To The Moon

The Pulse

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

$COIN just posted one of its ugliest quarters in recent memory—revenue down 31% YoY to $1.41B, a brutal EPS miss at -$0.17 vs. +$0.11 expected, and 700 layoffs (14% of staff) as the company pivots to AI. Operating margins collapsed from 45.5% to 15.4%. Yet beneath the wreckage, two engines are roaring: USDC stablecoin revenue surged 11% YoY to $305M, and institutional derivatives (post-Deribit acquisition) exploded 37%. The stock bled 3.5% to $199, testing critical support at the $200 psychological level. Is this a value trap—or the last chance to load before stablecoins and derivatives rewrite the narrative?

📊 Key News

• Revenue Miss: $1.41B (-31% YoY) vs. $1.49B consensus (~5.4% miss)

• EPS Disaster: -$0.17 actual vs. +$0.11 expected (major earnings miss)

• Margin Collapse: Operating margin 15.4% (down from 45.5% YoY); gross margin at 62.8% (-22.3pp YoY in Q1)

• Hidden Gems: USDC stablecoin revenue +11% YoY to $305M; institutional derivatives +37% (Deribit consolidation)

• Layoffs: 700 jobs cut, AI pivot announced

• Technical: Stock at $199, testing $200 support; RSI implied oversold (post-Oct '24 -15% precedent)

🌐 Who Else Benefits

$LG ESG USD CORP BOND(USDC.UK)$ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $MARA Holdings(MARA)$

🎯 Strategic Slam

Here's the contrarian play: $COIN's Q1 wreck is a cyclical bottom, not a structural collapse. The $305M stablecoin run-rate ($1.22B annualized) + 37% derivatives growth = a dual-engine model that survives crypto winters. The market's punishing the headline, not the fundamentals.

Buy-the-Dip Zone: $195–$200 (current support, RSI oversold) 2026 Price Target: $285–$310 (assumes 20% CAGR on stablecoin revenue, derivatives margin expansion to 25%, and crypto bull cycle resumption)

Risk Management: Stop-loss at $185 (breaks Oct '24 low). If $BTC reclaims $105K and stablecoin adoption accelerates (regulatory clarity), $COIN reprices to 4–5x sales vs. current 3.2x.

💬 The Question

Who else is loading the dip at $199, or waiting for $195 confirmation? Drop your entry price and 2026 PT below. 🐯👇

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. DYOR. I'm long $COIN at $202 avg.

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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