To The Moon

📊 My Earnings Watchlist: CHWY, PDD, CCL 🚀

Next week is interesting because I’m not just looking for hype — I’m looking for setups where expectations, fundamentals (FA), and positioning can create opportunity.

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🐶 Chewy (CHWY) — Quiet Compounder with Earnings Catalyst

📅 Earnings Timing & Estimates

• Earnings date: March 25, 2026 

• Expected EPS: around $0.28–$0.31 

• Revenue growth: steady mid-single digit (~7–8%) 

💡 Why I Like It

I like CHWY because it’s not flashy — it’s predictable and sticky.

The key strength:

• Subscription model (Autoship) = recurring revenue

• Pet spending = defensive (people don’t cut pet food easily)

• Strong history of beating earnings estimates 

Even last quarter:

• EPS beat expectations

• Revenue ~$3.12B, above estimates 

🧠 My Thesis

This is a “slow growth but consistent execution” story.

Market sometimes punishes it because:

• Growth isn’t explosive

• Guidance can be conservative

But I see it differently:

👉 If they beat + guide stable = upside surprise

⚠️ Risk

• Weak guidance (this stock drops hard on outlook)

• Low excitement = muted reaction

🔥 My Play Mindset

I’m watching for:

• Earnings beat + stable guidance → upside move

• Overreaction dip → buy opportunity

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🛒 PDD (Pinduoduo) — Growth Monster Still Undervalued

(Even if not reporting same exact day, I’m grouping it because it’s part of my earnings cycle watchlist)

💡 Why I Like It

PDD is one of the strongest growth stories globally right now.

Key drivers:

• Temu global expansion

• China e-commerce recovery

• Ultra-low-cost model = strong user growth

This is not just a China play anymore —

👉 It’s becoming a global disruption platform

📊 Fundamentals (FA)

• High revenue growth (still double-digit)

• Strong margins vs peers

• Cash-rich balance sheet

Compared to peers:

• More efficient than Alibaba

• Faster growth than JD

🧠 My Thesis

I like PDD because:

👉 It’s a growth stock still trading like a value stock

Market concerns:

• China macro

• Regulation

But:

👉 Earnings keep proving strength

⚠️ Risk

• Geopolitics

• China sentiment swings

🔥 My Play Mindset

• Strong earnings = breakout continuation

• Any dip = accumulation

This is one of those names I don’t want to miss long term.

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🚢 Carnival (CCL) — Reopening + Momentum Play

📅 Earnings & Estimates

• Earnings date: March 27, 2026 

• Expected EPS: ~$0.18 

• Revenue estimate: ~$6.1B 

💡 Why I Like It

CCL is a recovery + momentum + consumer demand story.

What stands out:

• Strong booking trends

• Travel demand still resilient

• लगातार earnings beats (very important)

Carnival has:

👉 Beaten estimates consistently in recent quarters 

📊 Fundamentals

• Revenue growing (but slower than earnings)

• Margins improving

• Debt still high but improving

🧠 My Thesis

This is not just a reopening play anymore —

👉 It’s turning into a profitability story

Even better:

• EPS growth is accelerating faster than revenue

That’s a sign of:

👉 Operating leverage kicking in

⚠️ Risk

• Macro slowdown (travel is cyclical)

• Fuel costs / geopolitics

• Debt load

🔥 My Play Mindset

• If earnings beat again → momentum continues

• If weak → sharp drop (high beta stock)

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⚖️ My Overall Strategy for These 3

🎯 Why I Like This Combo

Each stock plays a different role:

• CHWY → defensive + stable earnings

• PDD → high growth + expansion

• CCL → cyclical + momentum

So I’m not betting on one narrative —

👉 I’m diversifying across different market themes

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🧠 My Core Thinking

I’m not just trading earnings blindly.

I look at:

• Expectations vs reality

• Historical earnings reaction

• Positioning (overbought / oversold)

Because earnings is not about “good or bad” —

👉 it’s about better or worse than expected

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🚀 Final Take

Going into next week:

• CHWY → I want a quiet beat + stable outlook

• PDD → I want continued dominance in growth

• CCL → I want another strong beat + demand confirmation

If all 3 deliver:

👉 This could be a strong short-term trading window

If not:

👉 I’m ready to buy dips selectively

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