Gold Rises for 3rd Straight Week: A Dual Game Between Middle East Ceasefire and Domestic Inflation
💬 Gold traders — Are you riding this 3-week rally?
With ceasefire hopes and inflation in play, is gold setting up for a breakout or another fakeout? Let’s dive in.
As of the close on April 10, 2026, spot gold stood at $4,748.90 per ounce, gaining 1.5% for the week and rising for a third consecutive week.
Although gold has retreated nearly 10% since hitting an all-time high of $5,500 per ounce earlier this year, the recent rebound has helped restore market sentiment.
Kitco data shows that after the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, gold briefly spiked above $4,800 but failed to hold, signaling heavy upside resistance.
The current rebound is driven by two key pillars:
First, while geopolitical tensions have eased, the foundation remains fragile.
Christopher Vecchio, Chief Foreign Exchange and Futures Strategist at tastylive, noted the ceasefire “remains very fragile,” and it is unclear whether it will evolve into a lasting peace deal.
The gold market needs clear signs of de-escalation; otherwise, a return of conflict could trigger liquidity flight and renewed downward pressure on prices.
Second, inflation expectations have seesawed but have not spiraled out of control.
U.S. CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, below the 1% market forecast. Core CPI gained just 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.6% year-on-year.
The surge in gasoline prices was driven mainly by war-related supply chain disruptions and has not broadened into widespread inflation across the economy.
However, these same supportive factors are also capping gold’s upside.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that bullish momentum can only be fully restored once the Middle East conflict shows clear signs of ending.
Until then, inflation risks will dominate rate expectations — and markets are scaling back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Roukaya Ibrahim, Chief Commodity Strategist at BCA Research, argued that the current geopolitical risk is essentially an “inflation shock.”
If this shock begins to weigh on economic growth, gold’s safe-haven appeal will stand out again.
Looking ahead, short-term volatility will continue to revolve around headlines from ceasefire negotiations.
Economic data will be light next week, with markets focused on a slew of speeches from Fed officials.
TD Securities expects the full impact of the Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy has yet to be absorbed, and the Fed will prioritize growth over inflation in the second half, leaving room for two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.
ANZ and Goldman Sachs maintained their long-term bullish views, forecasting gold to rebound to $5,800 and $5,400 by year-end, respectively.
Key supports include resilient central bank buying (projected at ~850 tonnes in 2026), de-dollarization trends, and lagged effects from the Fed’s policy shift.
In summary, gold is at an intersection of “short-term noise” and “long-term trends.”
A smooth ceasefire and contained inflation could let gold consolidate between $4,750 and $5,000.
Renewed conflict or resurgent inflation expectations may trigger a retest of lower support levels.
For investors, the biggest risk right now is not direction — but sharp, news-driven volatility.
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- HilaryWilde·04-12TOPWatching $4800 closely – breakout would be massive! [看涨]LikeReport