longer shock global markets as they once did, with even traders growing accustomed to the pattern. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange reveals that in 6 of the past 7 quarters, and 14 of the past 20, option pricing has overestimated the stock's volatility following earnings releases. The average implied volatility before reports has been 6.7%, while the actual average stock price movement post-earnings has been only 4.6%.
Market sentiment may now be turning more rational: the implied volatility for the world's most valuable company's upcoming earnings peaked last Friday at its highest since March, cooling slightly this week alongside a pullback in the stock price. Current market estimates suggest post-earnings volatility has narrowed to 5.9%.
Since its March low, NVIDIA's stock has surged 34%, adding another trillion dollars to its market capitalization. This upcoming report carries heightened pressure for the AI giant led by Jensen Huang. Looking at recent trends, the stock has closed lower following each of its last three earnings announcements, with a significant 5.5% drop after the February report further fueling market caution.
Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy, stated in a phone interview: "It would take a massive earnings guidance beat, something on the order of a 50% increase, to drive a powerful rally. Given NVIDIA's history of strong numbers often being followed by a 'sell the news' reaction, I'm leaning towards selling option premiums and positioning with a moderately bearish bias."
Regardless of whether the earnings report ultimately proves positive or negative, its release is expected to clear a path for broader market direction. Brent Kochuba, an analyst at SpotGamma, noted that VIX futures prices remained elevated leading into this Thursday, influenced by the impending NVIDIA report.
He told clients on Tuesday: "We still believe a market pullback after options expiration is logical, and the main event right now is undoubtedly NVIDIA's earnings report tomorrow night."
NVIDIA's current stock price: $225.42, up $4.80, a gain of 2.18%.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
