PCT: Micron & SanDisk Rocket. Is HBM supercycle accelerating?
PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk.
Yes, the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and broader memory supercycle appears to be accelerating in early 2026, driven by intense AI demand that has caused both Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) stocks to surge.
Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) Performance:
Micron: Micron has reported massive growth, with one report citing a 196% year-over-year revenue surge to approximately $24 billion in its fiscal second quarter of 2026, with shares experiencing a 571% gain over the past year. The company has fully sold out its HBM capacity for the entire calendar year 2026.
SanDisk: SanDisk (a subsidiary of Western Digital, focusing on NAND) has also seen its stock skyrocket, rising 287% in 2026 and over 2,800% over the past year, driven by high-bandwidth flash (HBF) technology tailored for AI inference.
Market Dynamics: Analysts note that AI demand is creating a structural shift in the memory market, transforming it into a more resilient, high-growth segment.
Is the HBM Supercycle Accelerating?
Sold-Out Capacity: Micron's HBM capacity is sold out for 2026, and the industry is already moving from HBM3E to HBM4 ramp-ups.
Demand Surging: UBS projected 2026 first-quarter DRAM prices to rise 62% and NAND prices 40%, indicating a severe supply crunch.
Structural Shift: The transition to AI workloads requires significantly more memory bandwidth per accelerator, meaning the HBM4 era is expected to further increase memory demand per AI unit.
Capacity Constraints: As HBM consumes more wafer capacity, it reduces supply available for traditional DRAM, accelerating price increases across the entire memory sector.
While the growth is unprecedented, some observers consider the current stock prices risky, noting that memory cycles can still be volatile despite the AI-driven structural changes.
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