To The Moon

There is a Chinese saying - yue miao yue hei (see above) when translated literally it means “the more you try to explain or touch up a matter, the darker it becomes".

Actual meaning suggests - attempting to justify a mistake only makes it more obvious or creates further misunderstanding, similar to "making matters worse" or a cover-up.

That was exactly when transpired on 01 April 2026 at 9pm ET (or 02 Apr 2026, 9am Singapore time) when Trump addressed US citizens about Iran invasion.

Evening Address - Overall.

Instead of providing clear answers, Trump’s speech made investors more worried about the risks of war, causing markets to drop in response.

As of 02 Apr 2026 - 5pm Singapore time

Oil spiked, Asian equities fell, and US futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all turned lower as traders priced in prolonged disruption, higher inflation, and no clear exit path. (see above)

What He Uttered That Was So Wrong ?

(1) Victory Declaration:

The President claimed that US has achieved "swift, decisive, overwhelming victories" over the past 4 weeks, stating that Iran’s navy has been destroyed and its air force is in ruins.

• Everyone knows this is a lie. US did not anticipate that Iran will mount a counterattack on its neighbours (US allies), creating “regional” unrest.

• There is definite pressure from other countries in the region towards US, as a result.

• That is why it is still (for the lack of a better word) “stuck” with Project Epic Fury 5 weeks on.

(2) "Finish the Job".

• While claiming that core strategic objectives are nearly met, he announced that the US would continue to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next 2 to 3weeks to finalize the mission.

• This is the “clearest” sign that US market will hang precariously on a thin thread for the coming 3 weeks as the Trump administration (for the 1st time) plan a proper exit-strategy or a full on assault.

(3) Neutralizing Nuclear Threat:

• Trump argued the invasion was necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

• He claimed that US has "obliterated" nuclear sites with B-2 bombers and is monitoring the remains via intense satellite surveillance.

• Wasn’t this what he & Hegseth proclaimed back in 22 Jun 2025, when they first bombed Iran nuclear facility ? If it was (as claimed then) a successful mission, why the need for Act 2 ?

This brings to question the quality & accuracy of US military intelligence and also anything that this man utters, can be taken as a “source of truth” ?

Historic Mistake.

This is not the first time US intelligence has been mistaken, and it will not be the last.

We only need to look back to end 2002 to early 2003, for a similar mistake made.

The difference in narrative was - Iraq was the bad guy.

• On 05 Feb 2003, there was a televised address from White House’s Cross Hall, where “proofs” were made public about the buildup of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).

• US issued a final warning to Iraq to disarm or face the consequences.

• Only difference between then and now, was President W. Bush Jr followed protocol over UN Resolution 1441, had the backing of the UN, followed by the televised “justification”, before launching the attack.

• After the leader was toppled and the dust settled, existence of WMDs was never proven to be true.

(4) State of US Economy.

The President bulldozed the perceived weakness of US economy, characterized by Wall Street analysts as suffering from war-time inflation, by labeling it the "hottest" in the world:

• "A Dead and Crippled Country": He claimed that he inherited a "dead & crippled" economy from the Biden administration and transformed it into the strongest in history within a year.

• Clearly, he has forgotten that US economy was already failing before his 2nd term because he mishandled the Covid crisis during his 1st term.

• "No Inflation" Claim: Despite US Labour Department reporting a 2.4% CPI increase in February 2026 (see below) and gas prices exceeding $4.00 a gallon due to the conflict, he asserted that he had created an economy with "no inflation". Maybe in his dreams ?

US consumer price index (CPI) for February 2026

• GDP & Deficits: He cited a 5.4% GDP growth rate and claimed that federal deficits had been cut to "levels that nobody's ever seen before," arguing that the country has "never been better prepared economically" to handle the costs of a military campaign. (see below)

US's Q4 2025 GDP - 13 Mar 2026

• The president must have been hiding in the White House bunker so much so that he has missed the latest US’s GDP for Q4 2025, released on 13 Mar 2026.

• Q4 GDP is down by -50% from 1st preliminary estimate of 1.40%, reported back in 20 Feb 2026.

• The least Trump could do was fact-check with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who would surely provide him the accurate numbers, no ?

The spouting of fakes news in US politics, have never been so blatant and in-your-face, until now and televised some more.

The Aftermath.

The speech’s narrative of a “strong” US economy and “controlled” escalation did not match that reaction, which is a credibility gap, not a partisan read.

His rhetoric also deepened the perception of cruelty, not leadership.

Phrases like “reduce Iran back to the Stone Age” normalize massive civilian and infrastructure destruction as a bargaining tool.

That is not a moral hyperbole; it’s a signal that human cost is secondary to leverage, which is structurally similar to how Russia has framed its war in Ukraine: break the enemy, externalize the fallout, and let others manage the spillover.

Trump’s US singlehandedly created the crisis; EU and other countries will now have to clean up the mess.

When the strongest military power escalates a conflict, financial markets tighten, and regional instability rises, the long‑term costs—refugees, reconstruction, diplomatic containment—fall primarily on allies.

That is not a policy preference; it’s a description of how the burden is actually distributed.

Positive News.

The only partial relief came from the Straits of Hormuz reopening angle. (see above)

Later reporting suggested Iran could reopen the Strait conditions bearing.

That did not resolve the war, but it eased the most extreme supply‑shock scenario, which is why crude eased and US stocks pared some losses on Thu, 02 Apr 2026 just before 11am US ET. (see below)

US 3 major indexes - 02 Apr 2026

Make no mistake, US market’s reaction was not about optimism; it was about the marginal reduction of an extreme‑risk case.

What’s Next ?

Personally, I think US market’s outlook for next few weeks remains anchored to risk, not rhetoric.

If the Hormuz‑related hope erodes or the rhetoric hardens, futures will likely retest their post‑address lows because the underlying risk‑off stance hasn’t changed.

If the reopening signal strengthens and the White House seems less inclined to escalate, there could be a partial relief rally.

It will still be fragile “rally”, because Trumps’s speech did not resolve the core tension - that is the gap between Trump’s narrative and the market’s risk‑pricing.

The practical takeaway for next week and thereafter is straight forward - US market behavior will likely be driven less by normal earnings logic and more by headlines on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and any hint that Trump is willing to de-escalate.

As long as that remains unresolved, markets will keep (a) treating the conflict as an inflation shock first and (b) a military story second. So, 3 weeks more of volatility is not far-fetched.

Will continue to sit on the fence and closely watch - if there is really a “must buy” opportunity. If not, I rather wait, 3 weeks is a long time - anything “bad” could still happen.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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