To The Moon

Last week, the market was absolutely dominated by two buzzwords: TACO and HALO.

After President Trump told CBS that the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much," significantly ahead of its original timeline.The market's reaction was instant: oil retreated, AI rebounded, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ jumped 1.01% to 6,878.88.

Simultaneously, long-term capital aggressively chased the HALO strategy. Investors locked into "AI-proof" infrastructure with massive technological barriers and decade-long replacement cycles. Top targets included:

• 🧠 AI Chips: Persistent shortage beneficiaries like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ .

• ⚙️ Semiconductor Equipment: High-barrier, long-cycle suppliers like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ , $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ , and $Lam Research(LRCX)$

• 🔋 Data Center Infrastructure: The power and cooling backbone of AI, featuring $Equinix(EQIX)$ , $Vertiv Holdings LLC(VRT)$ and $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ .

But the narrative just hit a wall. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ , who actively promoted the HALO strategy just a month ago, executed a rare strategic reversal—they are now proactively shorting overbought HALO constituents.

In this article, let's unpack the post-war playbook and examine the data behind Wall Street abruptly hitting the brakes on heavy assets. 👇

🌮 TACO in Action: What's the Trade When the War Ends?

TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") is the ultimate behavioral finance play: buying the market dip triggered by aggressive political rhetoric, betting that an eventual policy U-turn will fuel a sharp recovery.

If we apply this momentum to the actual end of the Iran war and the reopening of Hormuz, here is where the smart money may be looking:

• 🛢️ Short Oil: The clearest post-war expression. May $W&T Offshore(WTI)$ has already dropped $4.23 to $92.75. A quick peace means heavily squeezed oil longs and a dramatic price plunge.

• 🚢 Long "Oil Offshoots": High oil prices punish airlines, transports, and cruise lines. Keep an eye on operators like $Carnival(CCL)$ —fuel is only 2-4% of their spending, and they enjoy a massive demographic tailwind from retiring Boomers.

• ✂️ Disinflation & Rate Cuts: Lower oil plus soft US payrolls equals a dovish Fed. The cleanest plays here are Fed fund futures and short-dated bonds.

• 🌍 Global Stocks Rebound: Energy-starved markets have been crushed. A return to energy stability breathes new life into the $Nikkei 225(NYKEF)$ (Japan) and the $Global X Dax Germany ETF(DAX)$ (Germany).

• 💵 Short the USD: The dollar rallied ~4% during the conflict. Peace unwinds this safe-haven premium, making the Euro and Yen obvious beneficiaries.

🛑 3% Premium Warning: Why Did Goldman Abandon HALO?

Just a month ago, capital was flooding indiscriminately into energy, industrials, and basic materials to hide from AI disruption.

Now, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ says the honeymoon is over. Their data shows the HALO basket (GSXUHALT) peaked in late February. Why the sudden U-turn?

Data source:华尔街见闻

1. Indiscriminate Buying Destroyed Fundamentals: Capital flooded into heavy-asset stocks regardless of quality. Goldman noted that low-return, non-growing stocks in their basket actually outperformed peers with real competitive moats (GSTHHAIR). Prices completely decoupled from profit expectations.

2. Valuations Got Too Hot: Heavy-asset stocks lost their "cheap" appeal. Their PE premium hit roughly 3% versus light-asset stocks, placing them in the 62nd percentile historically. They became a crowded, expensive trade.

3. Enter the "REAL" Framework: Bank of America echoed this caution, warning that in markets with ample capacity, "heavy assets" can actually become a liability if AI accelerates alternative tech paths. Instead, they suggest the REAL framework to find true survival moats:

• Regulatory Critical (Banks, Telecoms, Defense)

• Enduring Cycles (Semiconductors, Aerospace, Pharma)

• Asset Heavy (Hard physical constraints like mining or grid utilities)

• Local Services (Hotels, Childcare, on-site IT)

🗣️ Over to You: Time to Rebalance?

With the macroeconomic landscape shifting rapidly and the "AI vs. Physical World" narrative getting complicated, the days of blindly buying heavy assets seem to be over.

How are you positioning your portfolio for the rest of 2026? Are you holding the line on your HALO stocks, pivoting to REAL-tested moats, or keeping your powder dry to trade the next TACO dip?

Leave your comments and win Tiger Coins! 📊

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