To The Moon

Nvidia Has Gained Some Ground After Falling For Months. What Its Chart Says Now

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$   has fallen some 16% from its October high, but rebounded some 7% in recent days and is still up about 80% over the past 12 months even though it's trading lower Tuesday. Let's check out what its chart shows us.

Now, I see Nvidia at a crossroads technically. It's done little more than move sideways since last July, but let's look at its daily chart going back some 14 months and running through Thursday afternoon (April 2):

We will see that NVDA rallied from March 2025 until it hit a $212.19 all-time intraday high on Oct. 29.

But since then, the stock has developed a descending-triangle pattern of bearish reversal (shaded in yellow in the chart above). This is what happens when a stock makes lower highs over a period of time while finding support at the same level or close to it throughout.

Now, simple triangle or pennant patterns signal increased volatility, but are not considered directional – i.e., they don't indicate whether a stock will move up or down.

However, ascending and descending triangles can do so. In this case, Nvidia looks to be exhibiting a descending triangle, which is a bearish indicator.

That said, technical patterns can sometimes fail for one reason or another.

Even though Nvidia's chart is showing a bearish set-up, the stock has been trying to take back several key technical levels. These include NVDA's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line), its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted with a blue line) and its 200-day SMA (the red line).

Taking back these lines would matter more in a technical-analysis sense than would a bearish descending-triangle pattern that doesn't always work.

By contrast, swing traders tend to notice when stocks cross their 21-day EMAs, while portfolio and risk managers typically pay more attention and act more aggressively when a stock takes its 50- and 200-day SMAs.

In fact, many managers have shown that they place particular focus on a stock's 200-day line and often significantly altered their exposure when a name crossed that level.

Meanwhile, Nvidia has two apparent pivots here. With the stock's three key moving averages so close together (between $176.50 and $182.50), Nvidia's 200-day SMA of $179.80 could represent the company's upside pivot.

At the same time, Nvidia's downside pivot could be the indicated line of support at $165.

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