To The Moon

So Far.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ - US market’s hottest stock in the artificial intelligence (AI) space, and last year’s standout megacap tech performer, is slumping closer to bear market territory this week.

Even Wall Street is unsure why ?

‘Thankfully’ GOOG is not the worst performer of the Magnificent Seven cohort, it’s the “best” in the worst of US market situation. (see below)

As of 27 Mar 2026 endday

As of 25 Mar 2026:

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is still engulfed in a -34.18% drawdown from 28 Oct 2025 peak of $542.07.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ at $525.72 (as of 27 Mar 2026) has given back -33.45% of its value based on its peak of $790 (12 Aug 2025).

Tumble From Grace.

Since April 2025.

• GOOG’s pullback follows a fantastic gain of more than +135% from its Liberation Day trough of $146.58 (08 Apr 2025) to its peak of $344.90 (02 Feb 2026), adding around $2.3 trillion in market value along the way. (see below)

• It held its ‘highs’ throughout even when the broader rotation from tech to industrials that marked the early weeks of the year.

As of 26 Mar 2026 endday

Year-To-Date.

Its decline from mid-February 2026 has been sharp and abrupt, evident in following benchmarks: (see above)

• GOOG has dipped more than -15% from its closing high.

• It is also down -17% from intraday record of $349.00 set in early February 2026, approaching the 20% threshold typically used to define a bear market.

Two Weeks Ago.

On Tue, 24 Mar 2026, GOOG fell through -3.9%, its biggest single-day slump since June 2025.

On Wed, 25 Mar 2026, the additional -0.1% pullback, was also below $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$’s +1.3% gain and Magnificent 7 index’s +1.4% bump.

The Catalysts.

There doesn’t seem to be a singular catalyst, solely responsible for GOOG’s downwards trend.

Rise of Hyperscalers.

The most probable reason is GOOG’s intention to spend $185 billion this year on its AI data centre, double its 2025 capital spending, rattling investors.

Other tech giants - Microsoft(MSFT, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$, $Oracle(ORCL)$ suffered similar investors’ backlash after announcing increase in their 2026 Capex to build out their AI data centres.

Corporate Bond Research company Gimme Credit, Analyst, Dave Novosel suggested the capex plans will likely mean GOOG will generate negative cash flow over the course of 2026.

The tally came amid GOOG’s impressive Q4 2025 earnings report on 4 Feb 2026, that included a record annual revenue tally of $403 billion, that consisted of:

• A near +50% increase in GOOG’s cloud sales.

• A staggering $60 billion in ad sales from its YouTube division.

So far, GOOG has raised around $32 billion from an early February 2026 bond sale, including a rare 100-year offering, to help fund its capex-intensive expenditure.

GOOG CEO Sundar Pichai has said at an event in India last month that:

• AI is 10x faster and larger than the industrial revolution.

• The investment makes sense given the progress in the technology seen and the opportunities on top of it.

Other Factors.

Rising energy costs, alongside trickier corporate credit markets and surging Treasury bond yields, could eat into the group Alphabet’s impressive profit margins, that hover around 32% currently.

• Rising energy costs will add to GOOG’s AI data centre and related infrastructure construction costs - as suppliers’ costs of production have increased across the board.

• Shift from AI-driven optimism to broader credit stress since early March 2026 has made GOOG’s future bonds issue a margin drag. Investors will demand higher "all-in yields" to compensate for risks & uncertainties, pushing spreads wider even for top-tier technology issuers like GOOG.

• US 10-year treasury yield jumped from approx. 3.96% pre-Iran war (late Feb) to 4.43% (as of 27 Mar 2026), a 48 bps surge - directly hiking the risk-free benchmark for GOOG’s long-dated debt pricing.

• Higher yields also inflate GOOG’s depreciation and discount rates on massive capex assets, eroding reported earnings even if ad/cloud revenue holds firm.

The stock’s decline also dovetails with a US government appeal of a federal court ruling in September 2024, that rejected tougher remedies to the assertion that GOOG holds a monopoly in online search.

GOOG plans to challenge portions of the ruling that compel it to share search data with rivals.

It’s not all doom and gloom:

• One bright spark is GOOG’s lucrative deal as $Apple(AAPL)$’s default search engine.

• The other being the removed the risk of having to sell its Chrome browser.

Will GOOG’s Q1 2026 earnings, slated for late April 2026 release, provide a floor for the struggling stock or better still, strike another spark, giving the declining stock a much-needed jolt ?

According to FactSet:

• GOOG’s Q1 2026 earnings are likely to fall by around -8% from 2025.

• This comes even as forecast revenue rises more than +18%, coming in just under $107 billion.

Although above earnings prediction is a mixed bag forecast, that does not mean its broader fundamentals aren’t compelling.

GOOG’s Advantages.

GOOG’s advances in AI are powering solid growth in search, and offsetting fears that its Gemini agent would cannibalize its biggest revenue contributor.

The group is also less reliant on expensive $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ processors to power its data center buildouts, given the development of in-house Trillium chips used to train Gemini 3.1.

This helps the company to avoid delivery delays that often come with NVDA chips.

For now, GOOG is also notably cheaper than it was at the start of the year, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.8, compared to a reading of 28.9 in late December 2025.

According to FactSet forecasts:

• Full year earnings growth will slow in 2026.

• However, it will accelerate back to high double-digits over the next 3 years.

Tigress Research, Analyst, Ivan Feinseth argues:

GOOG is increasingly levered to multiple durable growth engines.

• Its AI-centric investment trends that will drive revenue, cash flow, and profit growth over the coming years.

• At the same time, GOOG’s tried & tested AI-powered ads on Google Search & YouTube, along with better ways to understand user intent, are sustaining double-digit revenue growth - making ads more profitable.

GOOG’s early and heavy spending on AI technology & new data center deals is creating a long-term advantage that will support Gemini & Google Cloud growth for years.

Recent pullback reflects US market is digesting heavy AI spending, rising costs, and fears that investment is outpacing near‑term monetization, instead of material deterioration in fundamentals.

Even a mostly negative ruling and even some punitive damages based on the current litigation will not be a long term factor.

Feinseth lifted his 12-month price target on the group to $415 in February 2026, a level that suggests a potential gain of nearly +44% from current levels.

Technical Analysis.

After all that has been said, where is GOOG now - technically ? (see below)

Is it ‘prime’ for dip-purchase with Trump claiming that he is done with the assault on Iran?

As usual, I defer to the 3 technical indicators of (a) Simple Moving Averages of 20-day, 50-day and 200-day, (b) MACD and (c) RSI.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

GOOG's closed out Tue, 31 Mar 2026 at $283.86 /share; below 20-day SMA ($304.15) and 50-day SMA ($316.70).

This signals short-term bearish momentum and likely to test its 200-day SMA ($261.71) support next.

Mid-term (3-6 months) outlook remains cautious; unless Q1 2026 earnings helps in rebound toward $290 level.

Long-term uptrend holds as stock price remains above the 200-day SMA, pointing to a possible $350+ recovery by year-end on AI/cloud strength.

MACD.

The MACD line (-4.43) is positioned below the Signal line (-3.82), with both metrics deep within negative territory and below the Zero line.

This indicator confirms a dominant & aggressive downtrend, indicating that the asset is currently facing intense selling pressure.

It also reveal a breakdown in price action, highlighted by the widening gap between the MACD and its EMA.

As these lines diverge marginally a downward direction, it signals that negative momentum is slowing and not actively expanding.

GOOG remains under technical pressure, as the gap between the MACD and Signal line reflects decelerating downside momentum.

The negative divergence (-0.61) also signals - selling pressure continues to ease, suggesting that a definitive bottom has form.

RSI.

At “32.30”, GOOG’s RSI borders the “oversold” terrority and may be undervalued relative to its recent trading range just before the US-Iran war begins.

As per GOOG’s SMA and MACD, it will likely to remain in tight bearish price range until either (a) its 2026 quarterly earnings or (b) a finalized peace treaty is signed between US-Iran.

Realistically, it will take time for operations to return to a ‘normal’ state.

My Viewpoints (mine only)

I feel there are 2 contradictions in the post just-shared.

(1) Price Target Divergence.

The “The 12-month price target of $415” appears disconnected from “other factors of rising energy cost, surging Treasury yields” etc. that are chipping away GOOG’s profits.

There is a need to revise the ‘unrealistic’ $415 /share - estimated on 19 Feb 2026 way before US-Iran war broke out (28 Feb 2026) and is still ongoing 5 weeks later.

(2) Monopoly Litigation Neutrality:

The assumption that even a "mostly negative ruling" or "punitive damages" from federal antitrust litigation will not be a "long term factor" ignores the potential structural impact on GOOG’s core business.

In the post, GOOG is still in the process of challenging rulings that compel it to share search data with rivals.

A negative outcome could ‘fatally” alter GOOG’s "durable growth engines" mentioned elsewhere in the text.

Conquering Autonomous Driving.

In addition, the shared post also missed sharing GOOG’s success in autonomous driving.

On 27 Mar 2026, TechCrunch shared that Waymo (GOOG’swholly-owned subsidiary) has achieved 500,000 paid robotaxi rides every week across 10 US cities - an accelerated commercial expansion. (see below)

In less than 2 years, Waymo’s average weekly paid robotaxi trips have grown tenfold, from 50,000 per week (May 2024) to 500,000 per week (present).

Over that 2-year timespan, Waymo has expanded within its initial markets of Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles to Austin, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando.

The 7 cities in the Sun Belt were all added in 2025 (just).

This is the commercial success that eluded $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$.

It is still struggling to get even one commercial license to allow it to operate its robotaxi in US - unsupervised.

Waymo’s continual success in the US will be unrivalled. It is only natural that Waymo begins its global expansion, beginning with Europe - strike while the iron is hot.

Waymo’s success provides a "real-world" flywheel that bolsters GOOG's core AI and mapping advantages, leveraging millions of miles of driving data to refine Gemini’s spatial intelligence.

This integration effectively moves GOOG’s technology from the digital screen into the physical economy, positioning the group to dominate future mobility services.

My strategy will be to keep a tight watch over the US-Iran conflict. A turn for the worse could trigger market sell off, presenting a “buy the dip” opportunity.

Besides that, I will wait to see what happens on Mon, 06 Apr 2026 when Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to open up the Straits of Hormuz expires. What’s your strategy ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• NVDA hits $300 by end 2026 ? The odds ?

• META crashes in a Weak US Market this week ?

• Rare Earth Wars: MP vs ALOY, the Better Buy ?

• Do you think Trump’s claim of ceasefire will hold or its just a smoke screen ’?

• Do you think GOOG will slip further, triggering a “Buy” opportunity.

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents