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💬 Oil traders & energy investors: How will the Strait of Hormuz closure reshape global supply? Which producer will be the biggest winner/loser? Drop your take!

The oil market has seen extreme volatility since the start of 2026. Escalating conflicts between Iran, the U.S., and Israel have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. In mid-March, international benchmark Brent crude surged to near $120 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on March 12 that global crude oil production has fallen by at least 8 million barrels per day (bpd), with major exporters including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia all recording significant declines.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$

Meanwhile, OPEC’s March monthly report forecasts “healthy” growth in global oil demand for 2026, rising by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, with non-OECD countries contributing about 1.2 million bpd of that increase. Against a backdrop of tightening supply, unresolved geopolitical risks, and forward markets signaling higher prices, the current production capacities and response capabilities of the world’s top oil producers have become critical variables shaping the future energy landscape.

Below is the ranking of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries, based on full-year 2024 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), including crude oil and other liquid fuels.

1. United States

Daily Production: 22.84 million barrels

The U.S. has been the world’s largest oil producer for seven consecutive years, with 2024 output reaching 22.84 million bpd. As a classic “swing producer,” its production adjusts flexibly with market prices. Texas is the nation’s top oil-producing state, churning out more than three times the volume of New Mexico, the second-largest producer. Beyond production, the U.S. is also one of the world’s largest oil consumers. EIA data projects U.S. petroleum product demand will hit 20.59 million bpd in 2025, an 18-year high. Amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, the U.S.—as a major consumer—will play a key role in stabilizing global markets through its strategic petroleum reserves and domestic production flexibility.

2. Saudi Arabia

Daily Production: 10.88 million barrels

Saudi Arabia produced 10.88 million bpd in 2024, making it the undisputed largest producer within OPEC. The kingdom holds 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves and is the top global oil exporter. Its oil and gas sector accounts for roughly 40% of GDP and over 70% of export earnings. In March 2026, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz forced Saudi Arabia to cut daily output from a record 10 million barrels to 8 million—a 20% reduction. This unexpected cut further tightened global supplies and underscored the direct impact of geopolitical conflict on traditional major producers.

3. Russia

Daily Production: 10.53 million barrels

Russia’s 2024 oil production stood at 10.53 million bpd, with most reserves located in Western Siberia, the Ural-Volga region, and along the Caspian Sea coast. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, EU, G7, and Australian oil embargoes have accelerated a shift in Russia’s export focus eastward. Data shows Europe accounted for over 50% of Russia’s crude exports in 2021, but that share fell to below 6% by 2024, while China and India together took more than 92%. At the same time, logistical bottlenecks and limited storage and transportation capacity continue to pressure production. Going forward, Russia will prioritize developing hard-to-recover reserves in the Arctic to maintain long-term supply capacity.

4. Canada

Daily Production: 599.7 million barrels

Canada’s oil output reached 599.7 million bpd in 2024, an increase of 23.7 million bpd from the previous year. The vast majority of its proven reserves are in oil sands concentrated in Alberta. Canada’s energy exports are highly dependent on the U.S.—in 2023, 60% of U.S. crude imports came from Canada, up from 33% in 2013. To diversify trade risks, Canada is actively expanding energy cooperation with emerging Asian markets. The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion came online in 2024. Starting in April 2026, Canada will add 140,000 bpd under an IEA-coordinated release plan to ease supply shortages caused by the conflict. Notably, as the only net exporter in the G7, Canada maintains no strategic petroleum reserve.

5. China

Daily Production: 5.33 million barrels

China produced 5.33 million bpd of oil in 2024. As the world’s most populous country and second-largest oil consumer, China has been the largest net oil importer since 2014, bringing in over 11 million barrels per day—more than 70% of its consumption—primarily from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. In early 2026, China’s imports surged sharply. To mitigate supply risks and price volatility, China has built a massive strategic petroleum reserve, estimated by Kpler at around 1.2 billion barrels.

6. Iran

Daily Production: 4.62 million barrels

Iran’s oil output hit 4.62 million bpd in 2024, a significant jump from 3.66 million bpd in 2023, surpassing Iraq to become OPEC’s second-largest producer. The country holds the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves. Plagued by U.S. sanctions and regional disputes, Iran’s energy sector has long been under pressure, and current production remains below the 4.95 million bpd level seen in 2017 before a new round of sanctions. In February 2026, as conflicts with the U.S. and Israel escalated, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In mid-March, the Trump administration temporarily issued a 30-day waiver allowing some Iranian crude already at sea to complete transactions in an effort to calm oil prices.

7. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Daily Production: 4.51 million barrels

The UAE produced 4.51 million bpd in 2024, a notable increase from 4.16 million bpd the year before. Its 111 billion barrels of proven reserves are mostly concentrated in Abu Dhabi. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company raised crude production capacity to 4.85 million bpd in May 2024 and plans to reach 5 million bpd by 2027. However, in March 2026, drone attacks and the Strait of Hormuz closure reportedly cut the UAE’s daily output in half. This incident once again proved that even Gulf producers with well-developed infrastructure are not immune to regional conflicts.

8. Iraq

Daily Production: 4.50 million barrels

Iraq’s 2024 oil production was 4.50 million bpd, a slight year-on-year increase, but it was overtaken by Iran to become OPEC’s third-largest producer. The country holds 145.02 billion barrels of proven reserves, accounting for 11.7% of the global total. In March 2026, as regional tensions flared, daily output from major southern Iraqi oilfields plummeted from normal levels to 800,000 barrels. Large fields including Rumaila and Zubair were forced to cut production, while export disruptions and inventory buildups further constrained output. Given oil revenues’ central role in Iraq’s economy, prolonged shipping blockages could trigger broader production cuts and fiscal stress.

9. Brazil

Daily Production: 4.28 million barrels

Brazil produced 4.28 million bpd in 2024, roughly flat with the previous year. IEA data shows Brazil’s total primary energy consumption has nearly doubled over the past decade, with oil and other liquid fuels making up the largest share of its energy mix. Brazil is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer in the coming years and is expected to be a major contributor to global oil supply growth in 2024. According to Bloomberg, Petrobras is ramping up production at existing fields while actively exploring for new reserves. Additionally, Brazil boasts one of the world’s lowest-carbon offshore oil industries, giving it a unique advantage amid the low-carbon transition.

10. Kuwait

Daily Production: 2.78 million barrels

Kuwait ranked 10th globally with 2.78 million bpd in 2024. In recent years, the country has sought to restore production to 3.5 million bpd, but internal political disputes have delayed critical infrastructure projects. The oil and gas sector accounts for about 50% of Kuwait’s GDP and roughly 90% of export earnings. In February 2026, Kuwait Oil Company awarded a $1.5 billion contract to SLB for the development of the Mutriba oilfield, offering hope for future production growth. However, escalating threats from Iran have sent Kuwait’s daily output crashing to around 500,000 barrels. Drone attacks on refineries, combined with shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, led state-owned Kuwait Oil Company to declare force majeure. Officials estimate it will take three to four months to rebuild production capacity once security is restored.

Conclusion

From North America to the Persian Gulf, from Siberia to the South Atlantic, the fates of the world’s top 10 oil producers have never been so closely intertwined. The energy market in the first quarter of 2026 has made clear that geopolitical risks are reshaping supply dynamics in unprecedented ways: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not only hit Gulf producers but also exposed vulnerabilities in the global oil supply chain.

For investors, the core contradiction in today’s oil market is no longer short-term supply-demand mismatches, but a revaluation of long-term structural supply constraints and geopolitical risk premiums. Against a backdrop of lingering war clouds, blocked shipping lanes, and constrained producer capacities, every production adjustment by the top 10 oil nations could trigger ripple effects across international oil prices. In the months ahead, markets will remain focused on these key countries’ supply recovery capabilities and policy responses.

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