To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 's recent performance has been explosive, with the stock closing at $278.39 on April 17, 2026—effectively a 32% gain since the start of April. With the next earnings report scheduled for May 5, 2026, the window for a strategic play is narrow but well-defined.

As I am holding AMD for long-term, I might not consider to sell, rather hold AMD, and play option to take advantage of current AMD bullish streak, but question is whether this run can last, so in this article I would like to share my thoughts.

Hold or Sell at $300?

Whether to hold or exit at $300 depends on your risk tolerance regarding the "Earnings Run-up" vs. "Sell the News" phenomenon.

• The Case for $300: AMD is currently trading at a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 106, but its forward P/E is significantly lower (around 30), suggesting that the market is pricing in massive growth from the MI450 AI chips and Data Center revenue.

• The Psychological Barrier: $300 is a major round-number resistance level. If AMD hits this before May 5, a pullback is common as traders lock in profits before the uncertainty of the earnings call.

• Long-Term Outlook: Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with a consensus "Buy" rating. Revenue is projected to grow by 34% in 2026, largely driven by the AI segment. For a true long-term investor, $300 may just be a milestone rather than a ceiling.

Bull Put Spread Strategy (Income Play)

If you believe the upward momentum will continue or at least consolidate above current levels until earnings, a Bull Put Spread can capture the elevated IV (Implied Volatility) typical of the pre-earnings period.

Potential Setup (Hypothetical)

With the stock at $278.39, you could look at the May 1 (Weekly) or May 15 expiration:

Theta Decay: This strategy benefits from time passing, which accelerates as you approach the May 5 earnings date.

IV Crush: You generally want to close this position before the earnings announcement. While IV is high now (which is good for selling spreads), the post-earnings "IV Crush" can be unpredictable if the stock gaps down significantly.

Key Considerations for your Plan

1. Earnings Date: May 5, 2026. This is the "kill switch" for most short-term bullish trades.

2. Risk Management: If you play the Bull Put Spread, ensure the total credit received justifies the $10 width of the spread (e.g., collecting $2.50 to $3.50 in premium to keep the risk-reward ratio balanced).

3. The "Gap" Risk: AMD has a history of aggressive moves post-earnings. If you hold a spread through the call, a 10% move against you could result in a total loss of the spread's value.

If $300 is your target, you might consider selling covered calls at that strike to earn extra income while waiting, or use the Bull Put Spread to profit from the current "winning streak" while keeping your downside capped.

Summary

AMD is currently in the midst of a historic 12-day winning streak, its longest since 2005. As of April 17, 2026, the stock has surged roughly 32% this month to close at $278.39. This rally is fueled by a structural revaluation of CPUs in the AI era and a cooling of geopolitical tensions.

1. Long-Term: Hold or Sell at $300?

Whether $300 is a "sell" signal depends on your timeframe:

• The Case to Hold: Wall Street is increasingly bullish. Firms like Piper Sandler and BofA Securities have officially raised their price targets to $300, citing the massive roadmap for the MI450 "Helios" chips and a transformative partnership with OpenAI. For long-term investors, the shift of AI workloads from simple queries to "agentic" actions makes AMD's server CPUs indispensable.

• The Case to Trim: $300 represents a massive psychological and technical resistance level. With a current trailing P/E over 100, the stock is "priced for perfection." If AMD hits $300 before the May 5 earnings, taking partial profits to lock in this 32% run is a standard risk-management move.

2. The Strategy: Bull Put Spreads

You can absolutely play a Bull Put Spread to capture the current momentum while protecting against a total reversal.

• Timing: AMD reports earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026.

• The Play: Sell a put at a strike where you see support (e.g., $260) and buy a lower put (e.g., $250) for protection.

• Why it works now: Implied Volatility (IV) typically rises heading into earnings. Selling spreads allows you to "sell" that high volatility.

• The Warning: The goal of this "streak" play should be to close the position before the May 5 announcement. Post-earnings "IV crush" and the potential for a "sell the news" reaction make holding through the call significantly riskier than the run-up itself.

Summary Verdict

If you are a long-term believer in the "CPU + GPU" AI bull case, Hold through $300 but expect volatility. For a tactical play, the Bull Put Spread is an effective way to generate income from the streak, provided you exit before the uncertainty of the May 5 earnings call.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think long-term investors should hold through $300 but play the volatility tactically with a Bull Put spread?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.