To The Moon

This week, Australian shares continued their last week's upward trend, with $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ rising 1.27% to close at 8,579.50 points in the past 5 days.

1. $Alcoa Corp(AAI.AU)$ +18.37%

Top drivers:

• Middle East aluminum supply shock: Iranian strikes damaged major Gulf smelters (Al Taweelah and Alba), causing outages and tightening global supply (Middle East ~9% of world production); LME aluminum prices spiked 4–10% in sessions, hitting four-year highs.

• Direct beneficiary as non-Gulf producer: Alcoa positioned to gain from higher prices, reduced competition, and potential margin expansion; peers like Century Aluminum also surged sharply.

• Commodity rally tailwinds: Broader industrial metals strength amid geopolitical risk premium and weaker USD elements in sessions.

• Momentum and analyst attention: Strong volume, options activity, and expectations of earnings upgrades from elevated aluminum pricing.

Key Latest Data：

• TTM P/E: 16.11–16.49 (positive, reflecting 2025 recovery);

• P/S: ~1.47;

• 50-day MA: ~61.27 (stock broke above during rally, trading in the $63–71 range with strong momentum).

2. $NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD(NST.AU)$ +18.11%

Top drivers:

• Major on-market share buyback: Announcement of up to A$500 million (~1.6% of issued capital) buyback, signaling confidence, undervaluation, and potential EPS accretion; buyback expected to start ~April 23.

• Production outlook reaffirmed: FY2026 gold production guidance maintained at above 1.5 Moz, with KCGM mill expansion supporting output trajectory.

• Analyst upgrade momentum: UBS upgraded to Buy (from Sell), citing asset quality, divestment potential, capital returns, and record underlying EBITDA/EPS; stock seen at discount to ~A$27+ targets.

• Gold sector tailwinds: Broader lift from gold price rebound amid Middle East geopolitical risks.

Key Latest Data：

• TTM P/E: negative (–141 to –164 range, reflecting prior cycle losses; forward expectations positive);

• P/S: ~14.5–16.55;

• 50-day MA: ~4.61 (price broke above it recently with strong momentum stock traded ~4.92–4.97 on March 26, with further gains into April 2 around A$21–23 levels post-buyback news).

3. $Dundee Precious Metals Inc(DPM.AU)$ +10.77%

Top drivers:

• Technical breakout: Stock crossed above 200-day MA (~C$41.20), sparking buying interest and momentum (recent sessions showed 3–6% gains on volume).

• Analyst upgrades and raised targets: Multiple brokers lifted targets (Canaccord to C$70, RBC to C$63, others to C$55–61); consensus “Buy” with average target ~C$56.

• Strong operating track record carryover: Record 2025 results (high FCF/NPAT), Chelopech mine life extended, and Vareš ramp-up progressing toward full rates by end-2026.

• Gold price support: Benefited from sector-wide safe-haven flows amid regional tensions.

4. $SOUTH32 LTD(S32.AU)$ +9.68%

Top drivers:

• Commodity price strength: Diversified exposure to aluminum, copper, silver, and other metals benefited from broader rally (aluminum supply concerns + base metals demand).

• Operational resilience: Recent quarterly/production updates showed gains in alumina, manganese, and aluminum output; H1 FY2026 supported by silver/alumina performance.

• Capital management signals: Ongoing share buyback program elements and execution confidence.

Key Latest Data：

• Trading around A$4.40–4.62 (with intraday volatility);

• Analysts’ average 12-month target ~A$4.80 (modest upside).

• H1 FY2026 revenue resilience (~US$2.8B range in prior periods) with forward growth from key assets.

5. $NEWMONT CORP-CDI(NEM.AU)$ +8.50%

Top drivers:

• Gold price recovery: Rebound in spot gold driven by safe-haven demand amid Iran-related geopolitical tensions; directly supports margins and cash flows for the world’s largest gold producer.

• Earnings anticipation: Positive setup ahead of Q1 2026 results (call ~April 23); higher gold prices expected to offset any volume softness.

• Sector leadership: Captured broad gold miner rally as investors bought the dip after earlier volatility.

Key Latest Data：

• Forward P/E attractive (~11–14x range in recent context);

• Trading momentum around $108–114.